CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/10/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03170433
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: October 12, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
12 October 1956
Copy No. 112
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.70.....
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C1,7
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
P,uT H 2
:1-23.:40,f3
DATE:t
REVIEWER
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTENTS
1. THE JORDAN-ISRAEL BORDER SITUATION
(page 3).
2. HUNGARY HERALDS "NEW ERA" OF INDEPENDENT
COMMUNISM (page 4).
3. YUGOSLAV MILITARY DELEGATION VISITS THE USSR
(page 5).
4. PEIPING REPORTEDLY OFFERS TO STOP COMMUNIST
RESISTANCE IN MALAYA (page 6).
5. MILITARY LEADER FORESEES CONSTI TIONAL SUC-
CESSION IN SOUTH KOREA (page 7).
6. HONG KONG RIOTS
(page 8).
7. WET MINH CONCERNED OVER SITUATION IN LAOS
(page 9).
12 Oct 56
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 10)
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1. THE JORDAN-ISRAEL BORDER SITUATION
Comment on:
The heavy Israeli assault on Jordanian
military positions in the Qalqiliya sector,
12 miles northeast of Tel Aviv, on 10
October creates another crisis for the
faltering regime of King Hussain. Faced
with a population embittered by Jordan's
'Weakness, the 21-year-old king's posi-
tion may be further threatened by a
leftist, ultranationalist and antimonarchi-
cal trend in the elections for the lower
house of Jordan's legislature, scheduled for 21 October.
It is unlikely that Jordan will feel
capable of undertaking a military reprisal against Israel;
Jordan has, however, indicated the intention of bringing up
the Israeli attack in the UN.
In addition to retaliating against a known
center of terrorist groups in Jordan, the Israeli assault
destroyed fortifications and tested Jordanian defenses on
a main route to Nablus and the Jordan River. Shortly be-
fore the action, Ambassador Lawson reported that both
strategic and tactical considerations now appeared to be
pulling Israel from a policy of moderation.
12 Oct 56
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2. HUNGARY HERALDS "NEW ERA" OF INDEPENDENT
COMMUNISM
Comment on:
In a frank and revealing comment on
relations with Yugoslavia, a Hungarian
broadcast of 10 October commented
that trips to Belgrade by Hungarian,
Polish, Bulgarian and Rumanian lead-
ers will lead to "noninterference in the
affairs of others and real equality in
principle and practice." The praise of
Tito's fight against the "international
assault of Stalinist tyranny' suggests
that liberalization in Hungarian domes-
tic policy will increase. This could
hasten the reinstatement to party or
overnmen power of ex-premier Nagy, whose domestic
policies resemble those of the Yugoslays.
The broadcast concluded with the state-
ment that the Crimea meeting between Yugoslav and Soviet
leaders gives a "new impetus to the Communists of the
people's democracies to overcome the resistance of the re-
treatingStalinist forces. The broadcast, by implication,
also encouraged more independent thinking by Communists
within the Socialist framework. Thus Hungarians pressing
for moderation appear to be treating the Crimean talks as
a re-endorsement of their views.
The formation of a more liberal Hun-
garian government, possibly including Nagy, may be an-
nounced at the 22 October extraordinary session of the
National Assembly. Politburo member Istvan Kovacs in
a speech on 4 October warned that it was necessary to re-
place those who were unable to adjust to the more liberal
internal policies. Continuing unconfirmed reports of the
gradual removal of anti-Nagyists in middle government and
party ranks, and the recent jailing of several police officials
most responsible for Stalinist excesses, support the theory
that further personnel shifts are in the offing.
12 Oct 56
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3. YUGOSLAV MILITARY DELEGATION VISITS THE USSR
Comment on:
The departure of a Yugoslav army dele-
gation headed by Col. Gen, Pavle Jaksic,
deputy chief of staff, on a "friendly visit"
to the USSR on 10 October may be moti-
vated by a desire to show that normal
relations between Moscow and Belgrade are continuing de-
spite serious ideological differences. It is unlikely that
they are substantially connected with the recent exchanges
at Yalta. Currently, a Yugoslav military delegation is
visiting Communist China and last July, the chief of the
Yugoslav air force led a delegation to the USSR.
Yugoslavia is dependent on outside aid
in building up its military forces. Belgrade may be explor-
ing the possibility of obtaining aid from the USSR in case
American aid is terminated. To date, however, the Yugo-
slays have considered it too risky to accept military assist-
ance from the USSR.
Reports last July that Yugoslavia would
obtain Soviet assistance to construct MIG's were not borne
out. They were probably circulated by the Yugoslays as
part of Belgrade's attempt to pressure the West to support
Yugoslav production of Western-type jets.
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to PEIPING REPORTEDLY OFFERS TO STOP COMMUNIST
RESISTANCE IN MALAYA
The British Foreign Office is perturbed
at the current Chinese Communist
maneuver to obtain official recognition
in Malaya and Singapore of the local
parties. Premier Chou En-lai reportedly told
David Marshall, former chief minister of Singapore, that
he could guarantee fighting in Malaya would stop if the
Malayan Communist Party were recognized.
Chou is reported also to have told a
Singapore-Malayan trade delegation visiting China with
Marshall that he hoped Overseas Chinese would adopt the
nationalities of their countries of residence and no longer
consider themselves Chinese nationals. In the British
view, the local Chinese would be able to work more effec-
tively on behalf of Communist interests in the parliamentary
and political arena as citizens than as aliens.
Comment If the Communist parties in Malaya and
Singapore are given legal status, party
leaders could be expected gradually to assume overt control
over political elements formed by Overseas Chinese who be-
came local citizens. The Chinese now comprise about 38
percent of Malaya's population and 80 percent of the people
in Singapore.
12 Oct 56
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5,
FORESEES CONSTITUTIONAL
SUCCESSION IN SOUTH KOREA
opposition vice president
Chang Myon would probably succeed to the presidency with
the backing of the army in the event of President Rhee's
'death. I army chief of staff Yi Hyong-
kun would support Chang Myon and the Democratic Party
with the idea of controlling the presidency and would en-
force martial law. The Seoul populace would rally to
Chang Myonis support, the police would switch their sup-
port to the DernocraticParty, and the Liberal Party would
disintegrate.
Comment The army, provided it retains its co-
hesion, can determine the outcome of
any succession crisis. Most observers believe it will re-
main responsive to American guidance, and that it would
support a constitutional succession. A period of political
instability, including violence, is likely to occur, however,
while any new regime is attempting to consolidate control.
12 Oct 56
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6� HONG KONG RIOTS
Comment on:
rioters.
A dispute between pro-Nationalist
Chinese and Hong Kong police over
display of the Chinese Nationalist
flag during nationalist celebrations
on 10 October apparently was the
cause of riots termed by police officials
the "worst in a generation:' The US
army attach�elieves that rioting is
being perpetuated by the local secret
criminal societies although Commu-
robably swelling the ranks of the
The rioting illustrates the potentially
explosive situation in Hong Kong, where more than half
the population of about 2,500,000 are refugees living un-
der miserable conditions. Stepped-up Chinese Communist
efforts to win support among this large Hong Kong popula-
tion during the past year have had some success among trade,
'labor, press and educational circles.
In recent weeks. Peiping's propaganda
has been complaining about alleged British infringement of
Chinese rights in restricting free movement across the
Hong Kong border. Communist China may now add denun-
ciation of British failure to protect Hong Kong Chinese
against violence stirred up by "Kuomintang bandits:'
12 Oct 56
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7, VIET MINH CONCERNED OVER SITUATION IN LAOS
The Viet Minh fears American influence
on Laotian premier Souvanna Phouma, whom the Communists
consider to be weak and inconsistent It is also disturbed by
the Indian attitude which aims to attract "Laos into a sphere
of neutralism on the Indian pattern." The Viet Minh, more-
over, characterizes the Pathet Lao as an organization "which
cannot hope to stand on its own feet by the end of the year'
To rectify this situation, directives have
been issued to the cadres to direct their efforts at reducing
American prestige, inducing the Indians to believe "that their
form of neutrality is accepted," and persuading Souvanna Phou-
ma that "the Viet Minh's real desire is to support him."
Comment The Viet Minh has consistently demon-
strated a marked lack of confidence in
Pathet Lao capabilities and must soon decide whether to let
the Pathet Lao come to an agreement with the government.
The Viet Minh is undoubtedly fearful
that once a settlement has been reached Indian efforts will
be directed at lessening Communist influence in Laos.
12 Oct 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 11 October)
Israeli foreign minister Meir told Ambas-
sador Lawson on 10 October that British and Iraqi statements
on a peace settlement based on the 1947 UN resolutions�which
if enforced would deprive Israel of territory--have changed
Israel's attitude toward the entry of Iraqi troops into Jordan.
Mrs. Meir said she believed the entry of Iraqi troops would
be followed by invocation of the Iraqi-Jordanian defense treaty,
and then the Anglo-Jordanian treaty. She said Israel would
fight the British or anyone else rather than yield territory. She
asked for immediate and full information as to the intentions of
Britain and Iraq
Iraqi troops have not yet entered Jordan,
according to the American embassy in Amman. British sources
told embassy officials that the Iraqi build-up was progressing
�at H-3 pumping station in western Iraq and should be completed
by 13 October. The time of entry into Jordan was not known,
but the sources hinted that it could be in a few days. Ambassador
Mallory reports that Britain has given Iraq categorical assurance
of British assistance to Jordan in the event of Israeli aggression
not including "border raids."
France has suggested with regard to the pro-
posed entry of Iraqi troops into Jordan that Britain, France and
the United States guarantee Israel's frontiers and define an area
in Jordan beyond which Iraqi troops would not go. The French
proposal appears to reflect French fears and suspicions of the
British-Iraqi moves as well as the stated need to allay Israeli
fears.
There are Indications that Israel may now
have acquired a total of from 50 to 60 French Mystere IV-A jet
fighters, which would more than double Israel's first-line jet
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fighter strength. This additional air strength would again give
Israel air superiority over the Arab states.
The American army attach�n Damascus
reports that the strength of the Syrian army appears to be on the
rise again and has probably increased by 3,000 to a total of
65,000.
(See also item 1, Po 3.)
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