CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/12/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169440
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: December 14, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
14 December 1956
Copy No. 112
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
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CONTENTS
1. SUEZ CANAL CLEARANCE OPERATIONS
(page 3).
2, SOVIET FORCES IN GERMANY CRITICIZED FOR POOR
STATE OF READINESS (page 5).
S. HUNGARIAN REGIME STEPS UP REPRESSIVE TACTICS
AS VIOLENCE MOUNTS (page 6).
4. SOVIET SUBMARINE PROBABLY FITTED FOR MISSILE
�.1jAIMIC
ING SIGHTED NEAR LENINGRAD
(page 8).
5. SABOTEURS REPORTEDLY ENTER IRAQ
(page 9).
6. USSR TURNS DOWN SYRIAN REQUEST FOR PUBLIC STATE-
MENT OF SUPPORT (page 10).
7. EGYPTIAN JET BOMBERS RETURN FROM SANCTUARY IN
SAUDI ARABIA (page 11).
8. U NU MAY INCLUDE COMMUNIST LEADERS IN
ANY NEW BURMESE CABINET (page 12).
9. SUKARNO MAY EXPLOIT DEMANDS FOR INDONESIAN
CABINET CHANGES (page 13).
10. MOLLET GOVERNMENT'S FALL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
YEAR (page 14).
ANNEX -- Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelli-
gence Advisory Committee
(page 15).
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N. L.4
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1. SUEZ CANAL CLEARANCE OPERATIONS
Comment on:
;
Lt. General Wheeler, chief of UN sal-
vage operations, has reported that the
28-vessel UN salvage fleet is ready to
begin operations; he has organized the
fleet on the assumption he can use six
British vessels which are at present ac-
tually attached to wrecks they are lift-
ing. Wheeler has notified the French
and the British that the political direc-
tive under which he is operating does
not permit him to begin clearance opera-
tions until the last British and French
troops have left, and that he cannot retain
any British and French crews except
'three men on each of the six vessels for training purposes.
Hammarskj old reportedly has Egyptian
agreement that the UN can use any equipment it desires, re-
gardless of source, and that clearance can begin as soon as
British-French withdrawal is completed. Insistence by
Britain and France on the use of all their 40-vessel salvage
fleet and personnel may jeopardize the UN arrangements for
clearing the canal, according to Secretary General Hammar-
skjold. The secretary general has proposed to Egypt that
the present British salvage force at Port Said--believed to
consist of 25 vessels--continue clearing the main channel
there. When this work is completed, the British salvage
force can be phased out and replaced with UN personnel and
vessels so that work will not have to be interrupted. Egyp-
tian foreign minister Fawzi has agreed to recommend that
�his government accept the UN proposal.
The first objective of the UN clearance
operations is to clear a narrow one-way channel of 25-foot
draft the entire length of the canal, approximately 104 miles.
Britain has cleared such a channel from Port Said to the
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cease-fire line at El Cap, a distance of some 22 miles.
Completing clearance of this narrow channel for the length
of the canal involves the removal of nine major obstructions,
including two wrecked bridges. Wheeler estimates that this
limited clearance, which will not open the canal to large
loaded tankers, can be completed by 1 March. He has not
given an official estimate on how long it will take to open the
canal for full normal use.
American naval officials report that the
clearance of obstacles is not expected to end blockage prob-
lems. Long silting without dredging operations will probably
result in blockage due to grounding of vessels even after sal-
vage operations are completed.
14 Dec 56
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Nome
2. SOVIET FORCES IN GERMANY CRITICIZED FOR POOR
STATE OF READINESS
Marshal Grechko, commander of the
Group of Soviet Forces in Germany,
(GSFG) complained about the state of
readiness of his troops at a Soviet Corn-
many last month,
He noted that Soviet troops have been pre-
paring for movement toward the West, but have completely
neglected planning for deployment eastward. During recent
alerts, troops assembled slowly and some units arrived at
their destinations without ammunition and adequate supplies.
Grechko reported, also, that the results of training in the
GSFG in 1956 were poorer than in 1955.
The Soviet Ministry of Defense has issued
an order calling for a series of training alerts for the GSM
in which particular attention will be directed to large head-
quarters units which are seldom assembled for alerts.
Comment The lack of preparation was obvious dur-
ing the deployment of GSFG units to the
Polish border in October. The annual fall maneuvers this
year were brief, including only two major exercises. Units
reportedly had returned from the field to their home stations
earlier than usual because of Soviet concern over possible de-
velopments in the Satellites and the Soviet zone of Germany.
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3. HUNGARIAN REGIME STEPS UP REPRESSIVE TACTICS
AS VIOLENCE MOUNTS
Comment on:
The Hungarian regime has accelerated
all aspects of its program of repression.
On 12 December the regime decreed a
mandatory death sentence for all crimi-
nal violations of martial law, arrested the
president of the now-outlawed Budapest
Central Workers' Council, and began a
propaganda campaign stressing the ar-
rest of large numbers of resisting forces.
The 48-hour general strike, described by
the American legation as almost 100 percent effective in
Budapest, came to an end the morning of 12 December, but
the announced arrest of the Budapest Workers' Council presi-
dent reportedly caused a great many of the workers in the
city to resume the strike. A break in the hitherto solid front
of revolutionary forces has been reported by one American
correspondent in Budapest, who claims that trouble between
the workers and the peasants has flared in the city market
places. This friction was reportedly caused by worker re-
sentment of increasingly high food prices.
Press reports of violent outbursts in
Budapest and in the provinces have been partially substan-
tiated by some of the regime's own admissions and by ob-
servations by US legation personnel.
The regime has been able to increase the
size of militia forces combating the workers, according to
the legation, but these forces appear to be fearful of the pop-
ulation and more than a little willing to leave the "really rough
situations" to the regular security units, which are composed
primarily of former security police personnel. The Soviet
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troops have maintained their heavy patrols, but have been
careful not to become engaged in the fighting. In the opinion
of the legation, however, continued strife is forcing the
USSR more and more out of the policy of waiting for the pop-
ulation to tire of resistance and more and more toward the
hard choice of whether to use greater terror or to make some
sign of concession or willingness to compromise.
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4. SOVIET SUBMARINE PROBABLY FITTED FOR MISSILE
LAUNCHING SIGHTED NEAR LENINGRAD
sighted in ICronstadt a Soviet submarine
on which was mounted a cylindrical tank
apprwdmately 22 feet long and eight feet
n diameter and possibly an inclined ramp, both located aft
f the conning tower.
Comment The submarine, probably fitted to carry
and launch guided missiles, appeared to
be a modified version of the long-range "W-class" series,
of which over 200 have been constructed since 1950. Soviet
submarines with apparently similar modifications were re-
ported in the Northern Fleet area in July and in the Sea of
Japan in November. Such modification of Soviet submarines
probably would be an interim measure until the USSR devel-
oped a submarine capable of internal stowage, permitting a
larger number of missiles to be carried.
The USSR is believed to have been capable
since 1955 of launching subsonic missiles of 500-nautical-
mile range from submarines. The extensive employment Of
Soviet long-range submarines to carry guided missiles was
indicated by party leader Ichrushchev last spring when he said
that a submarine equipped with guided missiles is the "most
suitable naval weapon" and that its development would be em-
phasized by the Soviet navy.
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5. SABOTEURS REPORTEDLY ENTER IRAQ
Arab agents had entered Iraq to carry
out acts of sabotage.
Comment
Syria and Egypt apparently are step-
ping up their efforts to unseat Iraq's
Prime Minister Nun i Said.
Syrian army intelligence was trying to instigate
an Iraqi military coup against the Nun i government and try-
ing to create the maximum possible tension in Iraq. The ac-
tivities of the Arab agents in Iraq would presumably include
attempts to destroy Iraq Petroleum Company installations
at Kirkuk and Mosul, and terrorist bombing attacks in the
principal Iraqi cities.
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6. USSR TURNS DOWN SYRIAN REQUEST FOR PUBLIC
STATEMENT OF SUPPORT
The USSR has turned down a Syrian
request for a public statement of sup-
port as "no longer a matter of moment,"
Soviet officials explained
that tensions had begun to diminish and that the Western na-
tions "are not expected to undertake any action at this time!'
The officials said that the idea of a statement and a plan to
bring the Syrian case to the UN "would not have the desired
effect!'
Comment The shipment to Syria of 12 Soviet
MIG-17's expected to arrive on 12
December reflects Moscow's confidence that it can step up
its military assistance to the Arab states while gaining credit
for reducing tension through diplomatic and propaganda ma-
neuvers. On 8 December the USSR issued a statement with-
drawing the implied Soviet threat to send volunteers to Egypt.
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7. EGYPTIAN JET BOMBERS RETURN FROM SANCTUARY
IN SAUDI ARABIA
Comment on:
The 20 Egyptian IL-28 jet light bombers
and 10 IL-14 twin-engined transports
which took refuge in Saudi Arabia from
Anglo-French air attacks in early No-
vember probably returned to Egypt between 1 and 10 Decem-
ber. An initial group of five IL-28's left Saudi Arabia for
Luxor in Egypt on 1 December,
No Egyptian aircraft were noted during
observations of Saudi airfields on 10 December.
Nasr is reliably reported to have ad-
mitted privately the loss of 56 IvIIG-15 jet fighters, 24 IL-28
jet light bombers, and about 40 transports and miscellaneous
types during the hostilities.
at least 10 MIG-15's operational in Egypt. This number may
have been increased by repair of damaged aircraft or assem-
bly of some which may not have been uncrated.
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8. U NU MAY INCLUDE COMMUNIST FRONT LEADERS
IN ANY NEW BURMESE CABINET
When U Nu resumes the prime minister-
ship in early 1957, the Burmese cabinet
will be reshuffled by dropping two top
Socialist ministers and adding two rep-
Communist-dominated National United
Front,
One of the Front leaders allegedly
slated to enter the cabinet is a non-Communist. The other,
however, is Thetpongyi Thein Pe Myint, a Communist of
long standing despite an ostensible break with the Burma
Communist Party when it went underground in 1948.
This reflects the continuing strug-
gle between U Nu and a strong faction of the Socialist Party
headed by Kyaw Nyein, one of the ministers reportedly sched-
uled to be dropped. Nu
stated that he could work better as prime min-
ister if supported y a more all-embracing coalition which
would attract "disillusioned" members of the pro-Commu-
nist opposition.
While numerous reports point to Nut im-
minent return to power, there are indications that the matter
has not been finally decided. Prime Minister Ba Swe has thus
far remained noncommittal on relinquishing his office.
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9. SUKARNO MAY EXPLOIT DEMANDS FOR INDONESIAN
CABINET CHANGES
President Sukarno may take advantage
of revived demands for changes in the
Indonesian cabinet to assert greater
personal authority. There has been in-
Icreasing mention of the possibility of a "presidential cabi-
net:' Moreover,
Sukarno is planning to call a meeting of tne lead-
�fJIrnajor political parties and attempt to form a
"control body: This body, under the president, would
"direct" the actions of both the parliament and the cabinet.
Any such development would facilitate
Sukarno's plans for a "guided democracy" and for the de-
emphasis of political parties. The president announced
last month that he would offer definite suggestions in mid-
December to achieve these goals.
Meanwhile, the present cabinet's posi-
tion is being weakened by a new interrogation of Foreign
Minister Abdulgani on corruption charges, jockeying for
position among the small government parties, and general
criticism over the cabinet's continued inaction on pressing
domestic problems.
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1.1.4
10. MOLLET GOVERNMENT'S FALL EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT YEAR
Leaders of two parties on which
French premier Mollet has frequently
depended for parliamentary support ex-
pect him to be overthrown at the end of
January barring a major international
crisis at the time. They told American
officials in Paris on 11 December that a
budget debate in January on the Algerian
and Suez operations will provoke the government's fall. The
embassy comments that these predictions appear premature,
but it acknowledges that Monet has slipped seriously since the
failure of his Suez policy.
Comment During Mollet's premiership there has
been little speculation on his early over-
throw, and the careful calculations of various parties to avoid
an upset in the 10 December budget debates indicate assembly
unwillingness to unseat him now. If the economic repercussions
from the Suez and Algerian disturbances ,get worse, Monet will
probably be overthrown.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 332, 13 December 1956,
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
� A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad,... US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East is
improbable in the immediate future. The USSR is con-
tinuing to give diplomatic, propaganda, and material sup-
port to Egypt and Syria.
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