CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/12/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169437
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: December 8, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
3.3(h)(2)
8 December 19563.5(c)
/4/
V/ ff',;(ffarA
C opy No 11i2
NO CHANGE" IN
13 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED 70: TS
NEXT REVIEW 0pTE:
AUIN. 70-2
VIEWER:.
DA1.
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
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CONTENTS
1. HUNGARIAN REGIME MOVES TO CRUSH WORKER
RESISTANCE (page 3).
2. DALAI LAMA MAY SEEK ASYLUM DURING INDIA VISIT
(page 4).
3. JORDAN ASKS WITHDRAWAL OF IRAQI TROOPS
(page 5)0
4. EGYPT PREPARES FOR SABOTAGE OF BRITISH OIL
INSTALLATIONS IN ARABIA (page 6).
5. LIBERALS TO HEAD NEW POLISH ECONOMIC COUNCIL
(page 7).
6. VATICAN POSITION ON POLISH WESTERN TERRITORIES
UNCHANGED (page 8).
7. INDONESIAN POLITICAL CRISIS DEVELOPING
(page 9).
8. BRITISH REPORT IMPORTANT SUCCESSES AGAINST COM-
MUNISTS IN MALAYA (page pa).
9. BRITAIN APPARENTLY TO GIVE UP BASES IN CEYLON
(page 11).
10. BRITAIN MAY REDUCE FORCES IN GERMANY
(page 12).
8 Dec 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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1. HUNGARIAN REGIME MOVES TO CRUSH
WORKER RESISTANCE
Following almost a week of popular
demonstrations in Budapest sometimes
reaching violence, Hungarian security
units--backed by Soviet military per-
sonnel--have arrested large numbers
of students, intellectuals, workers and
representatives of the various workers'
councils. The regime conceded on 7
December that a "few hundred" had been
arrested, and the American legation re-
ports that Budapest is tense with fear of
further arrests.
In an apparent attempt to justify the wave
of arrests, the Kadar regime has denounced worker groups
still "disturbing the peace" as counterrevolutionaries who
must be apprehended in order to restore order. In addition,
small groups of AVH personnel in civilian clothes have pre-.
cipitated fights with anti-Kadar demonstrators to provide
further justification for arrests and a general tightening of
internal security.
The Central Workers' Council of Buda-
pest threatened on 7 December that if the arbitrary arrests
continue, the "workers will turn against the government
for good and the end will be a general strike, bloodshed and
a new national tragedy:' The council was to meet with Pre-
mier Kadar on 7 December to press for the release of re-
cently seized workers and labor leaders and the right to
publish a paper. The council has succeeded ii distributing
throughout much of the country leaflets defying the Kadar
regime's recent strong-arm methods. The regime radio has
admitted that "opposition" elements have been active in scat-
tered areas in Hungary, and that most coal miners have again
left their jobs. '
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2. DALAI LAMA MAY SEEK ASYLUM DURING INDIA VISIT
The Dalai Lama plans to seek asylum
during his present visit to India,
leader. The="TilielTriewhb are supporting the move Wei mat
the Dalai Lama's absence from Tibetwould free the people at
home for widespread resistance, and that with the support of
friendly powers, he could become an independent force for
liberation of the country.
The Dalai Lama reportedly is trying to
determine whether or not he can obtain financial and political
support from India. If India refuses, he reportedly will ask
for asylum for himself and other officials in some Buddhist
country. If this also fails, he will return to Tibet to continue
passive resistance there.
In his initial talks with Prime Minister
Nehru, the Dalai Lama did not bring up the matter of asylum.
He only asked Nehru's advice on how to deal with Chinese Com-
munist encroachments, which he claimed had violated the
Sino-Tibetan agreement of 1951 formalizing Peiping's control
over Tibet.
Although sympathetic to Tibetan aspira-
tions for independence, Nehru reportedly told the Dalai Lama
that Tibet's only recourse at this time is to seek a larger meas-
ure of autonomy under Communist China's sovereignty, which
India recognizes.
The Dalai Lama reportedly hopes to see
Nehru again after the latter's return from the United States.
Comment The Dalai Lama presumably will have de-
cided upon his future action by the time he
sees Nehru again. Nehru will probably make every effort to
discourage his plans, to flee Tibet, especially since India is
now host to Chou En-lai, who reportedly has requested and re-
ceived assurance that India would not encourage the Dalai Lama
to stay in India. However, if the Dalai Lama requests a longer
stay, Nehru can hardly force him to return to Tibet.
8 Dec 56
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3. JORDAN ASKS WITHDRAWAL OF IRAQI TROOPS
Comment
The Jordanian government presumably
now regards the Iraqi troops, who en-
tered at Jordan's request on 3 November to help defend
against a possible Israeli attack, as a political liability be-
cause of Iraq's identification with British policy. The Iraqis
have viewed the presence of the 3,000-3,500 Iraqi troops in
Jordan as insurance against attempts to bring Jordan still
closer to the pro-Egyptian bloc.
8 Dec 56
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OLLOLAR.C. I
4. EGYPT PREPARES FOR SABOTAGE OF BRITISH OIL
INSTALLATIONS IN ARABIA
Comment on:
Egypt has stepped up prep-
arations for sabotage of British oil in-
stallations in Kuwait and possibly in Aden.
Cairo had made British oil installations
in Kuwait a sabotage target, and attempted to send explosives
and trained personnel into this area, as well as to Bahrein and
Qatar.
Kuwait's oil prodaction, whic4 is the larg-
est in the Middle East and amounted to over a million and a
half barrels a day prior to the blocking of the Suez Canal, is
owned equally by British and American interests. The output
of Kuwait's small 28,000-barrel-a-day refinery is consumed
locally.
an Egyptian-trained saboteur returned w x emen i. 111 CAM ui
November with plans of Aden harbor and several cases of ex-
plosives and detonators.
Aden has a large new British refinery
with a capacity of 120,000 barrels a day which processes Per-
sian Gulf crude.
8 Dec 56
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v1/41.,
5. LIBERALS TO HEAD NEW POLISH ECONOMIC COUNCIL
The Polish radio announcement on 5 Decem-
ber of the imminent appointment of Oskar
Lange and Czeslaw Bobrowski as chairman
and deputy chairman of the newly formed
Economic Council of the Polish Council of
Ministers illustrates the emphasis now being placed by the new
regime on technical competence of personnel chosen to direct
the economy along more liberal lines. Lange, a former Social-
ist, is Poland's most prominent economist. Bobrowski, also
an experienced economist and administrator, is a steadfast So-
cialist and has been living in France since his defection in 1950.
In an article published last July, Lange out-
lined the essential elements of a new liberalized economic pol-
icy very similar to that subsequently enunciated by Gomulka at
the eighth plenum of the Polish United Workers (Communist)
-
Party (PZPR). He has managed to survive the welter of post-
war economic policy changes relatively unscathed, emerging
now in the apparent role of architect of Gomulkats new economic
program for Poland. He spent the years from 1934 to 194'7 in
the United States, first in the academic world and later, after
renouncing his newly won American citizenship in 1945, as
Polish ambassador to the United States.
Bobrowski is highly regarded by old-line
Polish Socialists. After serving with the government-in-exile
in London, he returned to Warsaw in 1946 as chairman of the
State Planning Commission. He held this position until 1948,
when he was forced to resign as a consequence of his close iden-
tification with the right wing of the Polish Socialist Party. He
was subsequently appointed minister to Sweden.
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6. VATICAN POSITION ON POLISH WESTERN
TERRITORIES UNCHANGED
The Polish government newspaper on
5 December stated that the Vatican's
agreement to appoint bishops in Poland's
western territories does not mean a
change in the Holy See's policy that the
po ica u n of the Oder-Neisse frontier remains to
be settled in a peace treaty. The official Polish news a-
gency had previously claimed the Vatican's action was
"confirmation of the inviolability of the frontiers of the
republic on the Oder and Neisse and the Baltic!'
The Vatican may have made Poland's
public acknowledgment of the church's unchanged position
on the Oder-Neisse issue a condition for the episcopal ap-
pointments.
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7. INDONESIAN POLITICAL CRISIS DEVELOPING
The reported decision of Indonesia's
largest Moslem party, the Masjumi,
to withdraw from the cabinet suggests
that a major political crisis is devel-
oping. Accoramg to the editor of a leading Djakarta news-
paper, this decision will be announced at the Masjumi
congress scheduled for 22-28 December.
The withdrawal of the Masjumi from
Indonesia's coalition government would culminate a long
period of dissatisfaction over corruption and government
mismanagement, as well as concern over unrest in the
army and President Sukarno's advocacy of "guided demop.=
racy."
Should the Masjumi leave the government,
it would almost certainly look to former vice president Hatta
for leadership. Hatta, in any bid for power, would probably
have the strong backing of Indonesia's other major Moslem
party, the Nandlatul Ulama (NU). These two parties,Tepre-
senting about 50 percent of the voting public, could count on
the support of various small parties, and might therefore be
able to organize a new government. The National Party,
however, supported by Sukarno, could be expected either to
offer the NU strong inducement not to defect or to accept
openly the full support of the Communist Party.
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8. BRITISH REPORT IMPORTANT SUCCESSES AGAINST
COMMUNISTS IN MALAYA
LOMMUllibt
rilla strength, now estimated at 2,100,
can be reduced to 1,000 if British forces
remain in Malaya or two years after independence in August
1957, Without British troops, however, he foresees a stale-
mate followed by a negotiated peace, which would permit the
Malayan Communist Party ico engage in overt united-front tac-
tics�
the Communist polit-
ical underground organization in Malaya has been almost com-
pletely destroyed. The Communist courier communications
system has been so disrupted by government operations that
policy guidance and tactical direction are now provided by Radio
Peiping. the Communists plan
to recruit former Malayan Communists now resident in other
Southeast Asian countries, India, and China in order to set up
a new subversive organization�
Comment Although Communist armed strength in
Malaya has been declining steadily since
its peak of between 5,000 and 6,000 in 1953, this is the most
optimistic view to date of the success achieved by the British
campaign against the terrorists.
Malayan chief minister Rahman has stated
he will not negotiate with the Communists, and will meet Com-
munist leader Cheng Ping only if Cheng agrees beforehand to
complete capitulation. Pressures on Rahman for a negotiated
peace, however, will undoubtedly increase after independence
is achieved.
8 Dec 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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9, BRITAIN APPARENTLY TO GIVE UP BASES IN CEYLON
Britain has apparently agreed to give
up its naval base at Trincomalee and its
airfield at Katunayake, north of Colombo.
Prime Minister Bandaranaike told news-
men in London on 5 December that the
"sooner the UK quits the bases the better!'
In Karachi, on his way home, Bandaranaike
said that Britain would give up these mili-
tary bases next year.
Prior to the British intervention in Suez,
which caused a storm of protest in Ceylon, Bandaranaike had
apparently been willing to postpone base negotiations almost
indefinitely or permit British use of the bases under Ceylonese
control despite his election promises to obtain British with-
drawal from the bases.
The British presumably bowed to Ban-
daranaike's demand in order to avoid further strain on Ceylon's
attachment to the Commonwealth. British military authorities
for some months have been considering several alternatives to
the bases in Ceylon�principally Mombasa, Aden, and the Mal-
dive Islands.
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10, BRITAIN MAY REDUCE FORCES IN GERMANY
A high British Foreign Office official
reportedly has stated that Britain would
not be able to maintain the present level
of its forces in Germany because of
economic troubles. This information comes from German
officials, one of whom said that .a reduction did not seem im-
mediate, but might occur in late 1957 or early 1958.
Comment This supports other indications that London
is convidering a substantial reduction of
its forces in Germany. The Canadian under secretary for ex-
ternal affairs told the American ambassador in Ottawa on 4
December that he feared Britain was contemplating partial
withdrawal in the near future.
In the NATO annual review of military plans,
Britain said its forces would be maintained at present levels
during 1957, but declined to project its plans into the second
and third years as is customary. Britain has already with--
drawn at least 3,000 troops, mainly service and support ele-
ments, from Germany since August because of the Middle East
crisis. Britain maintains four army divisions and one tactical
air force in Germany.
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