CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/12/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169436
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: December 7, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
7 December 1956
Copy No. 1i
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ip
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
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CONTENTS
L NUCLEAR TESTS LIKELY TO BECOME MAJOR ISSUE
AT UN (page 3).
2. SYRIAN EFFORTS FOR COUP IN IRAQ REPORTED UN-
SUCCESSFUL page 4).
3. POLAND MAKES SECOND EFFORT TO DELIVER SUB-
MARINE TO EGYPT (page 5).
4. BRITISH REINFORCE BASES IN ARABIA
(page 6).
5. CHIANG KAI-SHEK REJECTS RHEE PROPOSAL FOR
PARALLEL MILITARY ACTION (page 7).
6. BULGARIAN OFFICIALS ACT TO COMBAT OPPOSITION
(page 8).
7. BURMA'S STAND ON HUNGARY
(page 9).
ANNEX -- Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelli-
gence Advisory Committee
(page 10).
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I. NUCLEAR TESTS LIKELY TO BECOME MAJOR
ISSUE AT UN
The growing apprehension among UN
members about the effects of increased
radiation has led to proposals by Norway
and Canada for limiting nuclear tests.
A Canadian UN delegate told Ambassador
Lo ge n 5. DeceThr that his government's proposal for a
voluntary limit on the number of tests was designed primar-
ily as a "trial balloon" to forestall proposals for a complete
ban on testing. He added that Ottawa was disturbed by re-
ports of high concentrations of radioactivity in British Colum-
bia, and has filed them with the UN radiation committee.
The Norwegian foreign minister, in his
27 November policy speech before the UN, called for advanced
registration with the UN of any "weapons tests expected to
cause measurable, world-wide radioactive fallout!' He had
previously told the American embassy that the pressure of
public opinion regarding the high increase of radioactivity in
September made it essential for his government to raise the
issue in this session.
India can be expected to raise the issue
of banning the tests entirely. Prime Minister Nehru is ex-
pected to discuss this issue when he comes to the United States
on 16 December. The USSR has attempted to seize the initia-
tive on this issue at this assembly by calling for an uncondi-
tional ban on testing in its 17 November disarmament statement.
7 Dec 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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2. SYRIAN EFFORTS FOR COUP IN IRAQ
REPORTED UNSUCCESSFUL
Efforts of Syrian army officers to "stir
up some of the units inside Iraq" for an
Iraqi army coup against Nun i Said have
so far met with no success,
although some Iraqi officers stationed in
Jordan "were ready to revolt," he doubted that this would
be "a decisive act which would settle the issue in Iraq!' Such
a move by the troops in Jordan, he said, would end in fail-
ure and jeopardize any movement "which may arise in the
future:,
Comment
The Syrians might seek to use the Iraqi
force in Jordan�between 3,000 and 3,500 troops--as a nucleus
for a military revolt against Nun's government when these
troops are recalled to Iraq. Other reports have indicated con-
siderable pro-Nasr sentiment among the Iraqi troops in Jordan.
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POLAND MAKES SECOND EFFORT TO DELIVER SUBMARINE
TO EGYPT
Cairo
agreed to
contract for "five experts" and directed
that they should arrive at the same time
as the "small submarine!'
Comment The submarine is probably one of the two
which were scheduled for delivery under
the first Soviet bloc-Egyptian arms agreement in 1955.
A Soviet-built coastal submarine had left
Poland in October and was in the Mediterranean en route to
Egypt when hostilities broke out in the Suez area. The craft
reversed course on 1 November and returned to Poland.
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4� BRITISH REINFORCE BASES IN ARABIA
The combat and security capability of
British forces in the Aden-Persian Gulf
area has been materially increased as a
result of recent reinforcements.
The 24th Infantry Brigade headquarters,
with one of its three organic battalions, has recently been
dispatched to the Arabian Peninsula where it will assume
control over three other, and heretofore separate, infantry
battalions deployed in Aden and Bahrein. In Britain the bri-
gade was trained as a special mobile force. The brigade
headquarters and two battalions will probably be stationed
in Aden, with the other two battalions remaining at Bahrein.
The strength of British units in the Aden-Persian Gulf area
is now about 4,500--augmented by units of British-led in-
ternal security troops.
Britain's efforts to form a co-ordinated
permanent defense force in South Arabia probably reflects
growing concern over the delivery of Soviet bloc arms to
Yemen in October, Yemen, with Egyptian and Saudi Arabian
encouragement and support, has long attempted to promote
unrest against British authority in Aden protectorate and
colony.
Britain's reinforcement of the Arabian
bases is also probably intended to offset the decline in its
prestige in the area, and to protect vital oil producing and
refining properties. When the reinforcement becomes known
to the Saudi Arabians and the Yemenis, they will probably
charge Britain with new aggressive moves in the area.
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*ear' 11101
5- CHIANG KAI-SHEK REJECTS RHEE PROPOSAL FOR
PARALLEL MILITARY ACTION
Chiang Kai-shek has
rejected a South Korean
proposal for parallel military action against
North Korea and Communist China. Chiang
allegedly tom tne bouth Korean ambassador that he regards the
recent revolts within the Sino-Soviet bloc as encouraging, but
that better opportunities will develop in the future.
Rhee stated
that unrest behind the iron curtain calls tor " consicteration"
of parallel military action against North Korea and the China
mainland. Rhee reportedly stated that if unrest on the main-
land is sufficient to favor such a move, he is prepared to de-
nounce the Korean armistice and to move militarily at the
same time as the Nationalists. Chiang said he replied, how-
ever, that the unrest was "too scattered and remote to be com-
pared with the Hungarian situation in terms of opportunity for
exploitation."
Comment
Chiang's attitude reflects his belief that US
assistance must be obtained for any military
action against the mainland.
South Korea has resumed small-scale hit-and-run raids
north of the 38th parallel. The government has also adopted a
series of measures designed to improve combat readiness, but
there are no positive indications of imminent large-scale mili-
tary action.
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6. BULGARIAN OFFICIALS ACT TO COMBAT OPPOSITION
Comment on:
The Bulgarian regime has reportedly
armed Communist officials, tightened
security measures on the border with
Yugoslavia, demoted two high-ranking
military leaders, and purged 200 army
officers in a series of moves reflecting
its concern over popular discontent.
all military officers and high-ranking
party members have been instructed to
carry arms, reversing an earlier order.
This may have been prompted by the
posting of threatening notes on the homes of medium-rank
officials and party members,
a new border guard detachment
may nave been auLivateu at:61A 30 October along the southern
portion of the Yugoslav-Bulgarian border. Bulgarian sol-
diers also reportedly have begun to replace the barbed wire
fencing where it had been removed along the Yugoslav frontier
and are playing searchlights on the border area at night in an
attempt to prevent any crossing.
In addition to the reported dismissal of
some 200 army officers for unreliability, Yonko Panov--
probably the leader of an opposition faction within the party
central committee--and one other general have reportedly
been relieved from their commands and demoted. Various
"Titoists," former minority party leaders, and unreliable
military officers released over the past two years reportedly
have been rearrested. Travelers arriving in Vienna from
� Sofia report the deportation to northeastern Bulgaria of ele-
ments considered unreliable.
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BURMA'S STAND ON HUNGARY
Comment on:
Burma's revulsion over the Hungarian
situation, in contrast to the vacillating attitude adopted by
India and Indonesia, has been openly expressed by Prime Min-
ister Ba Swe, who argued for a strong condemnation of Moscow
at the recent meeting of the Colombo powers. More recently,
the Burmese delegation to the United Nations was instructed to
support any efforts to get the Russians out of Hungary, and was
informed that Rangoon would consider supporting sanctions
against the USSR if such actions were proposed in the General
Assembly.
The Burmese attitude on Hungary may have
significant repercussions. It is likely to dampen enthusiasm
for closer relations with the Sino-Soviet bloc, complicate nego-
tiations for Soviet economic and technical assistance, and color
the Burmese attitude toward Chou En-lai during his visit next
week.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 331, 6 December 1956,
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit. Soviet alerts and other military activities
in the Satellites and the USSR continue on a reduced scale.
C There are no known Soviet military moves which reflect
a Soviet intention to intervene unilaterally in the Middle
East. Although tensions continue within Syria and Iraq
and between Syria and its neighbors, particularly Iraq,
a deliberate initiation of hostilities in the area is im-
probable in the immediate future. Tensions over the
Suez Canal problem have been reduced as a result of the
announced intention of the British and French to withdraw
their troops.
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