CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/07/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169385
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: July 16, 1957

Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03169385
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
16 July 1957
Copy No.
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TS 4WD_
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
/
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CONTENTS
1. USSR LAUNCHES THIRD MISSILE IN THREE WEEKS TO
950-MILE RANGE (page 3).
fr 2. EAST GERMAN COMMUNISTS PRESSING ULBRICHT FOR
LIBERALIZATION (page 4).
6 3. EAST GERMAN-POLISH RELATIONS WORSENING
(page 5).
4. INDIAN VIEWS ON SITUATION IN MOSCOW
(page 6).
HANGE OF GOVERNMENT IN NEPAL
(page 7).
6. TRUCE COMMISSION CHAIRMAN URGES UNIFICATION
ELECTIONS IN VIETNAM (page 8).
\ 7. SHOWDOWN BETWEEN LEFTISTS AND MODERATES MAY
BE DEVELOPING IN BOLIVIA (page 9).
16 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1- USSR LAUNCHES THIRD MISSILE IN THREE WEEKS
TO 950-MILE RANGE
Reference:
The third 950-nautical-mile Soviet
ballistic missile was launched from
Kapustin Yar on 13 July. Previous
launchings occurred on 22 June and
4 July. The firing of three 950-mile
missiles within three weeks (in addition to eight firings of
other missiles to shorter ranges) with only minor delays
indicates an excellent launching reliability for this new mis-
sile series in its initial firings. These missiles, when op-
erational, could have a range of 1,000 to 1,200 nautical miles.
16 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin
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2. EAST GERMAN COMMUNISTS PRESSING ULBRICHT
FOR LIBERALIZATION
Following the Kremlin purges, top-
level functionaries in the East German
Socialist Unity (Communist) Party (SED)
began attempting to persuade First
Secretary Ulbricht to adopt a more conciliatory line,
Among these was Karl Schirdewan, the second
most important person in the SED. Ulbricht is said to have
replied that his policies have been completely correct and that
he sees no reason to alter them.
SED m milers in RPrlin hair? P�srnriassPri thp
hope that Ulbricht will go.
party circles are speculating that Ulbricht will be
the scapegoat for economic failures.
Ulbricht could be purged without loss of face "as
soon as the Western nress ceased speculating" on his possible
ouster.
16 .July 57
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TIL. TIM!
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3. EAST GERMAN-POLISH RELATIONS WORSENING
East German Socialist
Unity (Communist) Party (SED) emis-
sary. sent to Warsaw
reported that the Poles
are arrogant and independent and want nothing to do with the
SED, and that this attitude has sharpened since the Soviet
purge. The most popular Pole, he said, is the one who rails
most against East Germany.
his old Communist friends would hardly give him the time of
day. He now considers that Zenon Nowak, formerly a Nato-
linist (Stalinist), is against the SED.
Nowak told him, "First the SED must better itself and change
its policies; then we will be willing to engage in serious talks."
it is useless for
him to return to Poland as he cannot fulfill his assigned task in
the present atmosphere; such a mission, he said, should have
been undertaken years ago. He considers that Gomulka is de-
termined to follow Tito and that only the USSR can "realign"
the Poles.
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4. INDIAN VIEWS ON SITUATION IN MOSCOW
Nehru, like Menon, seems to feel that
any Soviet experiment in the direction of "normalization" of
internal and external relationships should be treated sympathet-
ically by the outside world, since a harsh reception might cause
Moscow to revert to Stalinism.
16 July 57
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5, CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT IN NEPAL
Comment on:
The King of Nepal on 14 July accepted
the resignation of Tanka Prasad Acharya's
government and asked Dr. K. I. Singh to
try to form a coalition government within
two weeks. Singh is the political leader
who spent three years in exile in Communist China following an
abortive coup in 1952, but he is now believed to be co-operating
closely with New Delhi.
Considerable speculation has surrounded
SinghIs activities since he returned to Nepal in 1955 as it was
widely suspected that he might be operating as an agent of
Peiping. However, while building his new political organiza-
tion, the United Democratic Party, Singh has repeatedly ex-
pressed his support for a constitutional monarchy and for co-
operation with India. He has opposed closer relations with
Communist China.
While these sentiments could conceal pro-
Communist leanings, increasing evidence since last fall sug-
gests that Singh has reached an understanding with New Delhi.
The Indian government has shown growing concern over the out-
going prime minister's pro-Chinese policies, and may have de-
cided to throw its influence in Nepal behind Singh as the best
hope for establishing a stable government under which India's
"special interest" in the Himalayan state would be protected.
16 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
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6. TRUCE COMMISSION CHAIRMAN URGES UNIFICATION
ELECTIONS IN VIETNAM
Comment on:
T. N. Kaul, Indian chairman of the
Vietnam truce commission, has pre-
sented forcefully to Western repre-
sentatives in Saigon the merits of
holding early elections for the unification of North and South
Vietnam. Kaul contends current disaffection in Communist
North Vietnam would result in a pro-Diem majority in care-
fully supervised elections, but warns that the Viet Minh's re-
consolidation program will have North Vietnam under control
by the end of 1958, if not before.
While India's long-range views have al-
ways supported the holding of unification elections as called
for by the 1954 Geneva agreement, Kaurs proposal is a sharp
change from New Delhi's tactical acceptance in the past of the
status quo. The American embassy in Saigon suspects Kaul
was acting under instructions and that his proposal may be de-
signed to promote India as the "great paternalistic unifying
force in Vietnam" with the ultimate aim of bringing the entire
country into the neutralist bloc. This approach, moreover, is
in line with Nehruts belief that the time is propitious for friendly
approaches in the interest of settling outstanding East-West dif-
ferences.
Saigon can be expected to reject Kaurs pro-
posal. President Diem is scheduled to visit New Delhi in Nov-
ember where he may be pressed by Nehru to adopt a more
"moderate" attitude toward North Vietnam. Hanoi, on the other
hand, has recently reinvigorated its campaign for reunification
and would welcome active Indian support. In practice, however,
Hanoi would not agree to free elections.
16 July 57
Current Intelligence bulletin Page 8
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7. SHOWDOWN BETWEEN LEFTISTS AND MODERATES MAY
BE DEVELOPING IN BOLIVIA
Comment on:
The ouster of leftist elements from the
Bolivian government and the ruling Na-
tionalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR),
reported to have occurred last week end,
may lead to a violent contest for power in Bolivia. Top MNR
leaders are reported to have repudiated leftist leaders in the
party and empowered President Siles to rid himself of four
cabinet ministers who represent the Bolivian Workers Central
(COB)--the base of left-wing power headed by Juan Lechin.
Lechin denied the validity of the authority voted for Siles and
vowed to fight back.
The power struggle between moderates and
leftists has been shaping up both within the government and the
MNR since the US-backed economic stabilization program was
initiated last December. The COB threatened to call a general
strike if the program were not modified to meet the demands of
leftist labor leaders, but Siles successfully appealed to COB
affiliates in late June to support stabilization. As a result,
Saes' labor and public support reached a new high, while Lech-
inis prestige apparently suffered a sharp setback.
In the event of a showdown, the hetero-
geneous and decentralized armed forces--the army carabineros,
police, and peasant and worker militia--might be divided in sup-
port between Siles and Lechin. Lechin, however, probably con-
trols the loyalty of the more effective militia units, particularly
the miners militia.
Nuflo Chavez, leftist peasant leader and
vice president who submitted his resignation in late June, might
be expected to exert his influence over the peasant militia in
support of Lechin and the leftist cause.
16 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin
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