CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03166971
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2017
• Case Number: F-2017-01214
• Publication Date: December 17, 1971

Approved for Release: 2017/08/23 C03166971
Top
(b)(3)
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
ljS) isoraL
42
17 December 1971
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The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed with brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgroding and
declassification
110ert
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17 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
INDIA-PAKISTAN: The Pakistanis have not yet indi-
cated whether they will accept a cease-fire in the
West. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Controversy over Lon Nol continues.
(Page 4)
JAPAN: Position on trade liberalization under prep-
aration. (Page 5)
USSR: SS-11 test firing (Page 6)
7-151-3--SEC--RET
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TOP �RCIt-E-T....
1: INDIA-PAKISTAN: Pakistan has not yet indicated
whether it will accept a cease-fire on the western
front, where a unilateral Indian cease-fire is sched-
uled to go into effect at 0930 EST today.
At almost the same time yesterday that Mrs.
Gandhi announced the surrender of Pakistani forces
in the East, President Yahya delivered a defiant
speech to his countrymen. The US Embassy in Islama-
bad believes that the speech could have been de-
signed to lay the groundwork for continuing the war,
but that it could also be read as an effort to muf-
fle Pakistan's defeat and begin the painful process
of preparing the people to accept the loss of the
East and the necessity of terminating the war in the
West.
Although most of the western front was rela-
tively quiet yesterday, heavy fighting continued in
the Sialkot sector around the Pakistani town of
Shakargarh.
the town had been surrounded by Indian troops
but had not yet fallen. Tanks reportedly have been
used extensively in the area, and casualties on both
sides have apparently been heavy.
the Pakistanis mean-
while are massing troops and equipment just south
of Lahore,
the build-up, which includes
one of Pakistan's two armored divisions, might be
in preparation for a large-scale offensive in the
area.
17 Dec 71
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CIn the East, a few isolated Pakistani units,
cut off from radio contact with Dacca, were still
holding out yesterday, but they are expected to
capitulate once they receive word of General Niazi's
surrender. Early this morning the Indians claimed
that some of these elements had given up. In Dacca,
US officials report that no one is yet in effective
control of the city. Many people there reportedly
were being killed and wounded as a result of fight-
ing between Bengalis and scattered West Pakistanis
and collaborationists. General Jacob, India's chief
of staff in the East, said he would impose martial
law as soon as sufficient reinforcements arrive, in
order to prevent further bloodletting.
In New Delhi an Indian spokesman said that the
new Bangla Desh civil administration would take over
today. He added, however, that Indian forces will
remain in the area for an indefinite period to help
restore "normalcy," repair public utilities, and
repatriate refugees.
moreover, that the Indian Army will not withdraw
until it is satisfied that radicals within the Mukti
Bahini guerrilla forces do not pose a threat to the
new regime's stability. To this end, the army has
been instructed to try to isolate these groups.
sisting that Bangla Desh have a
cludes other political elements
Awami League. The Awami League
but Mrs. Gandhi reportedly has come to an agreement
with the multi-party consultative committee that was
set up last fall to broaden the base of the Bangla
Desh movement. According to the agreement, the com-
mittee, which includes some Communists as well as
the Awami League, will form the nucleus of the new
government.
New Delhi is in-
government that in-
in addition to the
has been resisting,
President Yahya's position is still uncertain.
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
2
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Pakistani Army officers
are unhappy with the President because of the rout
of the army in the East. They also apparently blame
him for not allowing them to take the initiative in
the West with heavy armor.
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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CAMBODIA: THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY EARLY RESO�
LUTION OF THE CONTROVERSY OVER LON NOLoS LEADERSHIP,
ALTHOUGH TENSIONS APPEAR TO HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT
IN THE PAST WEEK.
SIRIK MATAK REAFFIRMED HIS CONCERN OVER THE PRIME
MINISTER05 ERRATIC HANDLING OF MILITARY AFFAIRS TO
THE US AMBASSADOR DURING A CONVERSATION ON 15 DECEM�
BER. MATAK ALSO AGAIN STATED THAT WHILE LON NOL HAS
GAINED IN PHYSICAL STRENGTH, HIS MENTAL CONDITION
HAS DETERIORATED. HE STRESSED THAT HE DOUBTS THAT
ANY LONG�TERM COMPROMISE CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH LON
NOL, AND THAT THE PRESENT POLITICAL IMPASSE CAN ONLY
BE RESOLVED BY LON NOLS RETIREMENT.
AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, MATAK GAVE NO INDI�
CATION THAT HE OR OTHERS ARE NOW READY TO PRESS
THEIR DISAGREEMENTS--OR THAT HE HIMSELF INTENDS TO
QUIT THE GOVERNMENT. FROM THE TENOR OF HIS REMARKS,
MATAK CLEARLY FEELS CAUGHT BETWEEN LOYALTY TO THE
PRIME MINISTER AND THE NECESSITY TO CONVINCE LON
NOL THAT IT IS IN THE COUNTRY�S BEST INTERESTS FOR
HIM TO STEP ASIDE. AS A MEASURE OF HIS RESIGNATION
AND FRUSTRATION, MATAK AT ONE POINT STATED THAT HE
IS "PERHAPS THE MOST UNFORTUNATE MAN IN THE REPUB�
LIC."
SOME KHMER KROM COMMANDERS HAVE JOINED IN THE
CHORUS OF CRITICISM OF LON NOL. THESE OFFICERS,
HERETOFORE AMONG LON NOLS STAUNCHEST SUPPORTERS,
REPORTEDLY ARE BITTER OVER HIS DIRECTION OF THE
CHENLA II OPERATION AND THE GOVERNMENTS FAILURE TO
TAKE MORE EFFECTIVE ACTION AGAINST ENEMY FORCES WEST
OF PHNOM PENH.
THUS FAR, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE KHMER
KROM ARE SEARCHING FOR ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP.
THEIR DISENCHANTMENT WITH LON NOL, HOWEVER, ADDS
YET ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY TO AN ALREADY UNCERTAIN PO�
LITICAL SITUATION.
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
-7-iZiP'17W6C:112:
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JAPAN: Tokyo Tokyo is preparing a position on trade
liberalization to be offered if the Group of Ten
meeting in Washington this weekend is successful.
Prime Minister Sato has appointed State Min-
ister Kimura, the director general of the Economic
Planning Agency, to head a task force to draw up
responses to US positions put forward in Honolulu
last weekend. Inter-ministerial agreement regarding
these responses probably will not be reached until
the cabinet meets today. Recommendations, however,
include significant increases in quotas alloted to
US exporters of oranges, citrus juices, and high-
quality beef. Further concessions are probably
under discussion.
According to US Embassy officials in Tokyo,
the concessions are likely to be offered only if
it appears the Group of Ten meeting will be suc-
cessful in solving the world monetary realignment.
Japan reportedly fears that any offer it makes now
would be accepted by the US and that, if no monetary
agreement is reached, further pressure would be ap-
plied when Prime Minister Sato meets with President
Nixon in San Clemente in early January. This fear
is based on events following the US-Japanese meet-
ings in September. At that time the US accepted
certain trade concessions offered by Japan but later
requested further concessions when no monetary solu-
tion was reached.
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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NOTE
C USSR: Last night a modified version of the
SS-11 ICBM--designated the SS-11 Mod 3--was fired
from the Tyuratam missile test center to the Kam-
chatka Peninsula impact area some 3,400 miles away.
The Mod 3, formerly designated the Mod 2B, is one
of two variants of the SS-11 being tested. It
probably carries three re-entry vehicles and is
designed to increase the ability of the missile to
penetrate an ABM defense. This was the fourth
firing of the Mod 3 this month, bringing the total
for the year to 11. There have been 23 successful
launches of the Mod 3 and one failure since test-
ing began in September 1969.
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
SE.FIET
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