CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03166566
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 22, 1955

Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03166566,
TOP SECRET
22 January 1955
Copy No. 79
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
7)CUMENT NO.
CHANCE IN CLASS X
I . DECLASSIFIED
C CHANGED TO: TS S C
XT REVIEW DATE: 2-0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: I win so REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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�181.11
SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Japanese foreign minister probably will be replaced after
election (page 3).
2. Chinese Nationalist attempt to evacuate Tachens seen costly
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Israel's reaction to proposed Turkish-Iraqi pact
(page 4).
LATIN AMERICA
4. Comment on abortive coup in Guatemala (page 4).
5. Panamanian situation may explode "at any moment" (page 5).
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FAR EAST
1. Japanese foreign minister probably will be replaced after
election:
in late February.
Mamoru Shigemitsu will not be reap-
pointed as Japan's foreign minister if,
as is generally expected, the Democrats
retain power after the general elections
upper house member Arata Sugihara will be
foreign minister for an interim period, and he will be succeeded
by former ambassador to London Shunichi Matsumoto,
Comment: Hatoyama's recent statements
advocating closer relations with the Orbit may have been inspired
by Sugihara, who is currently acting as the prime minister's per-
sonal foreign adviser. Sugihara
favors a complete change from Yoshida's foreign policy and be-
lieves a treaty should be negotiated with the USSR and Communist
China.
Matsumoto is a career diplomat who has
just returned from London to run in the election, As foreign minis-
ter he could be expected to try to bring Japan's policies on Far
Eastern matters more in line with British views,
2. Chinese Nationalist attempt to evacuate Tachens seen costly:
The Chinese Nationalists might be able
to effect withdrawal of their garrison in
the Tachens without American assistance,
but only at the risk of major losses to
their navy and air force, according to Major General Chase, the
senior American military adviser on Formosa. General Chase
believes that such a risk is not justified, and that it would be
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'41.11r �qamof
better for the Nationalists to lose the Tachens and their garrison
there than to cripple the naval and air arms.
Comment: Against Nationalist opposi-
tion alone, the Communists would almost certainly disrupt the
withdrawal by air bombardment, naval action and artillery fire
by day and by night.
American naval and naval air assistance
in a planned withdrawal of the Nationalist garrison would reduce
the likelihood, but would not eliminate the possibility, of aggres-
sive Communist intervention in the operation.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Israel b reaction to proposed Turkish-Iraqi pact:
Reports from Israel reveal that the pro-
posed Turkish-Iraqi agreement and the
possible undermining of the Arab League
have created a new dilemma for Tel Aviv.
Israel recognizes the Arab League's un=
yielding position as a major block to peace settlements and would
accordingly welcome the league's collapse over the present issue.
However, Israel is also strongly opposed to any Middle East
defense plans which would bring arms to any Arab state. This
overriding consideration will probably induce it to oppose a Turkish
Iraqi agreement or any defense arrangements which include the Arab
states, even though Turkish participation represents a specific guar-
antee against Arab aggression.
LATIN AMERICA
4. Comment on abortive coup in Guatemala:
The attempted revolt in Guatemala on
20 January is symptomatic of the gen-
eral unrest, extending to the army,
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*se
which has been apparent since last
November. The rebels apparently in-
cluded military personnel of at least
one of the capital city's two garrisons.
There is no evidence to support government allegations that the
attempt was Communist-directed.
Ambassador Armour reports that a
person who saw President Castillo Armas late on 20 January
found him "confident but angry" and determined to crack down
hard on his opponents. The long list of individuals, including
Colonel Monzon, whom Castillo reportedly intends to arrest,
suggests that the president may be striking out blindly against
all potential opposition leaders. The arrest of Monzon, proba-
bly the strongest potential army leader and Castillo 's partner in
the post-Arbenz juntas last summer, could produce a serious
reaction in the army.
the
Castillo administration has turned to ruthless measures reminis-
cent of its dictatorial predecessors. This could further alienate
the army and populace from the government.
5. Panamanian situation may explode "at any moment":
Friction among the three top officers of
the National Guard and Alejandro Remon,
brother of the late president and presently
the minister of government and justice,
may cause the situation in Panama to reach
nn a. any momen "where shooting would break out between
these men and their supporters. Contrary to an order from Remon,
the commandant of the guard has failed to discharge one of his sub-
ordinates.
Comment: Since the murder of President
Remon on 2 January there have been signs of rivalry between the
commandant of the National Guard and his deputy, and during the
ouster of former president Guizado, it appeared that Deputy Com-
mandant Saturnino Flores was emerging as the "strong man" of
Panama.
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The unclosed case against Guiza.do, who
is accused of complicity in the Remon murder, is another factor
adversely affecting the stability of the government of President
Arias, and may well be a serious point of conflict among govern-
ment leaders. General Harrison, the American commander in
the Canal Zone, pointed out on 19 January that the government
is faced with proving Guizadoes guilt or being discredited for
precipitate and "obviously prejudiced action."
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