CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03166565
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 12, 1955

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12
February
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55
Copy No. 8
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 0";
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Warsaw presses for relations with Tokyo (page 3).
2. Finnish tanker to load kerosene in Black Sea for China (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Communist attack on Quemoy seen following occupation of Tachens
group (page 4).
4. Romulo sees Communist aim as winning Formosa by political
means (page 5)
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. French seek to retain control of Cambodian army (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
6. Pakistani government will ignore challenge to its legality (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Chances seen lessening for unqualified French council approval of
Paris accords (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Highly placed Panamanians rumored seeking establishment of gov-
ernment junta (page 7).
* * * *
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"Nial
GENERAL
1. Warsaw presses for relations with Tokyo:
Comment: This is a follow-up to Polish
advances made in December. It coincided with the latest Soviet
overture in Tokyo for negotiations on the resumption of relations.
Moscow has probably been utilizing the Poles, who have no unre-
solved disputes with Japan, to set a precedent for diplomatic ex-
change without first negotiating a peace treaty.
The Japanese Foreign Ministry has in-
dicated it will seek to defer discussing the subject with Poland
until negotiations with Moscow are concluded, and until after the
Japanese elections.
2. Finnish tanker to load kerosene in Black Sea for China:
12 Feb 55
The captain of the Finnish tanker Aruba,
which has just entered the Black Sea,
stated at Ankara that the vessel was go-
ing to Communist China. A report of
late January from Helsinki stated that
the vessel had been chartered to load
15,000 tons of kerosene at Constanta in
the Black Sea for delivery to Whampoa
in South China,
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Comment: This is the first attempt by
a non-Orbit tanker to deliver petroleum products to China since
the unsuccessful effort of the Finnish tanker Wiima in early 1953.
The Chinese have had difficulty recently
in fulfilling growing oil requirements in South China and North
Vietnam, and a tanker delivery to Whampoa would reduce the vol-
ume to be supplied by rail from the north. (Concurred in by ORR)
FAR EAST
3. Communist attack on Quemoy seen following occupation of Tachens
group:
American military advisers in Taipei be-
lieve the Chinese Communists will next
attempt to take Quemoy after they have
occupied the islands in the Tachens area
now ng evacua y Nationalist forces.
L The belief that Quemoy is next on the
Communist schedule is based on several facts: the Communists
have recently improved the road net and constructed new artillery
positions in the Quemoy area, have apparently increased supply
and troop movements on the mainland near Quemoy, and have inten-
sified reconnaissance of Nationalist positions there.
Comment: Current Communist activity
In the Quemoy area does not necessarily indicate an early attempt
to take the island. As Quemoy is garrisoned by 50,000 Nationalist
troops, an invasion would be a costly venture.
Moreover, the Communists are almost
certainly in doubt as to American intentions with respect to defend-
ing Quemoy. They are therefore expected to undertake probing ac-
tions to determine the extent of the defense before attempting an
invasion.
12 Feb 55
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4. Romulo sees Communist aim as winning Formosa by political
means:
Comment: Peiping% "liberation cam-
paign appears ta he. motiva,ted by its conviction that it can force
the US to choose between modifying its commitments to Nationalist
China or risking political isolation on this issue.
It is doubtful that Peiping expects to
annex Formosa by diplomatic means, Nit the Chinese Communists
apparently do expect subversion to be a factor. Peiping has pub-
licly and privately stated that the island will fall through a com-
bination of military action and internal uprisings.
The Chinese Communists have repeatedly
declared that they will not accept the "neutralization" of Formosa.
The Communists are expected to exploit the hope of settlement
in order to induce the United States not to defend offshore island
groups still held by the Nationalists, but there is little or no pros-
pect that Peiping will alter its determination eventually to "liber-
ate" Formosa.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. French seek to retain control of Cambodian army:
12 Feb 55
Commissioner General Ely told the
American minister in Saigon on 9 Febru-
ary that France desires the Cambodian
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army to be trained by a joint French-American training mission,
with the French having "primary responsibility." Ely said France
would disapprove of any American effort to have Cambodia ask
the United States to take over training responsibilities.
Comment: The plan advanced by Ely is
probably intended as a compromise measure to prevent a bi-
lateral US-Cambodian military training agreement providing for
exclusively American aid. The Cambodian prime minister indi-
cated to the American minister in Phnom Penh on 10 February
that his government had been under intense pressure from the
French high commissioner in Cambodia to delegate entire re-
sponsibility for training the Cambodian army to the French mili-
tary mission.
SOUTH ASIA
6. Pakistani government Will ignore challenge to its legality:
The Pakistani government will pay no
attention to a provincial court's ruling
Of 9 February that the governor gen-
eral b action on 24 October seizing
overt control and dismissing the Pakistani Constituent Assembly
was illegal, according to statements made publicly
by Interior Minister Mirza on 10 February. Mirza added that
if the federal court upheld the 9 February decision, it too would
be ignored.
Mirza's press statements said the gov-
ernment is determined to maintain law and order and will take
whatever steps are necessary to achieve this object. In no cir-
cumstances will any form of disruption be tolerated from any quar-
ter.
Comment: This indicates that the govern-
ment will probably remain in power regardless of the current chal-
lenge to its legality. Its members are obviously prepared to rule
unconstitutionally if necessary. There is no individual or group
in Pakistan currently strong enough to overthrow them.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Chances seen lessening for unqualified French council approval
of Paris accords:
The French Council of the Republic is
sure to ratify the Paris agreements,
but ratification without amendments is
no longer certain, in the opinion of
wnu-rr�onsibie for reporting the agreements
out of the council's Foreign Affairs Committee.
According to the American embassy in
Paris, Debra believes there is a greater likelihood of amend-
ments now, largely because well-organized pressure against ap-
proval of German rearmament has begun to influence the senators.
Debra believes council debate on the ac-
cords may open on 8 March, "if all goes well." The Foreign Af-
fairs Committee has completed its study, but is waiting to sound
out the new government on East-West problems before deciding
whether to recommend approval without amendments.
Comment: Addition of an amendment by
the council would require return of the accords to the National
Assembly, where reapproval is now uncertain.
Debra is believed favorable to the agree-
ments, but his report to the committee raised several objections
which will require an extensive exchange of views with the new
government before the ratification bill reaches the council floor.
The position of the new premier will probably be the determining
factor in the council's decision.
LATIN AMERICA
8. Highly placed Panamanians rumored seeking establishment of
government junta:
12 Feb 55
Rumors persist that certain highly placed
Panamanians fear further revelations in
the Renion murder case and are seeking
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the establishment of a government junta to prevent such a devel-
opment, the American embassy in Panama reports.
Comment: The political situation in
Panama is highly unstab1e7 painted the picture
as "a circle of rascals and thieves, each holding a gun at the
other's head and fearful that if one pulls a trigger they will all
go off."
There have been some indications that
Bolivar. Vallarino, commandant of the National Guard, may have
been involved in the murder of President Remon.
luben Miro, confessed
assassin of President Remon, had repudiated his confession and
declared he was forced into it by Vallarino.
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