CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/08/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03163351
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: August 20, 1959

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3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
20 August 1959
Copy No. C 63
CENTRAL
TELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.yr
NO CHANGE IN CLA S. k
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CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS Sol A
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20 AUGUST 1959
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR�Modest harvest prospects
may heighten internal criticism of
agricultural program.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Laos�Communists reportedly dis-
cuss plans for violence against US
personnel.
Singapore--Pro-Communists pose
threat to moderates' position in rul-
ing party.
Rhee government to aid Koreans in
Japan planning demonstration on re-
patriation issue.
Ethiopia�Soviet survey team appar-
ently to arrive in early October.
Saud may visit Nasir in September.
SECRET
III. THE WEST
Moscow warns De Gaulle against
close cooperation with Bonn.
Paraguay�Exiles in Argentina re-
ported planning early raid on Para-
guayan territory.
Haitian President fears further land-
ings; may request resumption of US
patrols.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
20 August 1959
DAILY BRIEF
13
51
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR: Recent information on weather and acreage devoted
to gram indicates a possibility that the Soviet grain harvest this
year will not only be well below the record 1958 crop but may
V1,,also be somewhat less than the mediocre 1957 harvest. The
DI modest harvest prospects are likely to heighten criticism of or-
ganizational features and shortcomings in the agriculture pro-
gram. (Page 1) (Chart)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Laos: The Laotian Army,
surprised
a group of Communists last week on the outskirts of Vientiane
discussing plans for terrorist action against American personnel
and the US Embassy in Vientiane. The group escaped capture.
This report is considered probably true both as regards the raid
and the subject under Communist discussion.
(Page 2)
Watch Committee conclusion-- Laos Lao Government forces
continue their efforts against dissident elements in the northern
part of Sam Neua and the eastern portion of PLoag Saly provinces.
Dissident activity with probable North Vietnamese support and
guidance continues. The North Vietnamese: by providing guid-
ance and logistic assistance to the dissident elements in Laos,
have the capability of intensifying operations through these ele-
ments to the extent of threatening seriously the internal security
of the country.
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1\1
Singapore: IThe growing activity and influence of pro-
Communists in the ruling People's Action party of Singapore
are posing a threat to continued control of the party by its
"moderate" wing. Extreme leftist leader Lim Chin Siong has
reportedly begun an "all-out operation" to organize the labor
movement of Singapore as a base of power for taking over the
arty and government. Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew is con-
dering moves to curb the pro-Communist&_hut annar hes-
itant because of their wide following
(Page 4)
South Korea - Japan: The Rhee government has ordered
its ambassador in Tokyo to give money and advice to pro - South
Koreans planning a demonstration against the repatriation of
Korean residents in Japan to North Korea. The demonstration
is to be staged on the arrival on 23 August of Marcel Junod,
vice president of the International Committee of the Red Cross,
and is designed to impress him with the difficulty he will en-
counter in the repatriation procedures and "how Japan has mis-
represented the situation." Seoul also hopes to counter the ex-
pected demonstration by pro-Communist Koreans welcoming
Junod. (Page 5)
Ethiopia: A Soviet advance technical survey team now is
apparently expected to arrive in early October to investigate
the economic and technical needs of Ethiopia.
discussions appar-
ently were held in Moscow during Haile Selassie's visit there last
month on Soviet participation in establishing a pharmaceutical
plant in Ethiopia and assisting in an agricultural development
program. These two projects presumably would account for about
half of the $100.000.000 soviet credit recently extended to Addis
Ababa. Page 6)
Watch Committee conclusion--Middle East: Situations sus-
ceptible of direct exploitation by Sib-Soviet bloc action which
would jeopardize US interests exist in the Middle East, particu-
larly in Iraq and Iran. The initiation of significant hostilities is
I unlikely in this area in the immediate future.
20 Aug 59
DAILY BRIEF
11
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Saudi Arabia - UAR: King Saud reportedly will visit
President Nasir in early September while en route home from
medical treatment in Germany. It is doubtful that such a visit
would signify any change in the King's fear and hatred of Nasir,
r;\ but would indicate that Saud feels he needs to refurbish his
ttv prestige and outshine his prime minister, Crown Prince Faysal,
by a public show of friendship with the UAR leader.
Faysal, in trying to carry out his fiscal reforms, is still re-
fusing to pay Saud's personal debts.
III. THE WEST
*France-USSR: viet ambassador Vinogradov, in his visit
to President de Gaulle on 16 August, delivered an aide-memoire
couched in "relatively stiff" terms and warning that continued
close French cooperation with West Germany might result in
France's isolation on the international scene,
. The note contained nothing re-
garding a possible exchange of visits between De Gaulle and Khru-
shchev, though the subject may have
been broached orally. According to press reports, the document
also warned of the consequences of French determination to build
a nuclear bomb, and was accompanied by a personal letter from
Khrushchev in which he expressed his respect for the French Pres-
i ricinn
Paraguay: President Stroessner has been warne a ex-
iles living in Argentina plan to launch a raid into Paraguayan
territory on 23 August. Stroessner, whose government has been
\Linder increasing attack as the last remaining dictatorship in
.0 South America, is confident he can repel the raid but is reported
to fear assassination attempts. The Argentine Government has
cooperated with Stroessner in impeding past raids from Argen-
tine territory. (Page 7)
Haiti: Opposition elements in Port-au-Prince are consid-
o ering committing acts of terrorism to whip up enthusiasm for
ti the small invasion group which landed on Haiti's southern
20 Aug 59
DAILY BRIEF
111
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peninsula on 13 August, even though the identity of the invaders
has not yet been clarified. President Duvalier fears further land-
ings, and has told US Ambassador Drew that he plans to request
the US to resume informal air and sea patrols along Haiti's coast.
ataiti may also request assistance from the Inter-American
Peace Committee under the new powers granted that committee
during the foreign ministers' meeting in Santiago:1
(Page 8)
20 Aug 59
DAILY BRIEF iv
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USSR GRAIN PRODUCTION 1950-1958 (MILLION METRIC TONS)
GRAIN ACREAGE 1950-1958 (MILLIONS OF ACRES)
51
`0H13 1
52
53
54
SS
56 57 56
20 AUGUST 1959
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UiVFILJi'4 I IAL
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Poor Grain Crop Expected in the USSR
According to present prospects,the USSR's 1959 grain
crop may fall short of the 105,000,000 tons harvested in 1957--
a mediocre'year--and will be well below last year's record
harvest of about 130,000,000 metric tons.
Except in the eastern portion of the New Lands, weather
this year has not been favorable for grain yields. Soil mois-
ture reserves were limited at the beginning of the growing
season, and rainfall during the critical months of May, June,
and July was less than half of normal.
Late crops such as sugar beets, sunflowers, and potatoes,
as well as the production of livestock feed, probably have also
been adversely affected. However, the weather during the re-
mainder of the season may still alter the late crop picture con-
siderably.
Because Soviet agricultural production has been much higher
since the New Lands were first brought into use in 1954 and 1955,
the poor prospects will not create a domestic food shortage.
Soviet efforts to catch up with the US in production of livestock
products will be affected, however, by the smaller feed supply,
and less grain will be available for export. The poor prospects
for this year, the first of the Seven-Year Plan, will probably
heighten criticism of shortcomings in agriculture and be used
by Ehrushchev to justify speeding up his agricultural reforms.
CONFIDENTIAL
20 Aug 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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IL ASIA-AFRICA
Laos
The Laotian Army,
surprised a group
of 12 Communist cadres one evening last week discussing plans
for terrorist activity against Americans and the American Embas-
sy in Vientiane. The group, which included two Vietnamese Com-
munist agents from northeastern Thailand, escaped. Lending
weight to this report is the Laotian Army's discovery of an
arms cache in Vientiane on 13 August at a residence occupied
by members of a Communist-front organization.
'ff'.he American army attach�n Vientiane states that frag%,
mentary information from Laotian army intelligence indicates
recently increased partisan activity in northern Laos. Laotian
military officials state that the guerrillas have broken down
into smaller groups and o,re spreading out over larger areas
in Sam Neua:d
In an apparent effort to build up psychological tension over
Laos, a Chinese Communist diplomat told a Western journalist
on 13 August that Peiping is preparing to test American strength
in Laos and that a fight between "the US and Chinese Communists
on the Indochina peninsula" will be unavoidable if the Ameri-
cans do not withdraw. This source has sometimes passed mis-
leading but tension-building information to the West. For ex-
ample, he warned repeatedly in late 1958 and early 1959 that
the offshore islands would be "liberated" last spring. Radio
Peiping has, however, warned repeatedly that military inter-
vention in Laos by the US-or a SEATO power would be regarded
as a threat to the security of China.
dile USSR is maintaining its position that the Laotian ICC
should be reconvened in order to deal with the crisis. The So-
viet ambassador to the UK reacted negatively to the BritisIg
20 Aug 59
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--
proposal that an observer be appointed by UN Secretrary
General Hammarskjold on the recommendation of the UK
and the USSR as cochairmen. He took the position that
Vientiane's refusal to accept the ICC is contrary to the
Geneva agreements, but "grudgingly" agreed to pass the
British proposal to Moscow. If Moscow refuses to approve
the proposal, as seems likely, Hammarskjold will probably
refuse to take any action without a mandate from the UN.]
Moscow charged in a radiobroadcast on 18 August that
Admiral Burke's statement regarding the possibility of US
Navy involvement in the Laotian conflict demonstrates "once
again" that the US "is prepared to embark on a military ad-
venture" in Southeast Asia to retain Laos "within the sphere
of its military blocs."
20 Aug 59
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Increasing Pro-Communist Activity in Singapore
ffhere are signs that key pro-Communists in the ruling
People's Action party (PAP) of Singapore, who were released
from jail in June, have not kept their pledges to submit to the
direction of the PAP executive committee and are, instead,
actively undermining the party's "moderate" leadership. The
growing influence of the extremists in labor and student circles
appears to make a fight for control of the party inevitable.
One recent report states that the pro-Communists are holding
meetings to map their strategy against Prime Minister Lee
Kuan Yew:)
e primary threat to Prime Minister Lee's leadership comes
from Lim Chin Siong, who is the principal hero of left-wing Chinese
youth. He is said to have begun an "all-out operation" to organ-
ize the labor movement as a base of power for taking over the
party and the government, Lee is apparently uncertain how to
curb Lim's power without making a martyr of him. During
recent weeks he has reportedly considered several courses of
action, including rearresting Lim, or sending him to Europe
to study trade-union act1v1t1es-4
-*spite the risks involved, Lee's prospects for curbing
extremist activities are probably better now--soon after
electoral victory--than they will be in the future when it
becomes obvious that his government will be unable to solve
many of Singapore's pressing political and economic problems]
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Seoul Supports Protest Demonstration by Pro - South Korean
Group in Japan
Seoul has ordered its ambassador in Tokyo to assist
Mindan, the union of anti-Communist Koreans in Japan, in
staging a demonstration protesting the repatriation of Koreans
from Japan to North Korea. The demonstration is to take
place on the arrival on 23 August of Marcel Junod, vice
president of the International Committee of the Red Cross,
to impress him with the difficulty he will encounter in the
repatriation procedures and "how Japan has misrepresented
the situation." The ambassador was instructed to make
$2,800 available to support the demonstration, which Seoul
hopes will counter the expected welcome demonstration by
pro-Communist Koreans. He was also instructed to prevent
any harm to Junod.
Over 600,000 Koreans reside in Japan; about 30,000 belong
to Mindan and approximately 130,000 are members of Chosen
Soren, a pro-Communist organization. (The Japanese police
reportedly have been alerted to the demonstrations and plan
to provide for Junod's safety. However, should violence break
out between the two Korean groups, the police allegedly will
not interfere except to protect the general public. At the same
time, Japanese authorities have expressed concern over informa-
tion that South Korean agents may attempt to disable the repatria-
tion ships in Niigata harbor. They fear that any incidents in-
volving the ships, which will be under the Soviet flag, would
lead to complications]
The proposed demonstration is unlikely to influence ICRC's
decision to participate in the repatriation. (ICRC officials
have confidentially expressed their annoyance with Seoul's
obstructionist tactics and they probably would regard the
demonstration in the same lightj
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Soviet Specialists to Visit Ethiopia
The Ethiopian Government will soon process "120 tourist
visas" for members of a technical survey team from the USSR,
The Soviet
specialists, who are expected in Addis Ababa about 1 October,
reportedly will conduct a three-month survey to determine spe-
cific uses for the $100,000,000 economic credit recently ex-
tended to Ethiopia.
During the Emperor's visit to Moscow in July, talks were
held on Soviet participation in a $44,000,000 project designed
to train 15,000 Ethiopian war veterans in agriculture and to pro-
vide equipment for their farms.
the USSR may establish a $4,000,000 pharmaceutical
plant in Addis Ababa. The remainder of the Soviet credit prob-
ably will be used to finance industrial ,enterprises,E.? produce
paper and cement, among other things)
The arrival of Soviet technicians in Addis Ababa can be ex-
pected to intensify unrest among a number of Ethiopian officials
who in mid-July were reported to be plotting to depose the Em-
peror because of his apparent intention to develop close ties with
Moscow. According to leaders of this group, who profess friend.
ship for the US, the position of pro-Western elements in Ethiopia
is deteriorating rapidly and unless the plotters act soon, other
dissatisfied elements within the military forces may take matters
into their own hands]
In addition to the Soviet credit, a Czech line of credit--re-
portedly amounting to $20,000,000--was extended to .Ethiopia
this summer during Haile Selassie's tour of Europe.. This id pre--
skaznably will be used to supplement Moscow's aid to fuliill Ethio-
pia's Five-Year Plan:3 In keeping with the bloc's increased inter-
est in Ethiopia, a 're-pecial delegation" from Poland will travel
to Addis Ababa in mid-September, presumably to investigate the
possibility of increased trade.
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Nor' III. THE WEST
Paraguayan Exiles Plan New Raid Against Stroessner Government
Paraguayan exiles living in Argentina reportedly plan a raid
against the Stroessner government on 23 August. They probably
hope to highlight Paraguay's status as the last remaining dictator-
ship in South America at a time when the Latin American press
will be reviewing the antidictatorship resolutions adopted by the
Santiago meeting of foreign ministers.
Stroessner has been warned of the scheduled attempt and
reportedly has information that the exiles are poorly armed. He
is confident he can repel the invaders, who probably are few in
number, but is concerned over a possible assassination attempt.
Demonstrations may occur if the controversial antigovernment
priest, Father Talaveral, returns to Asuncion this week end as
he reportedly plans.
The Stroessner regime has been extremely sensitive to the
growing anticlictatorship pressure both within Paraguay and in
Latin America generally, but has been inept in its attempts to
pave the way for a change in Paraguay's tradition of one-party
rule. Government reform moves earlier this year brought a
crisis in the ruling Colorado party and an increase in plotting
among extremist elements who saw reform as a threat to their
plans for outright revolt. In May, Stroessner dissolved Congress
and reimposed a state of siege after a one-month experiment in
governing without it.
Just before the Santiago meeting, Stroessner signed decrees
scheduling the election of a new congress on 14 February 1960
and providing for the participation of established, non-Communist
opposition parties. Simultaneously the Colorado party announced
a convention on 19 September to elect replacements for party of-
ficials who resigned during the May crisis.
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Developments in Haiti
The opposition to Haitian President Francois Duvalier
is considering acts of terrorism in Port-au-Prince in sup-
port of the small force of unidentified invaders who landed
on the southern peninsula on 13 August. Port-au-Prince
has reacted calmly to news of the invasion, and there have
been no bombing incidents there since 25 July, possibly be-
cause of strong government action to suppress a campaign
of terrorism which began in mid-June.
Haitian military forces have apparently established the
general location of the invasion group as being a few miles
south of the alleged landing site, and troops have been in-
structed to "try to make contact again, come what may."
There has been no previous indication that Haitian troops
had encountered the invaders and no reports of skirmishes.
President Duvalier, who anticipates further landings, in-
formed US Ambassador Drew on 18 August that he plans to re-
quest the United States to resume informal air and sea patrols
along the Haitian coast. Haiti- will almost certainly refuse or
ignore the offer of Dominican President Hector Trujillo to
give "full cooperation" in repelling the invasion.
CHaiti may also request assistance from the Inter-American
Peace Committee (IAPC) under powers granted the committee
during the foreign ministers' meeting in Santiago. Foreign
Minister Mars may ask an IAPC delegation to go to Haiti to
investigate the situation rather than make a formal appeal to
the Council of the Organization of American States, as originally
contemplated.)
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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