CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/01/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161979
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: January 18, 1957

Approved for Release: 2019/12/04 C03161979
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
18 January 1957
Copy No. 131
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
i ! DEC!.2-.SSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE-
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
SECRET
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CONTENTS
1. EGYPTIANS CLAIM USSR HAS OFFERED HALF-BILLION-
DOLLAR CREDIT (page 3).
2. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
(page 4).
3. EGYPT PREPARING ARMS SHIPMENTS TO YEMEN
(page 5).
4. SHEPILOV REPORTEDLY URGES EARLY ASIAN-AFRICAN
CONFERENCE (page 6)e
5e LSHIBASHI BLOC
FORCES IN 1957
OF JAPANESE GROUND
(page 7).
6. RUMANIA MAY NOT PERMIT US OBSERVERS AT FEBRUARY
ELECTIONS (page 8).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee (page 9).
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. EGYPTIANS CLAIM USSR HAS OFFERED HALF-
BILLION-DOLLAR CREDIT
Soviet ambassador ICSelev has offered
Cairo a credit to the extent of 200,000,000
Egyptian pounds ($574.000.000) for EavDt's
new five-year plan,
Kiselev
reportedly stated that the aid would be in the form of "Soviet-
built factories," and asked Sabri for details of the five-year
plan so that Soviet assistance could be fully integrated with it.
Comment
While it would be in Egypt's interest to ex-
aggerate what may have been a general and
unspecific Soviet proposal, Moscow is likely to increase its
military aid to Egypt, which until now has been relatively small.
Nasr's statements in an interview on 16 Jan-
uary lauding Soviet assistance at the time of Suez and deprecat-
ing the American refusal to release frozen Egyptian funds, his
"Egyptianization" of Western firms, and increasingly sharp at-
tacks on the US proposals for the Middle East by the Cairo-con-
trolled press suggest that Nasr believes he is backed by com-
mitments from the Soviet Union for economic assistance.
In the face of mounting internal dissatisfac-
tion and economic problems, Nasr may well visualize Soviet
economic assistance as the only means by which he can secure
his position, rationalizing away the dangers such assistance
would spell for his eventual position and for the future of Egypt.
Nasr has indicated he has few fears at present regarding Soviet
international policy, but believes that the problem of internal
Communist subversion is serious.
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
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2. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
Comment on:
President Sukarno's ability to carry out
his plan to set up an "advisory council"
to govern Indonesia under his direction
depends on the support or resistance ac-
corded him by the army and the major
political parties.
The political parties will probably oppose
the plan as unconstitutional, while bar-
gaining with Sukarno over their role in the new organization,
but most of the major ones probably will ultimately support
him. Army chief of staff Nasution, who appears to control
major army factions, reportedly has "reached agreement"
with Sukarno on "solving the country's problems.
The outlying provinces, which have long
opposed centralized control, might resist strongly such an
assertion of one-man rule in Djakarta, possibly even to the
point of withdrawal from the republic.
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4
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3, EGYPT PREPARING ARMS SHIPMENTS TO YEMEN
The Egyptian commander in chief,
General Amer, has given instructions
for the delivery of arms assistance to
Yemen in the near future,
Tne arms snip-
ment will include rifles, machine guns, bazookas and mines,
and the Egyptians have requested that "one or two" Yemeni
officers be sent to be trained in the use of the mines and
bazookas.
Egypt has agreed to deliver the arms to
Jidda from where Yemen would transport the material by ship
or by air.
Comment A statement that 20 aircraft flights would
be needed to deliver the arms suggests
that the quantity amounts to no more than 50 or 60 tons.
According to the Egyptian press, several
thousand volunteers to aid Yemen have been registered in
Egypt. While Egyptian officers are training the Yemeni army
under the Egyptian-Yemeni-Saudi military assistance pact of
April 1956, no Egyptian volunteers are believed to have de-
parted for Yemen.
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
TOP SFTRFT
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.'410
4. SHEPILOV REPORTEDLY URGES EARLY ASIAN-
AFRICAN CONFERENCE
Soviet foreign minister Shepilov on
9 January reportedly expressed to
Indonesian ambassador Maramis in
Moscow the "strong desire of the So-
viet government" that Indonesia promote the calling of
an Asian-African conference "at the earliest possible
date!' the ambassador
in his report expressed the opinion that Moscow wanted
to use the conference to promote its Middle East program
and to attack the Eisenhower proposals.
Although Maramis strongly recom-
mended against promoting such a conference and desk of-
ficials in the Indonesian Foreign Ministry backed the am-
bassador's views, prime
Minister Ali may act on the Soviet suggestion in order to
divert attention from the present government crisis. The
source added that the Soviet request was to be discussed
this week by the Indonesian cabinet.
� Comment Such a proposal may have resulted from
Soviet discussions with Chou En-lai when
he was in Moscow from 7 to 11 January. Most nations of
the Asian-African bloc might agree without much enthusiasm
to attend such a conference at this time, but India and Paki-
stan would oppose
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
CONFIDENTIAL
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5. ISHIBASHI BLOCKS INCREASE OF JAPANESE
GROUND FORCES IN 1957
Prime Minister Ishibashi told Ambassa-
dor Allison on 16 January that it was
impossible for political reasons to pro-
vide funds for any increase in Japan's
ground forces during 1957. Ishibashi stated, however, that
personnel increases requested for the air and naval forces
would be granted and that the budget for 1958 would provide
for a 10,000-man increase in the ground forces.
Ishibashi noted that increases in other
categories of military expenditures and the utilization of
funds carried over from fiscal 1956 would actually make
defense spending greater in 1957 than in the previous year.
Comment The prospect of a general election this
year probably is an important factor in
determining Ishibashi's position. This possibility places
defense expenditures at a disadvantage in competing with
such politically attractive fiscal policies as tax reduction
and welfare measures.
Japan's defense build-up has received in-
creasing criticism from elements in the government party
and the opposition for alleged overemphasis on ground forces.
Ishibashi himself has publicly stated he favors "quality over
quantity" and that he would place greater emphasis on modern-
izing the defense forces.
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Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
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6. RUMANIA MAY NOT PERMIT US OBSERVERS AT
FEBRUARY ELECTIONS
Rumanian deputy foreign minister
Lazareanu has told the American am-
bassador in Bucharest he person-
ally doubts that his government will
now permit the visit of Americans invited to observe the
Rumanian national elections scheduled for 3 February.
Lazareanu claimed that American government-sponsored
attacks on Rumania through the Voice of America and
� Radio Free Europe and public statements by members of
the US government had caused the deterioration of the rela-
tively friendly US-Rumanian relations of last fall. He
charged that Americans had endangered Rumanian internal
security not only by inciting Hungarians to revolt on the
Rumanian-Hungarian borders but also by making state-
ments calculated to incite Rumanians to revolt against their
own government.
Comment The Rumanian Foreign Ministry invitation
of 5 October, issued just before talks be-
gan with the US concerning long-standing problems between
the two countries, was in reciprocation for invitations to ob-
serve the American elections. Lazareanu's statements are
symptomatic of the generally stiffened line toward the US in
all of the Satellites.
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
'CONFIDENT/7th
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ANNEX
Watch Report 337, 17 January 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against US forces abroad, US allies or areas periph-
eral to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East is
improbable in the immediate future.
18 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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