CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/01/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161973
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: January 5, 1957

..,Approved for Release: 2019/12/04 C03161973
A WA" L.7.ILLI'l
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
5 January 1957
/
Copy No.
131
DOCUMENT NO. mill
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 74
I ! DECLASE;IRED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS Si
NEXT REVIEW DATE oa
/U
D\ IV04/1.)1111EVIEWER: _
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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kill
111,
CONTENTS
1. SHEPILOV COMMENTS ON "IMPENDING AMERICAN
POLICY' IN MIDDLE EAST (page 3).
2. NASR REPORTED CONSIDERING "DE FACTO" PEACE
WITH ISRAEL ) (page 4).
3. ISRAEL TO COUNTER EGYPTIAN COMPENSATION
DEMAND WITH OWN CLAIMS
(page 5).
4. ARAB AID FOR JORDAN UNCERTAIN
(page 6).
5. INCREASING VIOLENCE ON YEMEN-ADEN BORDER LIKELY
(page 7).
6. AFGHANISTAN MAY HOPE FOR SECURITY GUARANTEE
UNDER PROPOSED NEW US MIDDLE EAST POLICY
(page 8).
7. JAPANESE PREMIER MAY CALL EARLY GENERAL ELECTION
(page 9).
8. SUMATRAN PROGOVERNMENT COMMANDER RECRUITING
LEFTIST LABORERS FOR MILITARY SERVICE (page 10).
9. PEIPING MAY SLOW INDUSTRIALIZATION
(page 11).
10. BURMA TO REDUCE RICE EXPORTS TO SINO-SOVIET BLOC
(page 12).
ANNEX -- Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelli-
gence Advisory Committee
5 Jan 57
(page 13).
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. SHEPILOV COMMENTS ON "IMPENDING AMERICAN
POLICY?' IN MIDDLE EAST
Soviet foreign minister Sheoilov
he considers the "impending new
American policy" a greater danger to
the Arabs than the attack on Egypt as it
e, deceiving and backed by money and a more power-
ful force;' He
said the USSR would certainly react but only after the Arab
governments, particularly Egypt, express their own views.
Shepilov added that Moscow saw no ob-
jection to Arab countries accepting economic aid "free from
political strings" although he doubted the "intentions of the
donor:'
Comment The USSR appears concerned that new
American moves might be favorably re-
ceived by Middle Eastern states. Shepilov may well have
introduced the idea that the USSR would provide further aid
to Egypt and the Middle East to encourage the idea, already
expressed in Soviet propaganda, that with Soviet aid the Arabs
are capable of maintaining their independence.
5 Jan 57
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2. NASR REPORTED CONSIDERING "DE FACTO" PEACE
WITH ISRAEL
President Nasr of Egypt is seriously
considering a plan for a "de facto" peace
with Israel,
The plan envisages a buffer
zone around Israel manned by an international force. Nasr
reportedly feels this would effectively halt border incidents
and contribute to a period of quiet, after which a "real peace"
might be discussed. The land for the buffer zone, according
to the plan, would be taken from both Israel and the Arab
states. The international force would not be the existing United
Nations Emergency Force, since this, in Nases view, was cre-
ated merely to ensure the withdrawal of foreign troops from
Egyptian soil.
Comment
Nast-
probably is trying
to demonstrate Eg ptian reasonameness in Order to persuade
the United States to give him greater diplomatic support and
economic assistance. In previous statements, he has clearly
distinguished between a "de facto" peace and a "settlement" of
the Palestine issue. He views the latter as "out of the ques-
tion" at this time.
Israel, which is now primarily interested
in firm security guarantees from the individual Western powers,
particularly the United States, would almost certainly reject
Nasres suggestion.
5 Jan 57
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1 LIU OLA-atiai
3. ISRAEL TO COUNTER EGYPTIAN COMPENSATION
DEMAND WITH OWN CLAIMS
Israel will submit to the United Nations
before 6 January a statement of the dam-
ages caused Israel by Egypt during the
past eight years,
The statement will assert that damage from Egyptian infiltra-
tors and terrorists alone amounts to about $250,000,000, and
the total claim will greatly exceed any
estimate which Egypt might make of the damages inflicted by
the Sinai campaign.
Comment
The Egyptian foreign minister has been
instructed by Cairo to press Egypt's
claims for compensation, a move also urged by Moscow, and
Britain and France as well as Israel are developing counter-
claims. According to some reports, the British intend to cite
the equipment seized by Egypt from British bases in the Suez
as one of the items on their side.
5 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
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4. ARAB AID FOR JORDAN UNCERTAIN
The date for the visit of the Jordanian
government delegation to Cairo for the
purpose of negotiating Arab financial
aid to replace the $33,000,000 annual
British subsidy has not yet been fixed,
Cairo radio has announced, meanwhile, that a meet-
ing of the chiefs of state of Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and
Jordan will be held in Riyadh on about 28 January--suggest-
ing that further haggling over the terms of aid may be in
prospect.
Jordan's King Hussain is reported to have
little hope of obtaining Arab aid. Some reports suggest that if
Jordan's allies do not make a firm commitment, the king will
attempt to use the failure as an excuse to replace the ultra-
nationalist Nabulsi government.
In view of the drift of political events in
Jordan, the ultranationalist majority in the new legislature,
and the uncertain ability of the king to command full support
from the Jordanian army, it is questionable whether such a
maneuver by the king could succeed.
5 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
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5. INCREASING VIOLENCE ON YEMEN-ADEN BORDER LIKELY
An increase can be expected in the armed
violence which has been occurring since
24 December on the disputed Yemen-Aden
Protectorate border. Public charges by
the Yemen government that British air units
have indiscriminately bombed Yemeni vil-
lages during the fighting have not, however,
been confirmed.
The British on 29 December protested
Yemen's dissemination of "misleading" information and stated
that British-led ground forces had routed Yemeni raiders who
crossed the border. The recent increase in tension in the area
has been largely due to Egyptian and Soviet encouragement ac-
companied by the arrival of Soviet-bloc arms in Yemen as well
as a continuing trickle of Saudi arms. The dispute between
Britain and Yemen concerns the location of the border between
the two territories, and arises partly from Yemen's belief that
oil deposits may be discovered in the disputed area.
Britain's military strength at Aden appears
adequate to withstand any Yemeni incursion. In addition to
1,900 ground forces, there are 15 jet fighters.
5 Jan 57
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6. AFGHANISTAN MAY HOPE FOR SECURITY GUARANTEE
UNDER PROPOSED NEW US MIDDLE EAST POLICY
Comment on:
The unusual interest displayed by Afghan
Foreign Ministry officials in whether or
not Afghanistan is one of the countries to
be covered by the proposed new American
y m rneMiddle East suggests that Kabul may hope to be
given a security guarantee without having to acknowledge it
formally.
Afghanistan requested American military
assistance in 1954 and at that time even showed some willing-
ness to consider association with a "northern tier" defense
arrangement. Since large-scale Soviet aid started shortly
thereafter, its official policy has been one of strict "neutral-
ity?
Kabul's present interest may be inspired
partially by the increasing pace of Soviet activity in Afghan-
istan and by recent Soviet actions in Hungary.
5 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
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7. JAPANESE PREMIER MAY CALL EARLY
apanese prime minister ishibashi,
Liberal-Democratic Party secretary
general Takeo Miki and Chief Cabinet
Secretary Hirohide Ishida have decided
to call for a general election b dissolvin the lower hous
of the Diet on 21 January
Comment The possibility of early elections has
been rumored in Tokyo.
The factional strife which hampered
Ishibashi in the formation of his cabinet threatens to weaken
his authority and this might persuade him to dissolve the
Diet and seek a popular mandate. Control of the party ma-
chinery and campaign funds in an election would presumably
enable Ishibashi to increase the number of his party sup-
porters in the Diet and consolidate his position as leader.
He may also feel that the conservative cause generally would
be favored by the booming economy, the recent ending of the
state of war with the USSR, and Japan's entry into the UN.
5 Jan 57
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110
8. SUMATRAN PROGOVERNMENT COMMANDER RECRUITING
LEFTIST LABORERS FOR MILITARY SERVICE
Lt. Col. Machmour, pro-Djakarta com-
mander of the Second Regiment in North
Sumatra, is calling up rubber estate work-
ers and labor leaders for military service,
according to American sources there.
The American consulate at Medan believes
Machmour, faced with the unreliability of his command, has
decided to arm Communists and leftists against the possibility
of popular action in support of the rebel commander, Colonel
Simbolon.
Comment Estate workers in the Siantar area, where
this regiment is based, are members of a
Communist-dominated labor federation. Machmour reportedly
has been friendly with the local Communists; his use of them
presumably has the approval of central government authorities
in Medan and indicates their willingness to accept Communist
support.
Colonel Simbolon, who is in the Siantar area,
may decide that the formation of an armed Communist force calls
for early preventive action.
5 Jan 57
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9. PEIPING MAY SLOW INDUSTRIALIZATION
has
told the consulate general in Hong Kong
that serious revisions are being made in
China's Second Five-Year Plan (1958-
1962). The revisions, which are to be presented to the cen-
tral committee in February, are said to include lowering of
the over-all rate of investment and the reduction of heavy
industry's share of total investment in favor of agriculture.
The benefits derived from the revisions are in large meas-
ure to be passed on to the Chinese peasant.
concern in Peiping
over mounting pea din uissausiaction was important fac-
tor in this decision; recent events in Eastern Europe also
strongly influenced it.
The consulate general believes that these
statements may generally reflect current thinking in Peiping.
The economic policies laid down by Peiping
for the First Five-Year Plan--and projected for the second--
enabled the nation to make impressive advances toward indus-
trialization, andthe general tone of official pronouncements
from Peiping has been one of satisfaction with the way things
were going. There have been, however, recent signs of con-
cern over the rapid growth of heavy industry at the expense of
light industry and better living standards, particularly for the
farm population.
5 Jan 57
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10. BURMA TO REDUCE RICE EXPORTS TO SINO-
SOVIET BLOC
The Burmese government is reliably
reported to have reached agreement
with the USSR and other. Communist
countries with which Burma conducts
barter trade for a substantial reduction
oi rice exports o these countries during the current cal-
endar year. According to reports reaching the American
embassy in Rangoon, rice exports to the Sino-Soviet bloc
in 1957 may total as little as 250,000 tons. The bulk of the
reductions would apply to the USSR and the European Satel-
lites, as Burma is said to be well satisfied with its trade
relations with Communist China.
Under its reported new policy with
respect to barter trade, Burma will ship only enough rice
to countries with which it has barter agreements to pay
for goods they can sell Burma in competition with other
countries.
Comment Such a rice export schedule would con-
stitute a substantial disengagement on
the part of Burma from its uneconomic and unpopular bar-
ter trade with the bloc. Exports to the bloc during the
Burmese fiscal year ending 30 September approximated
500,000 tons.
Rangoon's change in policy has been en-
gendered by greatly improved prospects for cash sales of
rice�
5 Jan 57
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4114
ANNEX
Watch Report 335, 4 January 1956
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against US forces abroad, US allies or areas periph-
eral to the Orbit in the immediate future,
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East
is improbable in the immediate future.
5 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 13
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