CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/01/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161970
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: January 10, 1957

P �Approved for Release: 2019/12/04 C03161970,
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 7/
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DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Ii DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS s Cs"
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
AUTH. H -0,L0
DAT F -PREVIEWER:
10 January 1957
Copy No. 131
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Asekk Amit,
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1 I
1*-0
CONTENTS
1. PRIME MINISTER EDEN RESIGNS
2. YEMEN-ADEN BORDER HOSTILITIES
(page 4),
(page 3).
3. KREMLIN TO ISSUE STATEMENT ON US PLANS FOR
MIDDLE EAST (page 6).
4. EGYPT TO INSIST THAT CANAL TOLLS BE PAID EGYPTIAN
AUTHORITY (page 7).
5. MASJUIVII WITHDRAWAL FROM INDONESIAN CABINET
page 8).
6. MOLLETIS ALGERIAN POLICY
(page 9).
7. SOVIET AIRCRAFT ASSOCIATED WITH NUCLEAR TESTS
ACTIVE NEAR GUIDED MISSILE RANGE (
(page 10).
8. INFLATION IN SOUTH KOREA MAY RAISE CRITICAL ISSUE
FOR US-KOREAN RELATIONS (page 11).
10 Jan 57
'THE TAIWAN STRAIT
(page 12)
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
TOP SECRET
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1-7fI1't-r-If1I11 To 11AL
1. PRIME MINISTER EDEN RESIGNS
Comment on:
Sir Anthony Eden's resignation offers
the opportunity for a new prime minister
to restore foreign and domestic confi-
dence in a conservative British govern-
ment. Eden's belligerent defense of the Suez intervention at
a time of mounting troubles in administering gas rationing
had brought an increase in popular demands for his departure.
Some government leaders may also have felt that efforts to
restore relations with Britain's allies and with the Common-
wealth were being retarded by Eden's continuance as prime
minister.
Either Leader of the House of Commons
Butler or Chancellor of the Exchequer Macmillan may be
asked to form a new government. The appointment of Butler,
who has avoided any responsibility for the Suez intervention,
would present a clearer break with the past.
The decision on calling early general elec-
tions rests with the new prime minister. In view of the Con-
servatives' substantial parliamentary majority he will prob-
ably decide against elections at this time, when public opinion
appears to be turning away from the government.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
=0/1-17VT*7711177tTrIrlY A 11"
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+me.
2. YEMEN-ADEN BORDER HOSTILITIES
Comment on:
The Cairo press report on 9 January
that Yemen had "declared a state of war
against Britain" appears to be part of a
growing propaganda effort, in which Yemen
is receiving active Egyptian and Soviet sup-
port, to discredit the British and the West
in the Middle East.
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Little Aden
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ADEN COLONY AND PROTECTORATE
SAUDI ARABIA
roe
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ADEN PROTECTORATE
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ADEN COLONY
(UK)
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RECENT BORDER INCIDENTS
9 JANUARY 1957
SOCOTRA
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin
tOP�SECARET
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Page 4
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A 1.11 h. I 1.4%-.1111-4
110
The
Yemeni government radio, meanwhile, has demanded res-
toration by Britain of Aden Protectorate and Aden Colony
to the kingdom of Yemen.
Attacks by Yemeni tribesmen and dissi-
dents on villages and outposts in the protectorate have in-
creased markedly since late November. The outbreaks
follow the arrival in Yemen during October of an initial ship-
ment of Soviet-bloc arms. Protectorate tribesmen have
retaliated against Yemeni villages, and British-led native
troops anddetachment8 of British forces have on several oc-
casions chased the attackers back into Yemen under "hot
pursuit!' British jet fighters have been in action against the
intruders, and on 31 December encountered light antiaircraft
fire for the first time.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
TOP SECRET
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"I klf OLit-t(t. I
3, KREMLIN TO ISSUE STATEMENT ON US PLANS FOR
MIDDLE EAST
Comment on:
hast about tnr
the Soviet government intends to
issue a "special statement" condemning
the new American policy in the Middle
ee days."
the Russians are
"greatly perturbed" by the plan which they "consider as a
Marshall Plan � of aligning many countries
against them." their campaign against the plan
is "gathering momen um.!
The issuance of the proposed statement
probably would coincide with Chou En-lai's departure from
Moscow on 11 January� Chou might join the USSR in an offi-
cial attack on proposed American moves in the area in order
to strengthen the effect of the statement.
he East German and Budapest communiques al-
ready had "condemned the new American policy" and his en-
couragement to the Arabs to "stand together against" the new
American policy are a continuation of Moscow's attempts to
display bloc solidarity and to get Arab support for any counter-
move it decides to make
the Soviet ambassador
in Cairo would explain to Nasr the Soviet analysis of the mil-
itary, diplomatic and economic aspects of the new American
policy�
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
�110P�SEeRE-T�
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4. EGYPT TO INSIST THAT CANAL TOLLS BE PAID
EGYPTIAN AUTHORITY
stfter the Suez Canal clear-
ance operation Egypt "will not hesitate...
to stop tne passage of any ship which does not pay the tolls, as
happened with the British and French ships which were not pay-
ing these tolls to the Egyptian administration:'
Comment Egypt, encouraged by Moscow, will al-
most certainly adopt a much firmer attitude
in regard to possible flouting of the Egyptian canal authority than
it did before the Anglo-French intervention. With reference to
reports that Egypt would refuse passage to British and French
ships until Israel has withdrawn behind the 1949 armistice lines,
the American embassy in Cairo believes that the details of the
Egyptian position on future canal operations have not yet been
settled.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
TOP SECRET
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-A
5. MASJUMI WITHDRAWAL FROM INDONESIAN CABINET
Comment on:
The withdrawal of the Masjumi party
from the Indonesian cabinet is a severe
blow to Premier Al's government, but
does not necessarily mean its immediate
downfall. Although two small Christian
parties are likely to follow the Masjumils example, the sur-
vival of the cabinet will depend on whether the opportunistic
Nandlatul Ulama (NU) adheres to its public commitment to
continue support of the present regime.
Ali is favored by the unwavering backing
of President Sukarno, who has reiterated his desire to avoid
a "cabinet crisis" until the Sumatran problem is settled.
The government can also depend on continued Communist as-
sistance. In a parliamentary showdown, Ali can expect to be
upheld in a vote of confidence as long as the NU stays in line.
Parliament is due to reconvene on 21 January.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
r'Jr.1"11-1
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6. MOLLET'S ALGERIAN POLICY
Comment on:
Premier Mollet's 9 January declaration
of French policy on Algeria contains a
few minor concessions in anticipation of
the UN Algerian debate late this month
but will do little to alleviate explosive
conditions in Algeria. Its main intent seems
to be to hold right-center support in the Na-
tional Assembly. The only major new ele-
ment is an invitation for representatives from democratic
countries--but not under UN auspices--to observe the elec-
tions promised three months after a cease-fire.
On 8 January, Mollet told Ambassador
Dillon he feared the French population in Algeria might re-
sort to violence. He warned that a UN resolution condemn-
ing French policy could trigger off counterterrorism that
might lead to the overthrow of the present regime in France.
He said the French delegation would walk out if the General
Assembly insists on its competence to discuss the issue, and
that France would withdraw permanently from the UN if a res-
olution condemning French policy were passed.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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7. SOVEET AIRCRAFT ASSOCIATED WITH NUCLEAR TESTS
ACTIVE NEAR GUIDED MISSILE RANGE
Since 25 November 1956, an aircraft
associated with the Soviet nuclear weap-
ons test program has been active on at
least two occasions at Kapustin Yar air-
field, which serves the missile rangehead,
an' a rzama ield near the nuclear weapons laboratories
at Sarov/Shatki.
At least two other nuclear test-associated
aircraft have been scheduled from Semipalatinsk into airfields
near the rangehead during the same period.
Comment
The pattern of current flight activity in-
dicates that an experimental project in-
volving both the Soviet nuclear weapons and guided missile
development programs is under way. This is the first evi-
dence of an association between these programs since 2 Feb-
ruary 1956, when a missile firing occurred which may have
involved a nuclear test.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 10
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8. INFLATION IN SOUTH KOREA MAY RAISE CRITICAL
ISSUE FOR US-KOREAN RELATIONS
Comment on:
The Seoul wholesale price index has
reached the level which, under the
terms of an August 1955 US-Korean
agreement, will probably require an
the hwan-dollar exchange rate at the
end of the first quarter of 1957. Any attempt to implement
the agreement seems certain to enrage President Rhee and
revive the difficulties accompanying this issue. He has in-
dicated that he will resist strenuously any attempt to revise
the rate. Rhee is obsessed with the notion that revisions of
the exchange rate have been the primary cause of inflation,
and that a fixed rate would ensure fiscal stability.
The agreement, which was achieved only
after protracted negotiations, calls for a 500-1 rate so long
as the index does not rise by more than 25 percent above the
September 1955 level. In the week ending 4 January, prices
rose 6.9 percent to bring the index to a point 26. 3 percent
above the base, and prices are continuing to rise. The black
market exchange rate exceed f..3 1000-1.
The American embassy reports that the
Ministry of Finance directed the Bank of Korea to withhold
the above figures, but that they had already been made pub-
lic. This suggests that political pressure may be brought to
bear on the Bank of Korea to manipulate the future price in-
dex.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 11
enre-rrni7NTWIT A T
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SUMMARY
12 December 1956 - 9 January 1957)
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Taiwan Strait Problem
1. There were no significant combat oTerations in the
area during the period.
2. During December a number of jet light bombers were
transferred from Manchuria to the Hangchow-Nanking area.
This movement probably represents the return of the Chinese
Communist 20th Air Division, or elements thereof, to East
China, following its re-equipment with IL-28,s. Transfer of
the entire division would double jet light bomber strength in
this area, placing some 120 of these aircraft within easy com-
bat radius of the offshore islands and Taiwan.
10 Jan 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 12
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TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION
9 JANUARY 1957
CHINESE COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND:
DESIGNATIONS
PRIMARY AIRFIELD
CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN
AREA WITH PREPARED RUNWAY
GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER.
SECONDARY AIRFIELD
AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES
OR FIELDS OF LESSER IMPORTANCE.
RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN
5000 FEET.
ACTIVE BASE FOR MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIR-
CRAFT. SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES
MAY BE USABLE BY JETS
�
OPERATIONAL
NACTIVE BASES CAPABLE OF USE BY AIRCRAFT
�
SERVICEABLE
CURRENT STATUS UNDETERMINED
UNKNOWN
USABILITY
I 7
MIG-15
MIG-17
TU-4
11-213
TU-2,
IL-10
LA-9/11
LI-2
ETC.
UNKNOWN
FL'
*FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPER-
ATIONS AT PRESENT.
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STATUTE MILES
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Railroad Primary roads
-F Under construction or projected Secondary roads
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