CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/10/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161869
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: October 25, 1956

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for Release: 2019/10/23
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
25 October 1956
Copy No, 1 1
DOCUMENT NO. )
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. XA
11 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: 70-2
DATE:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCIE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
0
TO-P-SEERE-T
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CONTENTS
1. THE HUNGARIAN SITUATION
(page 3)
2. MILITARY ACTIVITIES CONNECTED WITH THE
HUNGARIAN CRISIS ) (page 5).
3. ROVIRT LEADERS ACCEPTING NEW POLISH REGIME
) (page 6).
4. POLAND REPORTEDLY TO ASK FOR AMERICAN AID
NEXT MONTH (page 8).
5. USSR TESTS AIR-TO-SURFACE MISSILES
) (page 9).
6. FRANCE STIFFENS POSITION ON ALGERIA
(page 10).
7. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT'S IMPRESSIONS OF SINO-
SOVIET BLOC (page 11).
8. LARGE-SCALE BURMESE ARMY DRIVE ON KARENS
(page 12).
25 Oct 56
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 13)
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1. THE HUNGARIAN SITUATION
The Hungarian radio in the early morn-
ing hours of 25 October admitted that
as of midnight (Budapest time) fighting
continued in certain sections of Budapest,
contradicting an earlier broadcast from
asserted that the "enemy adventure" had been
"liquidated" and order restored in the city. Claiming that
the situation had improved since earlier in the evening, the
Budapest broadcast stated that "the armed attackers are be-
coming more and more isolated in some places:t but added
that the attackers "have begun to start new actions; they are
carrying out surprise attacks in groups of two or three'
Soviet and Hungarian military action has
included the use of tanks, artillery fire and, in one instance,
strafing aircraft against the "rebel" forces, who apparently
have occupied a number of industrial plants, apartment build-
ings and public buildings within the city of Budapest. No ac-
curate reports of over-all casualties have been announced,
but eyewitness reports appearing in the press suggest a high
casualty rate.
Throughout the day, Radio Budapest--
which had been under siege for several hours in the morn-
ing--broadcast appeals from party and government leaders,
regional party organizations, workers and front groups call-
ing for an end to the "senseless bloodshed:' Broadcasts im-
plied that when the fighting ended the new government would
continue a program of democratization and equality with the
USSR, and promised that the Soviet troops who "are risking
their lives to protect" the peaceful citizens of Budapest would
return to their garrisons after order is restored.
The Moscow broadcast at 2235 (Budapest
time), which claimed liquidation of the attackers, branded
the Budapest rioting as a "counterrevolutionary revolt" of
25 Oct 56
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"Fascist thugs" who represent the "forces of foreign reac-
tom!' This Moscow commentary, the first Soviet reaction
since the fighting began, also alleged that the outbreak
"obviously had been in preparation for some time."
The fighting in Hungary--the greatest
challenge to Communist authority yet to emerge in Eastern
Europe--may cause the Soviet leaders to return to a tougher
policy in the Satellites generally, and might cause them to
reassess in particular their apparent decision to accommo-
date Gomulka in Poland. The Soviet decision not to inter-
vene in Poland was presumably based in part on a general
reluctance to compromise so drastically and openly their
de-Stalinization campaign and "peaceful coexistence" line.,
This reluctance may already have been diminished by the
necessity for direct intervention in Hungary. Although threats
to the Communist regime in Poland, as distinct from threats
to Soviet control, appear considerably less potent than those
in Hungary, Moscow may now review its estimate of the abil-
ity of Gomulka and other Satellite leaders to maintain order.
The situation in Hungary outside of Buda-
pest is not yet clear but there has been firm evidence of vio-
lence in other Hungarian cities.
25 Oct 56
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2. MILITARY ACTIVITIES CONNECTED WITH THE
HUNGARIAN CRISIS
Comment on:
on 24 October, the
2nd Guards Mechanized Division,
Soviet Forces in Hungary, which is
normally stationed in Kecskemet, 50
miles south of Budapest, made a hurried move to Budapest
and took up positions there.
On the morning of 24 October, a de--
tached element of the 32nd Mechanized Division, Soviet
Independent Mechanized Army in Rumania, was on the
move from its garrison in Timisoara, western Rumania.
� Six Mos-
cow-based military air transports normally associated with
VIP trips were noted in flights to Hungary on 24 October,
with one proceeding on to Belgrade. Two of these were the
planes which carried top Kremlin leaders to Warsaw on 19
October. Khrushchev, however, was seen in Moscow with
� Bulganin on 24 October.
A unit of the 5th
Hungarian Rifle Division normally stationed in Kecskemet
destroy barricades and to stop
the mobs.
25 Oct 56
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3. SOVIET LEADERS ACCEPTING NEW POLISH REGIME
the Soviet leaders were more
concerned on their 19 October trip to
Warsaw with preventing the Polish
central committee from passing an
anti-Soviet resolution than about per-
sonnel changes in the politburo; al-
though they insisted that Marshal
Rokossowski be retained. Gomulka
remained adamant on Rokossowskies
dismissal, however, and the Soviet
leaders yielded, requesting that a
Polish delegation come to Moscow
to continue discussions.
The Polish leaders reportedly did not
commit themselves to the Moscow
trip,
Polish
party leaders apparently are leaking
the story that Gomulka, Ochab and
Cyrankiewicz en a ively have agreed to fly to Moscow on
26 October. These three reportedly talked by telephone
most of the night of 22 October with the Kremlin and in-
sisted that before they would come, the Kremlin must stop
all threatening military movements. Moscow apparently
is meeting this conditions for Premier Cyrankiewicz an-
nounced to parliament on 24 October that the Soviet troops
would be back at their bases within two days.
Soviet naval vessels, including at
least one cruiser and three destroyers, which were off
Gdynia on 22 October departed the morning of 23 October.
this force was
conducting a routine exercise in t ��th� Baltic which
was well under way on 18 October. While it is probable
that the exercise has been terminated, several Soviet naval
units remain in the vicinity of the Polish coast. Soviet air
patrols also have been noted along the Polish coast between
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Kaliningrad and the Danish island of Bornholm, commenc-
ing on 19 October and continuing through at least 23 October.
Warsaw's editorial of 22 October, which
endorsed the changes in Poland, criticized President Eisen-
hower and Secretary Dulles for their remarks on Poland, and
reaffirmed Polish solidarity with socialist countries, was re-
published in Pravda and Izvestia on 23 October. The Amer-
ican embassy in Moscow believes that the USSR is attempting
to place the best possible appearance on Polish developments
and is leading up to an authoritavnstatemnt which will pub-
licly approve the new regime.
25 Oct 56
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4. POLAND REPORTEDLY TO ASK FOR AMERICAN
AID NEXT MONTH
Foreign Minister Rapacki
may tubutibs the possibilities of Ameri-
can aid to Poland with Secretary Dulles
at the United Nations General Assembly session in Novem-
ber. the new Polish leaders are coming
to the conclusion that without Western, specifically Ameri-
can, economic help, they will not be able to solve .their
problems and will in the long run have no independence
from Moscow even if the Soviet Union lets them have their
way now.
Comment
An official of the Yugoslav Foreign
Ministry on 23 October told the Ameri-
can embassy in Belgrade that the Poles had inquired about
Yugoslav aid arrangements with the United States but had
not asked Belgrade to make a "preliminary reconnaissance"
on their behalf.
The American embassy in London re-
ported that the British Foreign Office has been sufficiently
encouraged by events in Poland to consider a camouflaged
loan to Poland in the form of a generous trade agreement
when British-Polish trade talks commence in late November.
25 Oct 56
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5. USSR TESTS MR-TO-SURFACE MISSILES
TU46 jet medium
bombers launched single objects--
-at a ground target
in the Vladimirovka area. The objects were powered and
capable of flight for at least five minutes.
The aircraft were from a "special
purpose" unit which may now be subordinate to the Sixth
Bomber Corps of the Long Range Air Force.
Comment This is the first firm evidence that air-
to-surface missiles have been fired in
the USSR. Although the type of propulsion and guidance is
unknown, these are believed to be subsonic missiles devel-
oped since World War II--possibly a version of the "Korner
antishipping missile� which has been under development for
several years.
The circumstances of the testing activity
suggest that a Soviet air-to-surface missile may be nearing
an operational stage of development. It has been estimated
that the USSR probably could have an operational subsonic
air-to-surface missile before the end of 1957.
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6, FRANCE STIFFENS POSITION ON ALGERIA
While some concern is evident in
Paris over the effects the capture of
five Algerian nationalist leaders may
have on France's position in Morocco
and Tunisia, the government thus far appears to have no
intention of backing down. France's case in the UN Gen-
eral Assembly may be further weakened,,however, and
France, in the hope of offsetting the unfavorable reaction
to the plane seizure, may concentrate on its complaints
against Egypt rather than make the planned "declaration
of intent" on Algeria. Premier Mollet has announced
France's intention of presenting to the Security Council
its complaints against Egypt for shipping arms to Algeria.
Meanwhile, non-Communist French
deputies generally have indicated enthusiastic support for
the government's stand. There are some signs of discon-
tent in the cabinet, however, and Mollet's reaffirmation on
23 October of his intention to continue the pacification ef-
fort will keep alive the apprehensions of the Radicals, as
well as those of some of his Socialist Party.
25 Oct 56
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7. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT'S IMPRESSIONS OF
SINO-SOVIET BLOC
Foreign Minister Abdulgani, who ac-
companied President Sukarno on a
seven-week tour of the Sino-Soviet
bloc, told the American ambassador
in Djakarta that the president believed
was "really working" in Communist China.
Sukarno and most members of his entourage were more im-
pressed generally with Communist China than by the Soviet
Union. In Yugoslavia, Sukarno was intrigued by that gov-
ernment's ability to obtain aid from both East and West.
Sukarno will probably make public his
impressions of bloc countries and their application to
Indonesia when he addresses the Constituent Assembly,
which he hopes to convene on 10 November. He has fre-
quently stated that Indonesia can borrow profitably from
both blocs in writing a constitution and in charting its
economic philosophy. His sympathy for Marxism, now
reinforced by his favorable impressions of Communist
China, may lead him to advise even more strongly than
heretofore a socialized economy and a highly centralized
government. He will probably endorse increased rela-
tions in all fields with bloc countries and particularly with
Communist China.
25 Oct 56
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8. LARGE-SCALE BURMESE ARMY DRIVE ON KARENS
The Burmese army, following the end
of the monsoon rains in mid-October,
has started a drive against the Karen
insurgents in eastern Burma� The drive
eing pressed in conformance with Premier Ba Swe's
promise to do everything in his power to restore law and
order within two years. The scope of the present cam-
paign and concentration on the Karens may be due to their
reported agreement last summer to co-operate closely
with the Communist insurgents.
Although previous actions against the
Karens have been indecisive, the American army attach�
in Rangoon reports that the army is employing encircling
tactics this year which are designed to prevent the insur-
gents from escaping to safe areas as they have in the past.
The attach�s inclined to believe these tactics will succeed.
The prospects for success are further en-
hanced by greater co-operation from Thailand, which has
just signed a treaty of friendship with Burma. The Thai for-
eign minister reportedly has indicated Bangkok's willingness
to move Karen refugees into the interior of Thailand in order
to prevent their contact with insurgents still in the field.
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 24 October)
Very heavy military traffic in the Israeli
Central Command area was noted on 23 October, with some
small units, including a water-tank company, moving south--
ward, according to the US army attach�n Tel Aviv. He re-
ported bridge construction, preparation of camouflage netting,
very heavy laying of communication wire, and a large number
of water trailers lined up in an area about six miles southeast
of Tel Aviv. The attach�aid also that the 11th Infantry Bri-
gade appeared to be combat-loading preparatory to moving out.
A reconnaissance in the Northern Command area revealed no
military activity, with only a few troops observed. Israeli mil-
itary activity was reported on 23 October to be continuing in
forward areas obbosite West Jordan and in theSouthern Com-
mand.
Jordanian chief of staff Nuwar stated on
24 October, following the meetings of the Syrian, Egyptian, and
Jordan military representatives, that Syria, Egypt and Jordan
had established a unified army command. He said this com-
mand, under Egypt's Major General Amer, would operate in the
event of an Arab-Israeli war. (Press)
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A "Polish" submarine and an auxiliary were
observed entering the Great Belt on a northerly course on 2'1 Oc-
tober, according to the US naval attach�n Copenhagen. This
boat is probably one of two Soviet submarines to be transferred
to Egypt by the USSR. The circumstances of this departure from
the Baltic follow the pattern of the previous transfer of four So-
viet mine sweepers and two destroyers to Egypt. If destined
for Egypt, the submarine and its auxiliary should pass Gibral-
tar on about 29 October and arrive in Alexandria on about 6
November.
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