CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/06/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161841
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: June 25, 1957

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/ CURRENT
/ INTELLIGENCE
/ BULLETIN
.004
25 June 1957
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DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. )1C,
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS iirCirdt
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
Copy No,
AUTH: H 70-2
DATE:
EVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
97/107/47,1M TOP SECRET v ,c/z to e#74
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I WA t...11.:A.A.14
CONTENTS
New
CH EXPERT FORESEES DRASTIC REFORM FOLLOW-
ING CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS page 3).
20 USSR FIRES MISSILE 950 NAUTICAL MILES
(page 4),
0. USSR TO DELIVER MORE JET AIRCRAFT TO EGYPT
(page 5).
\&40 USSR OFFERS TO FINANCE ICELAND'S PURCHASE OF EAST
GERMAN FISHING CRAFT (page 6).
Lj 5.rSHAWSIPOLITICAL ROLE MAY BE CHALLENGED
(page 7).
416. DJAKARTA MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
0 h7� SIHANOUK RESIGNS AS CAMBODIAN PREMIE
(page 8).
page 9).
Pi o 8. CHINESE NATIONALISTS AND SOUTH KOREANS TO DISCUSS
NAVAL BLOCKADE page 10).
REMOVAL OF PRO-COMMUNIST OICENAWAN MAYOR FACES
DIFFICULTIES (page 11).
25 June 57
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�CttratI1JEM1711V
I. FRENCH EXPERT FORESEES DRASTIC REFORM
FOLLOWING CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS
The Fre h member of the Managing
Board of the European Pa ments Union
predicted that a
"drastic reform in the French economic
structure will inevitably result" from the present French
economic crisis. He told an American representative that
the many steps to be taken by the French government would
probably not follow "orthodox economic policy" and might not
conform to "the letter" of some of France's international eco-
nomic commitments.
He stated that the National Economic Coun-
cil had already decided to introduce drastic credit restrictions
to emphasize the consequences of continued failure to reduce
the budgetary deficit. He wondered, however, whether a "man-
ageable budget deficit" is possible as long as the Algerian crisis
exists.
Comment Stopgap measures tightening credit restric-
tions and "temporarily" restoring various
restrictions on imports have been applied in the past few weeks,
and Finance Minister Gaillard has just told the National Assem-
bly he will seek a foreign loan. Even discounting the burden of
the Algerian war, it is doubtful that the Bourges-Maunoury pro-
gram can attain long-range equilibrium for the French economy.
25 June 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
-6021VHDENT-TI-AL-
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1 WI hJE4-.114-4
2. USSR FIRES MISSILE 950 NAUTICAL MILES
the firing of a ballis-
tic missile--designated a "63-series"
missile--to the 950-nautical-mile im-
pact area of the Kapustin Yar guided-
missile test range.
Comment This is the first evidence of a Soviet
ballistic missile firing to such a dis-
tance. Previous firings have not exceeded a 650-nautical-
mile range. The new downrange stations involved in this
firing have been active since July 1956, and had recently
been engaged in extensive practice procedures.
The "63-series" is probably a new mis-
sile test series. Although this could be
the first test of a new missile, it more probably involved the
present 650-700-nautical-mile missile modified by the reduc-
tion of warhead weight. Such a modified missile could have a
maximum operational range of 1,000 to 1,200 nautical miles.
25 June 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
T1313-SEGRET
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WI 01:4�...1%/.:a
Noe %of
3. USSR TO DELIVER MORE JET AIRCRAFT
TO EGYPT
Comment on:
17 MIG-17's will be de-
livered in August. The aircraft
apparently will be made operational
soon after their arrival, since the attach�nquired whether
additional aircraft assembly technicians would be needed in
Egypt. The Egyptians have planned to accept instructors
and sufficient aircraft assembly specialists to permit assem-
bly of one plane per day.
The aircraft presumably will be de-
livered under the Soviet-Egyptian agreement of last Janu-
ary under which the USSR apparently agreed not only to
replace Sinai losses but also to provide materiel further
to develop Egypt's armed forces. Fourteen MIG-17 aircraft
may have been delivered in late March, but this is the first
firm evidence of an aircraft delivery scheduled since the Suez
hostilities.
Exclusive of any of the aircraft men-
tioned above, the Egyptian air force is currently believed to
include 10-20 MIG-17 jet fighters, 40 MIG-15 jet fighters,
and 35 IL-28 jet light bombers.
25 June 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
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�e-Ertzlr
Nue
4., USSR OFFERS TO FINANCE ICELAND'S PURCHASE OF
EAST GERMAN FISHING CRAFT
The USSR has offered to finance the
$3,250,000 cost of Iceland's purchas-
ing a total of 17 fishing craft from East
Germany, with a 15-year, 2. 5-percent
loan. Iceland has already ordered five 75-ton motorboats
and has recently negotiated for the procurement of 12 addi-
tional vessels of 250 tons each.
The US embassy comments that the Ice-
landic cabinet will find it difficult to reject such an attrac-
tive offer.
Comment
25 June 57
Such a loan would increase Iceland's
already extensive economic dependence
on the USSR.
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4.3.GlaDLL' 1
5. SHAH'S POLITICAL ROLE MAY BE CHALLENGED
A group of some 30 high-ranking Iranian
army and police officers are agreed that
the Shah must withdraw from politics and
from the day-to-day operations of the gov-
ernment, If the Shah
refuses to "rule instead of reign," the group will create a re-
public. They feel that the best time to make their preparations
is while the Shah is absent from the country, but they will take
no action without assurances of strong support from abroad.
(NOFORN)
Comment
Prime Minister Eqbal, who is not known to
be connected with the above group, has re-
peatedly indicated ie will resign
unless the Shah stops interfering in his administration of the
government. The Shah plans to return from Europe in August
or September, and may face a showdown at that time.
There has been a steady deterioration of political
conditions in Iran and a growing attitude that the country would
do better under a republican form of government.
25 June 57
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talfl Nr "Lora N I /lila
vase
6. DJAKARTA MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
Comment on:
The most significant change in the vot-
ing pattern in the 22 June Djakarta
municipal elections is the Communist
Party's rise to second place with a vote
of 123,000 from a poor fourth place in
when iOI1ed 76,000. This Communist gain is prob-
ably the result of vigorous campaigning and President Sukar-
no's personal encouragement of Communist activity. The
Masjumi retained first place. The National Party and the
Nandlatul Ulama (NU), both non-Communist, which held
second and third places respectively in 1955, were reduced
to third and fourth places. On 22 June, the Nationalists
polled 106,000 and the NU 94,000.
The Masjumi's plurality in almost com-
plete returns indicates that anti-Communist and anti-Sukarno
forces have retained substantial strength despite strong and
continuing efforts to repress them. The Masjumrs vote of
132,000 of the 455,000 votes counted, however, gives it a
margin less than that achieved in Djakarta during the 1955
national elections.
Provincial elections in the remainder of
Java are scheduled for the near future. The Masjumi won a
plurality in West Java in 1955, but polled fourth in Central
and East Java. The Communist Party held a strong second
place in both Central and East Java in 1955.
25 June 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
CONFIDENTIAL
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o1ikL4J11.14.1.
Nirof
7,, SIHANOUK RESIGNS AS CAMBODIAN PREMIER
Comment on:
The resignation on 21 June of Cambo-
dia's Premier Prince Sihanouk and his
scheduled departure next month for med-
ical treatment in France may foreshadow
a significant change in the nation's polit-
ical pattern. Since the general elections
of September 1955, there have been eight
Cambodian governments, each under
� Sihanouk's control.
During this period dissatisfaction engendered
by Sihanouk's autocratic and often erratic leadership has steadily
intensified as a result of recurrent administrative crises, The
chief spokesman of Cambodian discontent is Dap Chhuon, the
minister of national security, who has also frequently attacked
Sihanouk's foreign policy of friendly relations with the Commu-
nist bloc.
Sihanouk may grant more freedom of action
to the next government. Such a regime may also be expected
to continue the tougher attitude toward Communist subversion
recently adopted by Sihanouk. Anti-Communist Leng Ngeth,
capable former premier and recently Cambodian ambassador
to Moscow, is being mentioned as the next premier. Dap Chhuon
also aspires to the post, but there is strong opposition to him,
particularly from the royal family.
25 June 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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4.J.L.A.4.11.11.1:4
8. CHINESE NATIONALISTS AND SOUTH KOREANS
TO DISCUSS NAVAL BLOCKADE
Vice Admiral
Liang, commander in chief of the
Chinese Nationalist navy, has been
auffiorized to discuss during an early July visit to South
Korea the establishment of a joint naval patrol to blockade
the Chinese mainland and North Korea. Joint naval exer-
cises and use of facilities for training and operations are
also to be considered.
Comment There are no known military agreements
between the two countries, although a
limited number of exchange visits of military personnel are
made on the basis of verbal understandings. A treaty of friend-
ship, which Liang may try to conclude, reportedly has been
blocked by Rhee's demand for recognition of the "Rhee line"
and for territorial claims in Manchuria, and by Chinese de-
mands for special treatment of Chinese living in Korea.
Nationalist naval units operating out of
South Korean bases would have a limited capability for inter-
fering with North China shipping, but such action would incur
the risk of retaliation from the Chinese Communists.
The South Korean navy is under the opera-
tional control of the UN Command.
25 June 57
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VIEW
Nue
9. REMOVAL OF PRO-COMMUNIST OKINAWAN MAYOR
FACES DIFFICULTIES
Comment on:
pp munist Mayor
Kamejiro Senaga of Naha, Okinawa,
face serious difficulties in achieving
his removal from office,
They must win at least 20
of the 30 assembly seats in the election scheduled for 4
August.
The conservative opposition is ham-
pered by the decision of three and possibly five anti-Senaga
assemblymen not to run for re-election. Senaga already
has begun a campaign on behalf of his supporters in which
he undoubtedly will use the city administrative organization.
He has threatened strong action against city employees who
support his opponents.
Senaga probably will pose as the champion
of Okinawan grievances against the United States and empha-
size such popular issues as reversion to Japan and opposition
to the American acquisition of land for military use. Amer-
ican observers feel there is a good chance for the conservatives
to win 20 assembly seats, thereby assuring a vote of no confi-
dence. Senaga's defeat in the subsequent election for mayor is
believed uncertain.
25 June 57
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