CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/03/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03160623
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: March 20, 1959

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20 March 1959
Copy No. C 63
CENTRAL
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INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN'
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20 MARCH 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Khrushchev strikes moderate pose at
press conference; accepts proposal
for foreign ministers' meeting on
11 May.
JAEIC statement on previously un-
reported Soviet nuclear explosion.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Turkish foreign minister empha-
sizes support for Iraqi regime; warns
of strong Turkish reaction if Nasir
intervenes.
Nepal - Prospect of one-party govern-
ment gives promise of reduced insta-
bility for near future.
,
III. THE WEST
0 Adenauer asserts willingness to ex-
tend de facto recognition to East
German regime in return for main-
tenance of status quo in Berlin.
(S) Former Costa Rican President Figueres
planning moves against Caribbean dic-
tatorships.
LATE ITEMS
0 Geneva - USSR agrees to US article
on duration of nuclear test cessa-
tion treaty.
0 Tibet - Dalai Lama reported fleeing
and seeking asylum in India.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
20 March 1959
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR: Khrushchev attempted to create an impression
of moderation and restraint in his press conference on 19
March, which apparently was intended as a response to
President Eisenhower's address to the nation on 16 March.
The Soviet premier's remarks, timed to coincide with
Prime Minister Macmillan's arrival in Washington, asserted
that Western sentiment favoring negotiations "confirms the
realism and timeliness of Soviet proposals." He promised
to consider any "reasonable" Western counterproposals, de-
cared his readiness to accept a foreign ministers' meeting
on 11 May, but reiterated clearly his preference for an im-
mediate summit conference. Khrushchev evaded a direct
reply when asked if the USSR would refrain from any "con-
crete political actions" regarding Berlin in view of Pres-
ident Eisenhower's statement about a possible summit
meeting this summer. He reaffirmed Moscow's intention
to sign a separate peace treaty with East Germany if the
West rejects the Soviet proposal for a treaty with both tier-
man states.
USSR - Nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Ene-r Intelli-
gence Committee issued the following statement on 19 March
1959:
A review and detailed analysis of geophysical
records and radiochemical data from the US Atomic
Energy Detection System has revealed evidence of
a previously unreported Soviet nuclear explosion at
about 1010:45 hours GMT on 21 October 1958, in the
vicinity of the Novaya Zemlya test site. Signals
now have been reported from six electromagnetic
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stations. A preliminary estimate indicates that
the yield was probably less than five kilotons.
This makes a total of seyentv-four Soviet
mirlpar tcaqtg ritatpr.trarl to antra
II. ASIA-AFRICA
*Turkey-Iraq: aurkish Foreign Minister Zorlu, in sep-
arate talks with the British and American ambassadors on
16 March, emphasized Turkey's support of the Qasim govern-
ment,. He warned that Turkey's reaction would be "strong
and immediate," implying even armed intervention, if Egyp
takes "positive action"--either direct or indirect--against
Iraa. Turkey has given Oasim assurances of its support7
(Page 1) �
Nepal: With half the results announced in Nepal's first na-
tional eTeCtion the Nepali Congress party, moderately social-
ist with neutralist foreign policy views, seems assured of
gaining a majority in the new parliament. The Communist
party has won only one seat so far. A single-party govern-
ment should at least initially reduce the chronic instability
/Nepal has experienced since the� overthrow of the Rana olig-
archy in 1950-51. (Page 3)
III. THE WEST
6 West Germany: hancellor Adenauer has told party offi-
cials that he is willing to extend de facto recognition to the
East German Government, provided that the status quo in Be
lin can be maintained. He based this major potential change
in West German: policy on Bonn's need to avoid negotiations
on disengagement and to gain time to work out some broad so-
lution of East-West problems. Adenauer apparently is willing
to permit dealings between the Western powers and East German
officials on access to Berlin in return for a guarantee of con-
tinued free access2 ) (Page 4)
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Caribbean area: Former Costa Rican President Jose
Figueres, during his current trip to Cuba, will probably try
to dissuade Castro from actions that would increase Commu-
nist capabilities in the area, and seek Castro's help for his
own plans for ousting the regimes in Nicaragua and the Domin-
ican Republic. He and his ally, Venezuelan President Betan-
( -court, are deeply concerned over Castro's demagoguery and
his predilection for supporting pro-Communist group
revolutionaries in his crusade against dictatorships.
(Page 5)
IV. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
(Available during the preceding week)
Threats to the Stability of the US Military Facilities Position
In the Caribbean Area and Brazil. SNIE 100-3-59. 10 March
1959.
The Outlook for Jordan. NIE 36.3-59. 10 March 1959.
Chinese Communist Intentions and Probable Courses of
Action in the Taiwan Strait Area. SNIE 100-4-59. 13 March
1959.
Berlin. SNIE 100-2/1-59. 17 March 1959.
LATE ITEMS
*USSR - Nuclear test talks: an an abrupt reversal, the USSR
has agreed at the Geneva talks to the American draft article on
the duration of a nuclear test cessation treaty. The Soviet lead-
ers probably believe this demonstration of willingness to mak
concessions in important East-West negotiations will increase
pressure on the West to agree to Soviet terms for talks on Ber-
lin and a German peace treaty. Moscow remains in disagree-
ment with Western views on voting and inspection procecture,g
20 Mar 59
DAILY BRIEF iii
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rand the staffing of inspection posts. Following Prime Minis-
ter Macmillan's talks with Khrushchey British officials indi
cated their belief that the USSR will make no concessions on
its insistence on veto powers in the proposed control commis
sion except possibly as part of a "package
me etingTh
AcTinet:C_Ene Dalai Lama fled Lhasa on 17 Marsh and
requested asylum in India through the Indian counsul genera
in Lhasa,
A
irom tne Inman political officer in Sikkim. As of 13 March
the Dalai Lama was under protective custody of Tibetan reb-
els in Lhasa whose cause he is believed to be supporting,
according to intercepted messages. Should he succeed in
reaching'India or Bhutan, Peiping may be expected to exer
pressure on Nehru to reject the Dalai Lama's request. While
Nehru would be reluctant to jeopardize his relations with Pei-
ping by offering asylum, he probably would not refuse the Dalai
Lama permission to remain at least temporarily in Indial
20 Mar 59
DAILY BRIEF iv
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
(No Back-up Material)
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Turkey Supports Qasirwin struggie wan uAtt
j.Jurkish Foreign Minister Zorlu informed the American
ambassador on 16 March of Turkey's conviction that Iraqi
Prime Minister Qasim is not under Communist domination
and that he now wants help from the West to maintain Iraq's
independence. Zorlu added that Turkey could not remain dis-
interested if the UAR now or later makes a move against
IraP
Zorlu stated even more emphatically that
Turkey's reaction to any UAR move would be "strong and
immediate," leaving the implication that Turkey might even
take military action. Zorlu left the distinct impression that
the Turks would react to either an armed attack by the UAR
or an internal revolt with attributable UAR support]
an previous Middle East crises the Turks, seeing the po-
tential threat to their southern border, have threatened mil-
itary intervention. Since they are dependent on US logistical
support to sustain any extensive military operations, however,
they would probably not commit Turkish forces without prior
consultation. The Turks have a total of approximately 70,000
troops in the vicinity of the Syrian border, half of whom are
P'Pn r me rie subject to absorption into the army in wartime.
[The chief of the Turkish General Staff, General Rustu
Erdelhun, began a long-planned visit to Iran on 14 March. Mil-
itary discussions probably will seek to coordinate the Turkish)
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Now, "or
Land Iranian response to any future UAR moves against Iraq.
In contrast to the Turkish attitude, which has given Qasim the
benefit of every doubt and discounted indications that he is un-
der Communist domination, Iran has taken a hostile view of
the Qasim governmenq
Qor several months Turkey, Iran, and Israel have been
exchanging intelligence on the Middle East, and Turkey's strong
anti-UAR position probably reflects the Israeli conviction that
Nasir is the principal threat ii the Middle East''.7
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Nepali Congress Leads in National Elections
The moderate socialist Nepali Congress is maintaining
such a sizable lead in Nepal's first national elections--being
held between 18 February and 3 April--that it now seems as-
sured of winning a majority and forming the first government
under the new constitution.
Results for about half the parliament's 109 seats have been
announced to date. The Nepali Congress has won 38 of the 55
seats declared, or 69 percent. The other two major political
parties, the rightist Gurkha Parishad and former Prime Min-
ister K. I. Singh's United Democratic party, each appear to be
winning less than 15 percent of the seats. The Communist
party has won only one seat so far, and has little support in
areas where polling has yet to be completed.
The Nepali Congress is the country's oldest, largest; and
best-organized party. The country-wide support it is receiving
probably is a result of its reputation as leader of the rebellion
against the autocratic Rana regime in 1950-51. The party lead-
er, B. P. Koirala, is likely to be called on by King Mahendra to
form a government.
King Mahendra, who reportedly had been attempting to di-
vide political party strength evenly, may find a Nepali Congress
government--supported by a clear majority and a popular man-
date--harder to control than previous cabinets. Mahendra, how-
ever, retains ultimate power under the constitution promulgated
in February, and internal dissension in the Nepali Congress is
likely to make cabinet unity difficult.
The Indian Government apparently has backed the Nepali
Congress as offering the best prospect for the stable and pro-
gressive government New Delhi feels is essential to protect
its special interest in Nepal and to limit Chinese Communist
influence.
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*RS
III. THE WEST
Adenauer Willing to Extend De Facto Recognition to East
Germany
Ehancellor Adenauer informed the executive committee
of his party's Bundestag faction on 19 March that he is willing
to extend de facto recognition to the East German Government
providing that in negotiating this concession the status quo in
Berlin can be maintained and contacts between East and West
Germany can be increased. He based his policy change on
the need to gain time to settle broad East-West problems and
to avoid East-West negotiations on disengagement. Adenauer
said that this move would probably be interpreted as an aban-
donment of unification, but that the only way to achieve unity
within the framework of a general detente is to stabilize the
present situation. Adenauer called for and received firm par-
ty support for these vie w.s23
ap a probable move to force Adenauer's hand on the unifica-
tion question, the opposition Social Democratic party (SPD)
has presented a new proposal on unification and European se-
curity which combines features of the Rapacki Plan and some
elements of a German confederation. This proposal would
provide for three stages in reunification, beginning with a
planning committee of East and West Germans and'endirig with
free elections of an all-German government four Years late9
/he new moves by Adenauer and the SPD may both be
tactical maneuvers directed toward two state elections in
April, which will be the first since the beginning of the Ber-
lin crisis. Both parties are attempting to appeal to a grow-
ing demand in West Germany for some new appoachJnihe
problems of Berlin and German reunificatio9
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Anti-Communist Costa Rican Vies With Castro for Leadership
Of Drive Against Dictators
Fidel Castro appears to be meeting with competition for
leadership of the drive against Latin American dictatorships.
Former Costa Rican President Jose Figueres, just back from
long consultations with his close ally, Venezuelan President
Betancourt, has told the American ambassador that he intends
to head the revolutionary effort against the Somoza regime in
Nicaragua. He also appears deeply involved in plans to oust
Dominican dictator Trujillo.
Figueres and Betancourt, both long-time foes of Latin Amer-
ican dictators, share a deep concern over Castro's demagoguery
and his support for pro-Communist groups of Nicaraguan and
Dominican revolutionaries. During his current visit in Havana,
Figueres is expected to attempt to dissuade Castro from activ-
ities that would increase Communist capabilities in the area and
to seek Castro's support for his own revolutionary efforts.
Figueres' National Liberation party (PLN) has prepared a
public statement reaffirming its position in support of demo-
cratic movements dedicated to ousting dictators, but taking a
strong stand against movements that would include Communists.
Representatives of the PLN, Betancourt% Democratic Action
party, and the Peruvian APRA party are scheduled to meet on
6 April, probably in the Costa Rican capital, and are expected
to issue a similar statement, modified if necessary by the re-
sults of the Figueres-Castro talks.
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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