CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/05/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03160450
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: May 11, 1957

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CURRENT
" INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
11 May 1957
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
P-SECRET
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CONTENTS
. SHOWDOWN MAY BE NEAR IN INDONESIA
(page 3).
2. BOMBARDMENT OF QUEMOY ISLANDS BY CHINESE
COMMUNISTS (page 4).
0?) 3, KHRUSHCHEV CALLS FOR NEW CONTROL MEASURES
(page 6).
64. MILITARY JUNTA REPLACES PRESIDENT OF COLOMBIA
(page 7),
0.0. FAISAL MAY DEMAND NURI SAID'S RESIGNATION
(page 8).
6. NEW EGYPTIAN-INSPIRED DISSIDENCE IN PERSIAN GULF
AREA (page 9).
4. HONDURAN GOVERNMENT WEAKENED BY MOVES TO SETTLE
DISPUTE WITH NICARAGUA (page 10).
A. RETIRED ARGENTINE MILITARY OFFICERS PLANNING
REVOLT (page 11).
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1. SHOWDOWN MAY BE NEAR IN INDONESIA
Comment on:
Indonesia is closer to civil war than at
any time since the Communist uprising
at Madiun was crushed in 1948.
Sumatran dissidents are in-
censed over the recent arrest of their rep-
resentatives in Djakarta, efforts by the
army chief of staff to remove Lt. Col.
Samual7-the anti-government commander
in East Indonesia, and over Sukarno's
emergency decree imposing "guided
democracy!'
as a result/the Sumatrans will demand that Sukarno resign
or face the prospect of a military showdown. In this con-
nection, moves are reported already under way aimed at
eliminating pro-Djakarta military forces on Sumatra.
The sharpening of the lines between Djakarta
and the provinces is evident in the public reaction of anti-Sukarno
elements to the president's decree. A Moslem leader in Sumatra
has denounced Sukarno for "sowing the seeds of dictatorship,"
while Lt. Col. Samual claims that the country is faced with "total
ruin and collapse."
the ruling council of Central
Sumatra "is furious" over Djakarta's efforts to meddle in East
Indonesian affairs.
Meanwhile, Sukarno is
encountering increasing difficulty in dealing with Premier
Djuanda and the non-leftist elements in the cabinet. He is also
said to be "very upset, unhappy and unusually moody," and com-
plaining that he is "being forced into his actions against his
own will!'
�
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2. BOMBARDMENT OF QUEMOY ISLANDS BY
CHINESE COMMUNISTS
Chinese Communist artillery on 10 May
fired more than 600 rounds on the Quemoy
group--the heaviest shelling of these is-
lands so far this year. The Chinese Na-
tionalist news agency reports that the
Nationalist garrisons on the islands have
been alerted for a possible invasion.
The number of rounds fired on 10 May is
far from a record total. Some 6,000 rounds were fired on the
islands on 3 September 1954, nearly 3,000 rounds on 20 Jan-
uary 1956, and over 1,000 rounds on 28 April 1956. Most of
the artillery exchanges in the past year were initiated by the
Nationalists. No report is yet available to indicate which side
initiated the latest shelling.
The most favorable period for amphibious
operations is now at hand, but the Chinese Communists would
probably bring up more than the 89,000 troops believed to be
in the Amoy area before launching a full-scale attack against
the Quemoys, which are garrisoned by 84,000 Chinese Nation-
alists. However, Communist strength in the area is adequate
to assault one of the smaller islands in the Quemoys, such as
Erhtan or Tatan.
The Chinese Communist air force continues
to maintain a generally defensive posture in the Taiwan Strait
area. Prior to an amphibious assault on the Quemoys, the
Communists would probably bring their bombers and fighters
within closer range of the islands. Newly constructed airfields
opposite the offshore islands are serviceable but still unoccu-
pied.
The shelling of the Quemoys coincides with
sharp Communist propaganda reaction to the announcement that
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Matador missiles are to be based on Taiwan. In a broad-
cast on 10 May entitled "A Warning to the American Aggres-
sors," the Peiping radio charged that the United States is
converting Taiwan into an atomic base to carry out aggres-
sion. The Communists reiterated their routine declaration
of determination to "liberate" Taiwan but otherwise made no
threat of early military action.
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3. KHRUSHCHEV CALLS FOR NEW CONTROL MEASURES
Comment on:
� Soviet party boss Khrushchev, in a short
concluding speech to the Supreme Soviet
on 10 May, sounded a call for severe
legislative measures in order to ensure
the success of the forthcoming economic
reorganization.
IChrushchev said it was necessary to draft
measures calling for strict responsibility by the leaders of
enterprises and members of the economic councils. He added
that it may also be necessary to establish a system under which
financial penalties would be imposed on those guilty of causing
losses to the state. Those who undermine state discipline are
to be relieved of their posts and demoted.
The tone of these statements contrasts with
the encouragement of criticism during the discussion of the re-
organization proposals prior to and during the Supreme Soviet
session. With the structural pattern of reorganization agreed
upon, the regime apparently now is moving on to the next step--
the forging of tight control over the post-reorganization bureauc-
racy.
11 May 57
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4. MILITARY JUNTA REPLACES PRESIDENT
OF COLOMBIA
Comment on:
A five-man military junta replaced Pres-
ident Rojas on 10 May. The new govern-
ment will be pro-US and anti=Communist
in orientation.
The military forced Rojas' ouster after
a week of demonstrations and violence
provoked by his attempt to perpetuate
himself in office. Opposition political leaders, business
groups, and students participated in the movement against
Rojas, which paralyzed the economic activity of the nation.
The Catholic hierarchy also provided substantial support by
condemning his regime.
The situation may continue tense for sev-
eral days. Leaders of the opposition parties, which earlier
had proposed a joint presidential candidate to challenge Rojas'
plans, told the American embassy in Bogota on 9 May that
they would accept an interim junta only if it undertakes to re-
store constitutional government and civil liberties and calls
free elections by next spring. The embassy commented on
10 May that some groups among the throngs in Bogota cele-
brating Rojas' ouster are already demanding a civilian pres-
ident.
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5. FAISAL MAY DEMAND NURI SAID'S RESIGNATION
King Faisal of Iraq has sent word to
King Hussain of Jordan that he has de-
cided to request the resignation of
Prime Minister Nun i Said,
Crown Prince 4bd
al-Ilah is determined to secure Nun's resignation imme-
diately after King Saud's visit to Baghdad which begins on
11 May. Ex-prime minister Salih Jabr is being considered
as Nun's replacement.
Comment The crown prince, who is the power be-
hind the throne in Iraq, has been antag-
onistic to Nun i Said for many years and may feel that inter-
nal conditions now are stable enough to drop him.
Jabr, who broke with Nun i in 1950, is
considered to be favorably disposed toward the United States,
and accompanied the crown prince on the latter's visit to the
United States in February 1957. Jabr does not have Nun's
political power, and a cabinet led by him might be unstable.
11 May 57
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6. NEW EGYPTIAN-INSPIRED DISSIDENCE IN PERSIAN
GULF AREA
Comment on:
indica-
tions that Egypt is inspiring unrest in the
Persian Gulf area, particularly in east cen-
tral Oman, where three tribes are report-,
edly engaged in dissident activity. Egypt
has in recent months increased its anti-
British radio broadcasts to the Persian
Gulf, and has particularly intensified prop-
aganda directed against the government of Muscat and Oman.
Cairo was planning to train refugee Omani dissi-
en s in igypt to oppose the sultan of Muscat, who with Brit-
ish support had reasserted control over Oman in late 1955.
While the Saudis have given limited support to Omani dissi-
dents, the principal initiative now appears to come from Cairo.
the sultan has requested British assistance in drop-
ping leaflets in east central Oman, where 150 disaffected
tribesmen have defied the sultan's representative.
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7. HONDURAN GOVERNMENT WEAKENED BY MOVES TO
SETTLE DISPUTE WITH NICARAGUA
Comment on:
The Honduran military clique led by
General Rodriguez, a member of the
ruling junta, and Defense Minister
Lopez hopes to discredit moderate
leaders for accepting a cease-fire in
the dispute with Nicaragua. The junta
signed a troop withdrawal agreement
with the special OAS committee on
9 May only after determined opposi-
tion from Lopez, and after General
Rodriguez expressed his deep personal
reservations.
Honduran leaders basically are divided
on the issue of a return to constitutional government. Mod-
erates, led by Major Roberto Galvez who is also a member
of the junta, have promised a speedy return to constitutional
civilian government, a prospect not to the liking of the
Rodriguez-Lopez clique.
The OAS committee's troop withdrawal
plan went into effect on 10 May with the Nicaraguan signa-
ture of an agreement similar to the one signed by Honduras
on 9 May. The committee's military team is to remain in
the area to help implement the agreements, which call for
the withdrawal of troops of both countries to areas where con-
tact between them is impossible.
Nicaragua has
made every effort to respect its cease-fire agreement with the
OAS committee.
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8. RETIRED ARGENTINE MILITARY OFFICERS
PLANNING REVOLT
A group of senior officers dismissed in
November 1956 is planning to overthrow
the Argentine provisional government
prior to the 28 July election of a constit-
uent assembly, They
feel they were treated unfairly, that the government is mis-
handling the affairs of the country, and that Aramburuts sup-
porters are using crude tactics to keep him in power.
The revolutionary group reportedly intends,
if successful, to hold elections immediately, but has not yet
decided on a presidential candidate.
Comment Some 36 generals and other army com-
manders were dismissed in November
1956 as a result of their demand that Army Minister Ossorio
Arana resign. Some of these apparently belong to the revolu-
tionary group. Opposition to the government centers on the
apprehension that the regime may interfere with or postpone
general elections, now scheduled for 23 February 1958, de-
spite repeated official denials of such intentions.
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