CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/05/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03160448
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: May 3, 1957

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CURRENT
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CONTENTS
SOVIET FIGHTER ATTACK ON US RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT (page 3).
THE SITUATION IN JORDAN
(page 4).
011)3. NICARAGUA T
BY HONDURAS (page 6).
PT RECAPTURE OF TOWN SEIZED
MILITARY COUP MAY BE IMMINENT IN COLOMBIA
(page 8).
1,10 5 SYRIAN COMMUNIST THREATENS TO CUT PIPELINES
(page 9).
IRAN NOT PL
OIL BOYCOTT
RICT ENFORCEMENT OF ISRAELI
(page 10).
7. NASR REGIME ARRESTS WAFDISTS AND RETIRED OFFICERS
(page 11)0
tf)'8. THAI CULTURAL MISSION IN PEIPING (page 12).
49. PAKISTANI PRESIDENT SAYS HE MAY TAKE OVER ADMIN-
ISTRATION OF EAST PAKISTAN page 13).
64 10. SYRIAN BY-ELECTIONS
11. PERVUKHIN'S APPOINTMENT
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
(page 16).
(page 14).
3 May 57
(page 15).
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1. SOVIET FIGHTER ATTACK ON US RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT
A US reconnaissance aircraft over the
Sea of Japan was attacked by Soviet air-
craft while over international waters ap-
proximately 115 nautical miles from the
nearest Soviet territory. The attack took
place ;atT 1415 GMT 2 May while the air-
craft was on a mission between the Naval
Air Station at Iwakuni, Japan and Chitose
Air Force Base on Hokkaido. Fighter cover and air/sea res-
cue aircraft were dispatched to escort the returning reconnais-
sance plane, but were recalled when the attacked plane reported
it was undamaged and out of immediate danger. The Navy plane
broke off its planned mission and returned to base at 1845 GMT
without further incident.
CHINA
KOREA
USSR
VLADIVOSTOK_
HOKKAIDO
()ATTACK INITIATED
FLIGHT PLAN OF
US AIRCRAFT
SEA
OF
JAPAN
IWAKUNI NAS
CHITOSE
AFB
JAPAN
TOP SECRET
1010 Nit()
300
NAUTICAL MILES
2 MAY 1957
70502
3 May 57
Comment The loca-
tion given
for this attack is consid-
erably farther offshore
than the site of any pre-
vious similar incident.
It follows closely the So-
viet fighter reaction
stimulated in the south-
ern Kamchatka/northern
Kuriles area by an Air
Force RB-50 reconnais-
sance mission over the
Sea of Okhotsk on 30
April 1957. This report
is based upon preliminary
information and no explan-
ation for the apparent in-
crease in Soviet sensitivity
to these long-established
flights is in evidence at
the present time.
Current Intelligence Bulletin
717P-SE-efiE-T
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Nuse
2. THE SITUATION IN JORDAN
Comment on:
JordaWs Deputy Premier and Foreign
Minister,, Samir Rifai, who is actual
leader of the present cabinet, ex-
pressed confidence on 1 May that for
the moment Jordan was well under con-
trol. He foresaw no difficulty in "qui-
etly" following up recent arrests of
opposition figures with trials and con-
victions.
Mai considers that it will be neces-
sary to condition the public to accept the
new regime prior to the next regular
session of the legislature, when the cabinet must obtain a
vote of confidence. If it appears that a vote of confidence
cannot be obtained, Rifai stated that the legislature would
be dissolved, under the pretext that it was no longer rep-
resentative since the political parties had been dissolved.
Rifai added that martial law would be continued as long as
necessary; that new elections could be postponed indefi-
nitely; and that new election laws would be promulgated to
ensure the election of a congenial parliament. If the legis-
lature is dissolved, Rifai expects to be appointed prime
minister, and professes confidence that he could then serve
during the full four-year life of the next parliament. He
added that his principal objective would be to strengthen
relations between Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and to overcome
the obstacles to a federation of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and
Iraq.
Rifai's optimism must be balanced
against the fact that the majority of Jordan's population,
the Palestinian Arabs, may remain more responsive to
Nasr's brand of Arab nationalism than to that of�King Hussain.
3 May 57
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Iraqi chief of staff Rafiq informed the
American air attache on 30 April that Syria had conducted
aerial reconnaissance of Iraqi troop dispositions at H-3
pumping station, 50 miles inside Iraq, on two occasions in
four days. On 30 April, six MIG-type aircraft and two
Meteor jet fighters from Syria had made passes over the
area. Rafiq stated that he had placed all antiaircraft units
at H-3 on a 24-hour alert with orders to fire on any air-
craft approaching their positions
3 May 57
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3. NICARAGUA TO ATTEMPT,RECAPTURE OF TOWN SEIZED
BY HONDURANS
Comment on:
Nicaraguan president Somoza told Ambassa-
dor Whelan early on 2 May that his govern-
'ment will limit military hostilities for the
present to the recapture of the town of Moco-
ron from the Honduran force which seized
it on 1 May. Somoza hopes for action by the
Organization of American States (OAS) to
bring the fighting to an end. Preparing for
the possibility of wider action, however, he decreed a "general mobili-
zationi! early on 2 May and ordered 1,500 troops to positions along the
border, including a "sizable body" to the point where the Inter-American
Highway crosses the frontier. At this point, Nicaraguan forces would be
In position to move
E3 Area of de facto Nicaraguan rapidly against the
Bams}{ CA RIBB EA N SEA control since 1937 Honduran capital,
HONDURAS
Maximum boundary- Moc�
SA MOOR
an Salvador
MAY 1957
emixs 290
2447 5
3 May 57
Boundary by the arbitral
award of the King of Spain, INC
NICARAGUA
e toga
q,,de
Nicaragua
EL SALV.
COSTA OICA
O Area in dispute
,4R0CIAS 00000 a move already
El Area of new Department
created by Honduras threatened by
�Road
President Somoza.
Ambassador Whelan
fears that Somoza
may be forced by
"internal domestic
realities" to take
drastic action.
BRITNH
ONDURA5
ONDURA.,
Current Intelligence Bulletin
Mocoron is
within the terri-
tory which King
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wiarr' `114Pe
Alfonso XIII of Spain awarded Honduras by arbitration in 1906,
which the Nicaraguans claim is rightfully theirs and over which
they have exercised jurisdiction for 20 years.
After an emergency session on 2 May, the
Council of the OAS voted unanimously, with Honduras and Nic-
aragua abstaining, to send a five-man fact-finding committee to
the area immediately. The disputants were asked to desist from
any act which might aggravate the situation.
3 May 57
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4. MILITARY COUP MAY BE IMMINENT IN COLOMBIA
Comment on:
Colombian president Rojas may be re-
placed in a few days by a military junta,
according to widespread reports. His
re-election plans and methods of gov-
erning have reportedly caused serious discontent among
high officials of the armed forces, which have constituted
the only effective support of the regime. A new governing
body, which the American embassy believes to be under
consideration at the moment, would probably be pro-US in
orientation.
In April, Rojas packed the National Con-
stituent Assembly, which is the only legal basis of his re-
gime, with his own followers as a means of perpetuating his
dictatorship and ensuring his re-election. The two major
political parties then united to propose a joint presidential
candidate and demand free elections. Meanwhile, the power-
ful Catholic Church has apparently taken a unified stand
against Rojas' "re-electiong' Important business, banking,
and labor elements have also openly or indirectly swelled
the growing opposition. The assembly did not meet on 1 May
to vote the re-election of Rojas, as scheduled, which prob-
ably indicates that he is confronted by serious difficulties.
3 May 57
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5. SYRIAN COMMUNIST THREATENS TO CUT PIPELINES
Syrian Communist leader Khalid Bakh-
dash insisted at a recent meeting in
Damascus that the oil pipelines between
Iraq and the Mediterranean must be cut
again if the United States continues its
present actions in the Middle East
Comment
Last November the Syrian army blew
up the Iraqi pipeline and would have cut
the Tapline pipe running from Saudi Arabia if Nasr had not
intervened. Leftist Colonel Sarraj has boasted that he con-
trols the pipelines running through Syria.
3 May 57
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6, IRAN NOT PLANNING STRICT ENFORCEMENT OF
ISRAELI OIL BOYCOTT
Reference:
Iranian foreign minister Ardalan has
told the American embassy that Tehran
"does not contemplate rigorous enforce-
ment" of the ban on shipping Iranian oil
to Israel.
Ardalan said he had told Arab representa-
tives that Israel is an important potential market for Iranian
exports and that any boycott of Israel would entail a "sub-
stantial sacrifice" for Iran.
Although Tehran will continue to make
gestures of solidarity with the Arab states, it is not likely
to undertake any action which would reduce income from oil
sources.
3 May 57
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Name Neal
7. NASR REGIME ARRESTS WAFDISTS AND
RETIRED OFFICERS
Reference:
The Nasr regime has again moved to
counter the effectiveness of present or
potential sources of opposition. Many
Wafdists and recently retired army of-
ficers were arrested during the few days prior to 1 May,
The Wafdists are
reportedly undergoing interrogation at an army barracks
in Cairo.
3 May 57
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11114
Nfte
8. THAI CULTURAL MISSION IN PEIPING
A Thai cultural troupe, under the lead-
ership of a well-known pro-Communist
playwright, arrived in Peiping on 30 April,
according to a Chinese Communist radio an-
anouncement. The group will give perform-
ances in Peiping and other major Chinese
cities, and is reportedly exploring the pos-
sibility of going on to the USSR and Poland.
The American embassy notes that despite
specific official denials, there is a growing feeling in the Chi-
nese community in Bangkok that the government's China policy
is in the process of being revised in Peiping's favor.
The troupe left Bangkok quietly in two groups
last week end with passports validated for Hong Kong. The em-
bassy comments that the secrecy maintained in the preparations
for departure of this party of 48 indicates collusion by the Thai
government. In this connection, several Thai officials, all of
whom are closely identified with Thailand's ruling triumvirate,
have publicly indicated that they see no harm in the mission
since it is purely "cultural:'
Comment Although the official Thai policy is to re-
frain from recognizing Communist China
until it is seated in the United Nations, Bangkok seems anxious
to develop more normal relations with Peiping, Unofficial
Thai contacts with Communist China have suddenly increased
in the past few weeks. In addition to the cultural troupe, there
are a Thai basketball team, a labor delegation and possibly two
correspondents now in China.
3 May 57
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Aker 'Ste
9. PAKISTANI PRESIDENT SAYS HE MAY TAKE OVER
ADMINISTRATION OF EAST PAKISTAN
Comment on:
Pakistani president Mirza, informed
Ambassador. Hildreth on 30 April that
he was greatly disturbed by the disloyal
activities of certain East Pakistani of-
ficials, by the strength of pro-Communist provincial Awami
League leader Bhashani, and by Indian subversive activities
in the province. Mirza said he was considering taking over
the administration of the province.
Mirza probably is worried over the in-
ability of Prime Minister Suhrawardy to oust Bhashani from
his influential position in the East Pakistan. Awami League.
He is unlikely to act, however, before Suhrawardy returns
from his Far Eastern tour about 8 May. Suhrawardy will
probably try to convince Mirza that another recourse to
authoritarian rule would not be in Pakistan's best interests,
especially while the Kashmir case is pending in the UN.
Short of an actual breakdown of law and order, Mirza is
unlikely to act without Suhrawardy's concurrence.
3 May 57
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10. SYRIAN BY-ELECTIONS
Reference:
'As of 30 April, the Syrian parliamentary
by-elections scheduled for 4 May appeared
to be taking on increased significance, as
a test of leftist versus rightist strength.
in tnree out ox tour of the contests, the number of candidates has
been reduced to a single proleftist government candidate and a
prorightist opposition candidate. In the all-important Damascus
contest, the rightist candidate seems to be the more popular.
It has been reported that both sides are plan-
ning to "import" thousands of supporters into Damascus from
other Syrian cities and possibly from Lebanon.
The introduction of large numbers of parti-
sans could set the stage for violence. The tempers of both right-
ist and leftist groups reportedly have been raised considerably by
events in Jordan.
3 May 57
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11-41...7 .1 .1.1-...111-4.1 .11. A- -0-11-11
%we
11. PERVUICHIN'S APPOINTMENT
Comment on:
The appointment of Mikhail Pervukhin
as USSR Minister of Medium Machine
Building, the ministry currently operat-
ing the Soviet atomic energy program,
moves him from a top economic plan-
ning position as chairman of the short-range planning com-
mission to direction of a single economic ministry. Thus
he will apparently not receive one of the top administrative
posts in the governmental reorganization, to be formally
adopted at next week's Supreme Soviet session, in which the
short-range planning commission is to be abolished.
Pervukhin's appointment to a single min-
istry may reflect dissatisfaction with his conservative ap-
praisal of the economic potentialities of the USSR, as reflected
in the 1957 plan which reduced the scheduled rate of growth to
a level below that required to meet the 1960 Five Year Plan goals.
As a seasoned industrialist of long experi-
ence he will bring very considerable technical ability to the
direction of the Soviet atomic energy program.
Pervukhin retains his position on the party
presidium, as did Malenkov, Molotov, and Kaganovich when
they were transferred to head individual ministries. He will
probably continue, as they did, to exercise a role in general
policy formulation. Proceedings of the Supreme Soviet meet-
ing may clarify his present status in the hierarchy.
3 May 57
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1 N.J.& LI .1-11_4.11L.L.1
NINO
ANNEX
Watch Report 352, 2 May 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. Deliberate initiation of Arab-Israeli hostilities is unlikely
in the immediate future. Unsettled issues and tensions
continue to constitute possibilities for violence in the Mid-
dle East. Should there be major incidents in Jordan, such
as the death of the King or civil war, military intervention
by neighboring Arab states probably would occur and Israeli
intervention would be a possibility.
3 May 57
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