CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03157469
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 28, 1955

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3.3(h)(2)
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28 Tanuary 1955
Copy No. 7 9
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on Communist reaction to President's Formosa message
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Comment on unusual activities of Chinese Communist air force
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Laotian prince wants clear-cut Western guarantee to protect
Laos (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iran not ready to join Middle East defense organization (page 6).
5. Turkey assumes more aggressive role in effort to align Arab
states (page 6),
6. Comment on death sentences in Cairo Zionist spy case (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Italian Communists reported planning great struggle" against
Paris accords (page 8).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. Comment on Communist reaction to President's Formosa message:
Moscow
In its first extended commentary on
President Eisenhower message to
Congress on Formosa, Moscow main-
tained its previous cautious attitude on
this issue. Unlike Chou En-lai, who
had on 24 January rejected the princi-
ple of UN intervention, Soviet commen-
tators limited their criticism to questioning the sincerity of the
United States in proposing a cease-fire solution.
As in the past, Moscow made no mili-
tary commitment to assist Communist China in carrying out its
announced intention to liberate Formosa. It continued to stress
that this is an internal affair of the "great Chinese people," who
have the "sympathy and support of all peace-loving peoples." By
not categorically ruling ow- a cease-fire solution, Moscow left
Itself room to maneuver. (
Peiping
Peiping radio's first commentary on the
President's message hints at a possible
modification of Chou En-lai's earlier em-
phatic rejection of United Nations action to secure a cease-fire in
the China area.
The commentary interprets the presiden-
tial message as seeking authority for "intervention" on behalf of
the offshore islands as well as Formosa and the Pescadores and
for "aggression" against the China mainland. Peiping denoimces
the message as "a serious step in preparation for a new war," and
asserts that it "will greatly increase tension. . . and the new war
crisis."
Instead of explicitly rejecting the possi-
bility of UN action as an affront to Chinese sovereignty, however,
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as Chou did on 24 January just prior to issuance of the Presidentls
message? Peiping 's 27 January commentary follows the evasive line
set by -Moscow. The President is charged with "deceptive talk"
about a cease-fire and with expressing a "hypocritical welcome"
for UN action.
This commentary does not provide a
firm basis for believing that Peiping will revise its official posi-
tion--that "liberation" of all Nationalist-held territory is an
"Internal affair" in which no foreign interference of any kind will
be tolerated. It is conceivable, however, that Peiping has come
to perceive certain disadvantages in persisting in an aggressive
course at this time and certain possibilities for exploitation of UN
action.
FAR EAST
2. Comment on unusual activities of Chinese Communist air force:
An unknown number of Chinese MIG-15
jet fighters moved on 16 January from the Yalu area in Manchuria
to bases in North China near Peiping. It seems very likely they
will continue on to East China to increase air strength near the
Tachens.
in Shanghai
new antiaircraft positions were being
established near the city, and that there were rumors that "squad-
rons of MIG's are being rushed to the coastal defense area."
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Nome
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Laotian prince wants clear-cut Western guarantee to protect
11-617
Laos' most influential figure, Crown
Prince Savang, says the Communist-
supported Pathet Lao has entrenched
itself in northern Laos as a result of
the cease-fire forced on Laos by the Geneva agreement. He
went on to express to the American minister his view that the
Manila pact powers should mend this situation with an unambig-
uous assertion that no violation of Laos' territorial integrity will
be permitted.
Savang believes such a declaration would
mean the difference between Communist abandonment of the Pathet
Lao� which the royal government could then easily disperse, and
the progressive infiltration and ultimate loss of Laos. Neverthe-
less, he rejected the American minister's suggestion that the
Laotians deal more vigorously with the Pathet Lao.
Comment: The principal obstacles to
the elimination of the Pathet Lao are the government b limited
military capabilities and the pressure exerted on the government
by Indian truce officials to come to terms with the Pathet Lao.
Savang 's willingness to continue negotia-
tions with the Pathet Lao reveals that even a most stalward anti-
Communist sees no immediate alternative to such a course.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iran not ready to join Middle East defense organization:
Iran recog-
nizes such a defense system as indispensable and knows that par-
ticipation some day will be in its interest. However, Iran is
"anxious above all not to do anything which might jeopardize the
Iranian-Soviet agreement."
Comment: An Iranian-Soviet agreement
settling long-standing bor-der�.� anTrinancial disputes was initialed
in December and is awaiting ratification. So far as is known, Iran
did not make any political commitments in return for the agreement.
The Shah has used Iran's position as a
connecting link between Turkey and Pakistan as an argument for
greatly increased American aid. Although Iran's pro-Western
orientation is clear, its spokesmen in recent months have re-
peatedly indicated that they are not yet ready for a formal align-
ment.
5. Turkey assumes more aggressive role in effort to align Arab
states:
Turkish prime minister Menderes has
told Ambassador Warren that he is in
contact with the Lebanese, Syrian,
Jordanian, and Libyan governments and
has reason to believe that they will support the proposed Turkish-
Iraqi pact.
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Menderes said that the critical stage of
the Cairo conference of Arab leaders has passed and that it is
time to seize the initiative from the Egyptians in influencing the
other Arab states. He believes that Egypt has failed to subvert�
Iraqi public opinion and cause the overthrow of Nun i Said and has
therefore turned its propaganda attack on Turkey. He said Ankara
will warn Cairo against Egyptian propaganda attacks on Turkey's
Western orientation.
Comment: Menderes' activity may signal
the opening of a new and possibly decisive stage in current efforts
to gain Arab support for Western defense in the Middle East.
6. Comment on death sentences in Cairo Zionist spy case:
Egypt's decision to sentence to death two
of the 11 Zionists tried on charges of es-
pionage can be expected to precipitate a
new crisis with Israel, which has dis-
played great concern over the trial.
Despite Israel's warning to the French
and Turkish ambassadors that "armed conflict" with Egypt might
result if any of the accused were executed, this is not anticipated.
Frontier reprisals and a strong diplomatic and propaganda campaign
against Egypt, however, are likely if the condemned are executed.
The commutation of the Zionists'
death sentences might, however, invite internal repercussions,
since the regime executed six members of the Moslem Brotherhood
in early December.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Italian Communists reported planning "great struggle" against
Paris accords:
Italian foreign minister Martino told the
American charg�n Rome on 25 January that it is apparent from
the first sessions of the Senate Special Commission on the Paris
accords that the Communists intend to place every obstacle pos-
sible in the way of ratification. He added, however, that there
is still a good prospect for a completion of the ratification process
by the end of February or early March.
Comment: The Paris accords were ap-
proved by the Chamber of Deputies in December. The Commu-
nists put up only feeble opposition in the lower house, because,
according to various reports, they were convinced the accords
would pass and therefore decided to save their major effort for an
attempt to influence the Senate.
A strike called by the Communists on this
issue would probably be poorly supported in view of the average
Italian worker's lack of enthusiasm for agitation on political issues.
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