CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/12/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03153735
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: December 7, 1957

CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
for Release: 2019/12/10
7 December 1957
Copy No. 13'
DOCUMENT NO.
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LATE:
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WO 41'1
REVIEWER
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP,ET
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CONTENTS
1. PARIS URGES INDEPENDENT EUROPEAN NUCLEAR
WEAPONS CAPABILITY (page 3).
2. DANISH FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIALS IMPRESSED
BY KENNAWS "NEUTRAL BELT" CONCEPT
(page 4).
3. RENEWED FRENCH LABOI AGITATTONTHREATENS
GAILLARD GOVERNMENT (page 5)0
4. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
5, tit b.f. I UA IUN IN 1FNI
(page 7).
(page 6).
6. COMMUNIST TERRORISM EXPECTED IN SOUTH
VIETNAM ON 19 DECEMBER (page 8).
7. GUIDED MISSILES POSSIBLY INSTALLED ON TWO
SOVIET SUBMARINES (page 9).
8. POLISH-WEST GERMAN RELATIONS
9, RESIGNATION OF PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT
(page 10).
INCREASINGLY LIKELY (page 11).
11-1(1 10. SUSLOV CRITICIZES JAPANESE COMMUNISTS FOR
FAILURE TO DEVELOP MASS INFLUENCE
(page 12).
7 Dec 57
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1. PARIS URGES INDEPENDENT EUROPEAN NUCLEAR
WEAPONS CAPABILITY
Comment on:
France now favors a European nuclear
weapons program--independent of the
United States and if necessary of Brit-
ain--instead of the "NATO stockpile"
of nuclear weapons it had originally
proposed. Recent French overtures
to West Germany, Italy, and the Bene-
lux countries have called for closer
integration within the framework of the
Atlantic pact of their military effort,
particularly in the development and
production of modern weapons. The
decision to press such proposals prob-
ably resulted from French indignation
over the Anglo-American arms delivery
to Tunisia.
Paris is also laying the groundwork for
possible bilateral nuclear development programs, particular-
ly with West Germany, which seems interested in a joint ef-
fort. The French have little grounds for hope that Premier
Gaillard's recent request for a French-British accord on nu-
clear weapons production will be favorably received in Lon-
don.
Whether or not these efforts pay off,
France intends to push its own national nuclear weapons
program.
7 Dec 57
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2. DANISH FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIALS IMPRESSED
BY KENNAN'S "NEUTRAL BELT" CONCEPT
Comment on:
George
:Kennan's recent speech advocating a
European "neutral belt" is receiving
considerable attention from senior officials.
that this concept fitted ideally the situation
of the smaller nations such as the Scandinavian countries
and provided them with "heaven-sent answers" to the
question of accepting rockets and nuclear weapons
:Both the Danish and Norwegian govern-
ments face considerable public and parliamentary antipathy
toward the use of nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Hansen
has already indicated that Denmark would not accept sta-
tioning of these weapons on Danish territory. The Gerhard-
sen government in Norway is trying to avoid any immediate
decision on the issue.
While no change in Denmark's NATO
position is imminent, such remarks indicate that high-
level officials might be prepared to re-examine Denmark's
position in Western defense plans in the light of future de-
velopments.
7 Dec 57
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3. RENEWED FRENCH LABOR AGITATION THREATENS
GAILLARD GOVERNMENT
Comment on:
Worker dissatisfaction over wage-
price problems has precipitated a
split in the Gaillard cabinet, and an
increasing number of French union
leaders are predicting serious labor difficulties in the
coming months. If the government permits announced
price rises to stand, labor unrest may give the Commu-
nist-led General Labor Confederation a chance to re-
gain the initiative and reassert its influence among wage
earners.
The government had been successfully
pursuing a policy of granting modest wage increases to
various segments of the nationalized industries. This
policy may now break down, however, as the 4 December
price rises, particularly on food items, appear to labor
to nullify its modest wage gains. The Socialist Workers
Confederation has decided to abandon its moderate wage
policy and to join the Communist- and Catholic-led unions
in pressing for increases.
The wage-price squabble has developed
the strongest threat to date for the tenuous Gaillard coali-
tion. The Socialists are threatening to withdraw from the
government unless Premier Gaillard agrees to lower some
of the controlled price increases and to boost civil servant
wages substantially. If Gaillard gives in, he can adhere
to the projected anti-inflationary program only by further
tax increases, which the conservative ministers in the
cabinet insist they will not accept.
7 Dec 57
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4. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
Comment on:
-The anti-Dutch campaign in Indonesia
is continuing unabated, and the ex-
tremist elements in the government now
are in command. The West Irian Lib-
eration Committee under Information
Minister Sudibjo, rather than the cabi-
net, is directing the drive. The next
step will probably be a break in dip-
lomatic relations.
Although President Sukarno has made
no public statement since his brief
radio address of 1 December following
the attempt on his life, there is no reason to believe that
any of the actions taken to date do not have his full approval.
Moderate elements, including Premier Djuanda, have been
bypassed and their calls for moderation have been inef-
fectual.
The seizure of Dutch enterprises by
affiliates of SOBSI, the Communist-led labor federation,
apparently had been planned in advance by SOBSI, elements
of the military, and the semiofficial and Communist-per-
meated youth-military cooperative committee. The gov-
ernment has taken over the management of some of these
enterprises, and Sudibjo has stated that the government
will discuss compensation for seized Dutch property only
after the West Irian issue is settled.
It is increasingly questionable whether
the government will be able to maintain control of the forces
it has unleashed. Worsening economic conditions, especial-
ly spiraling rice prices, could provoke attacks against the
Dutch or other Western nationals and possibly fighting among
the Indonesians themselves in the already overcharged emo-
tional atmosphere.
7 Dec 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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5. THE SITUATION IN IFNI
Comment on:
Spain is meeting with considerable dif-
ficulty in suppressing Moroccan Army
of Liberation irregulars who have been
fighting Spanish troops in the Ifni en-
clave since 23 November. Claims
tnat only tne capita,' remains in bpanisn
hands and that "total victory" for the
guerrillas is near are probably exag-
gerated. Evidence of Spain's growing
concern, however, is found in the more
restrained nature of recent Spanish army
-/communiqu�as well as in Madrid's
acknowledgment this week that fighting
has also occurred in Spanish Sahara, a much larger colony
to the south of Ifni.
Latest Spanish estimates place the
strength. of Army of Liberation elements in the Ifni area at
4;00,0 men--as contrasted with an original estimate of
1,200 guerrillas--
ladditional large reinforcements for the insurgents
were approaching Spain's West African territories from
northern Morocco and Algeria. Spain is apparently continu-
ing its own military build-up and total Spanish strength in
the area may now be greater than the approximately 8,000
men Madrid authorities acknowledged late last month.
Madrid, after declining an early French
offer to lend military aircraft, asked Paris last week to
provide both air support and three to six LCT-type landing
craft. There is at present no conclusive evidence of active
French involvement in the fighting, but a virtual recommenda-
tion to this effect by the French ambassador in Madrid and
the earlier French offer strongly suggest that Paris may be
prepared to participate despite the effect this would have on
its already difficult relations with Morocco.
7 Dec 57
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6. COMMUNIST TERRORISM EXPECTED IN SOUTH
VIETNAM ON 19 DECEMBER
Reference:
Viet Minh terrorism may break out
in South Vietnam on 19 December--
anniversary of the 1946 uprising in
Hanoi against the French--
The
possibility of attacks on American personnel, either in
Saigon or in the provinces, is not excluded.
There are also reports that the Viet
Minh underground is planning a terrorist campaign
against indigenous employees of American missions in
South Vietnam.
7 Dec 57
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7. GUIDED MISSILES POSSIBLY INSTALLED ON
TWO SOVIET SUBMARINES
Comment on:
the
USSR may have installed a new
weapons system, possibly for
guided cruise-type missiles, on at least two W-class
long-range submarines now stationed in the Far East.
The Soviet Naval Artillery Direc-
torate, which is responsible for the trials and acceptance
of naval ordnance, has evinced a considerable interest
in work of an unspecified nature being performed on the
two submarines. Conventional deck guns were removed
from W-class submarines several years ago.
It is probable that the installation
of a guided cruise-type missile system on W-class sub-
marines, which have a radius of 4,700 nautical miles,
would involve a topside stowage cylinder and launching
ramp. The USSR is expected eventually to develop larger
submarines capable of carrying ballistic guided missiles
within the pressure hull. Interior installation c would be
difficult to identify and would give the submarine a sub-
surface launching capability as well as improved maneu-
verability and operating radius.
Although no submarine equipped
with a guided missile system has been firmly identified,
submarines with external installations possibly suitable
for carrying and launching guided cruise-type missiles
have been reported in three of the foul- major fleet areas.
7 Dec 57
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8. POLISH-WEST GERMAN RELATIONS
Comment on:
Poland, in its current trade talks with
/West Germany, is only feigning an in-
terest in Bonn's suggestion that trade
missions with consular powers be ex-
- changed,
Polish Foreign Minister
Rapacki has indicated that Poland has
no intention of agreeing to anything
less than the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Warsaw would consider establishment
of full-scale diplomatic relations with the Federal Republic
de facto recognition of the Oder-Neisse line. The West
Germans, however, are probably seeking a formula that
would satisfy the Poles without invalidating the Potsdam
provision for future settlement of Germany's boundary
and certainly 'would refuse any formula which implicitly
recognizes the permanence of the Oder-Neisse line.. The
existing trade agreement has been extended-tocover -the
first three months of, 1958,, to Permit -further' negotiation.
7 Dec 57
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9. RESIGNATION OF PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT
Me RE ASTNCIT WETV I .V
Comment on:
Pakistan's seven-week-old government
coalition remains deeply divided, and
there is an increasing likelihood that a
test vote next week in the National As-
sembly will cause the government to resign. Former
Prime Minister Suhrawardy's chances of returning to pow-
er seem to be improving.
Despite the apparent agreement on 28
November between President Mirza's Republican party and
Prime Minister Chundrigar's Moslem League to support a
Moslem League bill restoring separate electorates, a sub-
stantial segment of Republican leaders is reasserting its
opposition to the legislation. The Republican executive
will meet on 9 December to decide the party's stand. It
now appears doubtful that enough members will support
the bill when the National Assembly reconvenes for a vote
on 11 December. Chundrigar has threatened to resign if
the Republicans do not honor their commitment to him.
Several reports indicate that, in the in-
terests of stable government, Pakistan's army leadership
favors a revival of the Republican - Awami League coali-
tion under Suhrawardy. Pressure from this quarter on
Mirza, whose position is dependent on army backing, could
cause the President to withdraw his support of Chundrigar's
government and come to terms with Suhrawardy.
7 Dec 57
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10. SUSLOV CRITICIZES JAPANESE COMMUNISTS FOR
FAILURE TO DEVELOP MASS INFLUENCE
Comment on:
Soviet Party Secretary Suslov has
criticized the Japanese Communist
party for failure to increase its mem-
bership and for faulty implementation
of its tactics, which delayed peace-
ful expansion of Communist influence in the Japanese
labor movement. According to Mainichi, a Tokyo daily,
the criticism was transmitted in an 18 November letter
from Yoshio Shiga, head of the Japanese delegation to
the Moscow 40th anniversary celebrations.
Moscow apparently feels that the Japa-
nese Communists' performance has not measured up to
the terms of the established world Communist tactical line,
reaffirmed in the Moscow Communist declaration of 21 No-
vember, which calls for Communist parties to rally all
classes and all forces, including socialists and neutralists,
for a struggle to defeat American policies and establish
Communist regimes in countries outside the bloc.
Suslov reportedly said that the party's
task, now that ultra-left tactics have been put aside, is
to win as many members and sympathizers as possible
through "practical struggles,' i. e. , primarily political
forms of action rather than violence, using its influence
more discreetly and effectively in non-Communist organiza-
tions.
The Japanese Communist party is
plagued by factional struggles between members who fa-
vor Moscow's policy and those who advocate a national
party. A new "soft" line platform corresponding with
20th party congress directives is scheduled for adoption
at the long-delayed national convention which is antici-
pated to convene in February 1958.
7 Dec 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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