CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/10/08

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03153729
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RIPPUB
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U
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10
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December 12, 2019
Document Release Date: 
December 20, 2019
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Publication Date: 
October 8, 1957
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15757337].pdf343.29 KB
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rjr _Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 l.0.1 L.1 .1� N.I N. .L:d J. 8 October 1957 Copy No. 38 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN /72 -%-% DOCUMENT NO. 1 NO CHANGE iN CLASS. X C CA FE: 42ED-1-00 AUTH: " REVEWER: OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Tor SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 _Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 Polk 41111i Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 VgisV CONTENTS 0-12,- 1. E SITUATION IN WARSAW OLL 2. CHINESE COMMUNISTS SATELLITE LAUNCHING (page 3). (page 4). it.�0 3. LIBYA'S PRO-WESTERN ORTENTATION STRAINED BY FRENCH ATTACKS (page 5). (94, 4. REACTION IN ALGE FEAT OF PROPOSED, ALGERIAN STATUTE (page 6). 5. RIGHTISTS MAY ATTEMPT PRE-ELECTION COUP IN GUATEMALA (page 7). 6. BURMA CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL SOVIET AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE (page 8). 7. BREACH WIDENING BETWEEN INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS AND DJAKARTA (page 9). 8 Ott 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 ,1--/-L II A AL JL.Z �110 1. THE SITUATION IN WARSAW Reference: The Polish regime has succeeded in maintaining control of the situa- tion in Warsaw and preventing any spread of the disturbances while conceding nothing to the students' demands. The students have not been involved in rioting since 4 Oc- tober, and a student statement cir- culated on 6 October denied that they had intended to resort to violence. Cardinal Wyszynski's annual academic year sermon on Sunday advocating moderation has also helped to restore some degree of patience. The students failed to gain the support of factory workers, notably at the Zeran automobile works. Townspeople on the morning of 7 October were reportedly expressing their disgust with the wildcat disturbances. There has been little of the panic buying which normally accompanies public expectations of serious disturbances. Neither the Polish nor Soviet military forces have apparently been alerted. Polish military lead- ers discussing the situation with US officials at a week-end diplomatic party without exception expressed their lack of concern, pointing out their confidence in the militia's� ability to handle the situation and their feeling that the "students had now had their fun." The students, however, still demand the reopening of Po Prostu, the release of those arrested, and the punishment of officials responsible for calling in the mi- litia. If the regime fails to meet any of these demands, or resorts to harsh punishment and press censorship during the week, tempers may again be inflamed and further student demonstrations could result. Despite surface calm, the re- gime has refused to permit the Polytechnical University to open since 4 October. 8 Oct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 'L_4F.L VJL .11..11.-JELL ILZILJLI NNW .%410i 2. CHINESE COMMUNIST REACTION TO SATELLITE LAUNCHING Comment on: Peiping's initial reaction to the success- ful launching of the Soviet satellite hails the achievement as "proof" of the "in- comparable superiority" of the socialist system. This may be the beginning of a major Chinese propaganda campaign. Unlike Soviet commentary, which thus far has emphasized the scientific achievements and what the USSR considers to be the political implications of the launching, the Chinese Communists were quick to seize on the military sig- nificance of the satellite by linking it to Soviet development of the ICBM. Declaring that the United States can no longer lay claim to being th3 most powerful nation on earth, an edi- torial of 6 October in an authoritative newspaper stated that Soviet missile successes have shattered all American "hopes for world hegemony." Peiping first began asserting last May that the United States "lagged behind" the USSR in missile development, and has given wide publicity to reported "failures" in US missile testing in recent months. The Chinese have emphasized previously that Soviet successes should induce the West to agree to Soviet conditions for a disarmament agreement, 8 Oct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 -C.49Nr1191AT-T-F Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 003153729 Approved for Rele�a;e:-2-0-1T/U/1 0 C03153729 Nord 3. LIBYA'S PRO-WESTERN ORIENTATION STRAINED BY FRENCH ATTACKS Comment on: The generally pro-Western Libyan gov- ernment is likely to come under increas- ing pressure from elements which are us- ing the Franco-Libyan frontier incident of last week to arouse opinion against the West in general and France in particular. Speakers participating in an anti-Western demonstration in Bengazi on 6 October have demanded abrogation of the Franco- Libyan treaty of friendship and a reconsideration of base agreements and treaties with the United States and Great Britain. The demon- stration�.followed the Libyan government's announcement of the details of a French attack on 3 October directed against a Libyan village near the Algerian border. The government has denounced the French "aggression" and requested assistance from the Brit- ish under the Anglo-Libyan treaty of 1953. Before the incident, Libyan government officials, who had already indicated they hoped to renegotiate the American-Libyan base agreement, had asked for a quick shipment of American military supplies. In Paris, the American embassy has been in- formed that the French took action only after being attacked by "unidentified elements" near the "ill-defined" border. The French government reportedly believes that such incidents may continue to occur unless a better demarcation is made. The American embassy in London reports that the Foreign Office is "much concerned" and considers the French attack to have been even if French allegations that Algerian rebels are operating from that area are true. The British reportedly hope to avoid the necessity of complying with the Libyan request for assistance by persuading the French to with- draw any forces which may still be in Libyan territory. 8,0ct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 110 '%arl 4. REACTION IN ALGERIA TO DEFEAT OF PROPOSED ALGERIAN STATUTE Comment on: French eitorts to promote pacifica- tion and reconciliation in Algeria appear to have been set back serious- ly as a result of the National Assem- . bly's defeat last week of the proposed basic law for Algeria. The assembly's action has reportedly driven nationalist Mohamed Belounis, a field commander of the Algerian National Movement with whom the French had been negotiating an "alliance" since July, into active opposition again. Belounis had apparently endorsed an early version of the statute in re- turn for assurance that he would receive an important posi- tion in the new Algerian regime. He is now said to have broken with the French and withdrawn, in French trucks and with 250 French-equipped followers, to the hills of north central Algeria. The National Liberation Front (FLN), the dominant nationalist organization, reportedly is highly gratified by the adverse vote in Paris, believing it has greatly improved the FLINI's position in the forthcoming UN debate on Algeria. There is no indication as yet, however, that the FLN intends to exploit the fall of the Bourges- Maunoury government by stepping up terrorism in Algeria as it did at the time of the last government crisis in Paris. European extremist groups in Algeria, which opposed the reforms as an inadmissible first step toward eventual "abandonment," have also expressed satis- faction over the turn of events in Paris. Veterans' and stu- dents' organizations see the government crisis as providing an opportunity for "determined men" to assume leadership of a "movement of national revival." 8 Oct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 NW' 'troo. 5. RIGHTISTS MAY ATTEMPT PRE-ELECTION COUP IN GUATEMALA Continuation of the middle-of-the-road policies established by the late presi- dent Castillo Armas in Guatemala is threatened by plotting-on both the right and the left aimed at preventing or annulling the 20 October election of a full-term successor to Castillo. The adminis- tration presidential candidate, pro-American former Supreme Cburt president Miguel Ortiz Passarelli, appears assured of victory if the elections are held as scheduled. Extreme rightists, who have been working closely with agents of Generalissimo Trujillo of the Dominican Republic, and certain army officers who resent the dominant position of the powerful defense ministe , Col. Juan F. Oliva, have been reported to be planning to seize the government shortly before election cay. Leftists, who have been denied participation in the election by the recent proscription of the Communist-in- filtrated Revolutionary party, are also plotting revolution. Prom- inent exiles who have reportedly returned clandestinely to Guate- mala and other leftists are believed seeking support for a revolt among army and police officers. Although the leftists and pro- Communists are weak and poorly organized, they are capable of causing disturbances among politically volatile students. Any leftist-inspired disorders might provide a pretext for a rightist coup. 8 Oct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 SF.C1? FT Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 003153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 teri ligarf 6. BURMA CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL SOVIET SISTANCE The Burmese government reportedly is considering a Soviet offer of a loan of just under $10, 000, 000 to permit the acceleration of high-priority agri- cu ura projects. The loan, which would enable Burma to hire 43 additional Soviet technicians and enlarge the existing joint agricultural program, would expand the most successful phase of the USSR's economic aid activity in Burma to date. The Burmese government wants the American economic aid mission to approve financing of a large-scale land reclamation project already in progress in the Irrawaddy Delta under the recent $25, 000, 000 loan from the United States. The Russians allegedly are anxious to step in with the required funds for this project because of its propaganda potential. of great significance and potentiality for expanding rice production and promoting so- cial welfare. While rice earns 70 percent of Burma's foreign exchange, rice exports are still only about two thirds of pre- war leVels. Meanwhile, in other spheres of the So- viet assistance program, 50 engineers and construction ex- perts are reportedly now in Rangoon to begin on schedule work on the technological institute and other buildings. In addition, 12 Soviet planning experts now are in Rangoon fol- lowing up a previous proposal for the construction of cheap concrete housing units. 8 Oct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 - ONFIHE-N-TfA -L Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 003153729 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729 1_41i-fiN.11! IILIJIaL I' 112114 7. BREACH WIDENING BETWEEN INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS AND DJAKARTA Reference: inaeonesiars dissident provincial corn- manders not only are continuing to perfect their plans for united opposi- tion to the central government, but reported to be in general agreement that President Sukarno "will have to go." They are also increasingly disillusioned with the idea of relying heavily on Hatta's leadership for their cause, because of his "clumsy" performance at last month's round-table conference in Djakarta. The planning of the disaffected commanders calls for CoL Simbolon to regain control of North Sumatra and assume command of the whole island. Former chief of staff Col. Lubis is to direct activities in Java, and Lt. CoL Sumual is to establish his command over all of East Indonesia. The provincial dissidents continue to count heavily on economic pressure to achieve their aims, and one source estimates that Djakarta could be brought to terms within four to six months by such pressure. They are aware, however, the central government will probably retaliate with economic countermeasures such as a tightened blockade. They also know that Djakarta is building up an underground movement which can, on short notice, move against the local authorities. In the Medan area of North Sumatra, the Com- munist-led "village defense corps" has been reported fighting police and army units. This would seem to be a reaction to the recent arrest of Lt. Col. Macmour, a pro-Communist re imental commander who provided the corps with its arms. 8 Oct 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 -CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153729