CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/09/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03153718
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: September 20, 1957

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
20 September 1957
Copy No. 136
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTENTS
1. FRENCH CABINET STILL SPLIT OVER ALGERIAN STATUTE
(page 3).
2. MOVEMENT OF ARMED KURDS FROM THE SOVIET UNION
TO SYRIA REPORTED (page 4).
3. AFGHANISTAN LIKELY TO CUT FIVE-YEAR PLAN SHARPLY
(page 5).
&ye- 4. PEIPING EDITORIAL SETS FORTH LINE ON PURGES
(page 6).
OZ--- 5. MANAHAN REPORTEDLY MAKING IMPRESSIVE GAINS AS
PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE page 7
)1,0 6. RELEASE OF WESTERN ARMS MAY TEMPORARILY RELIEVE
TUNISIAN CRISIS (page 8).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
(page 9).
20 Sept 57
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1. FRENCH CABINET STILL SPLIT OVER
ALGERIAN STATUTE
Comment on:
ihe French government's call for a
0 September round-table discussion
on the proposed Algerian statute with
the leaders of all parties except the
Communists and the Poujadists is an admission of its fail-
ure to convince the rightists that the statute will not lead to
Algerian independence. The meeting was called as a last-
ditch effort to keep key ministers from resigning immediately.
The premier will be backed by President
Coty in an effort to impress on the parliamentary leaders the
importance of national unity on the issue, particularly in view
of imminent UN General Assembly consideration of Algeria.
If Coty asserts more vigorous leadership on this problem
than he has in the past, he may be able to influence some of
the backbench Independents and Peasants who are reportedly
ready to overthrow Bourges-Maunoury.
Socialist and Popular Republican opposition
to any changes in the draft statute has hardened, and the pre-
mier will have difficulty in gaining left-center acceptance of any
further concessions he may make to the proponents of rigid
French control over Algeria.
Meanwhile, the government must dodge the
threat of being overthrown on its economic program, now under
discussion in the special assembly session.
20 Sept 57
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2. MOVEMENT OF ARMED KURDS FROM THE SOVIET
UNION TO SYRIA REPORTED
Comment on:
"2,000" Kurdish soldiers from the Soviet
Union had passed through the Turkish
Straits en route to Latakia. Syria.
Mullah Mustafa Barzani, leader of the
Barzani Kurdish tribe of Iraq, has been in the Soviet Union
since 1947. Barzani had helped organize a short-lived Kurd-
ish republic in Iran in 1945 with the aid of 3,000 Kurds from
Iraq but fled to the USSR with some of his followers when the
Soviet-sponsored scheme collapsed.
Iran has been uneasy over the Barzani
Kurds ever since this attempt. There have been many ru-
mors since 1947 concerning the size and intentions of Mullah
Mustafa% force, which is assumed to be located in the USSR
near the Iranian border. It is believed that they have con-
tinued to maintain contact with Iranian Kurds.
If this report has some basis in fact, it
would indicate that the USSR may intend to use the Barzani
Kurds to increase tensions in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. There
are estimated to be a total of 3,000,000 Kurds in these coun-
tries, largely in the area between the Euphrates River and
the Zagros Mountains,
20 Sept 57
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3, AFGHANISTAN LIKELY TO CUT FIVE-YEAR
PLAN SHARPLY
The plan is too large in scope
for the internal resources and trained personnel available.
Aziz fears that uncontrolled inflation will result if the gov-
ernment does not cut the plan and restrict credit in the near
future.
Aziz believes he has convinced the cab-
inet of the necessity of a drastic cut in the plan, but says
that Prime Minister Daud is angry at the thought of having
to eliminate many projects from the plan.
Comment While Daud will be reluctant to sacrifice
the grandiose plans which he formulated,
he probably will be forced eventually to accept Aziz's recom-
mendations unless he is willing to risk enacting new taxes to
finance the plan. Merchants blocked Daud's last attempt to
impose new taxes in 1956, and he is unlikely to try such a
measure again at this time.
While there is unlikely to be uncontrolled
inflation in the near future, the cost of living in Kabul rose by
�22 percent between mid-February and mid-April after increas-
ing by about 30 percent in the previous 14 months. This has
caused considerable popular discontent.
20 Sept 57
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4. PEIPING EDITORIAL SETS FORTH LINE ON PURGES
Comment on:
A long editorial printed in the authorita-
tive People's Daily on 18 September lays
the groundwork for elimination of the re-
gime's ideological opponents in what the
Chinese Communists regard as the climac-
tic life-and-death battle of the "socialist revolution."
According to Peiping's analysis of the present
situation,. the "rightists," said to be few in number, have been
competing for the allegiance of the many "middle of the roaders"
in China who are not hostile to the regime but still retain sym-
pathy for capitalism. The Communists declare that the only way
to win the current struggle is to "crush" their enemies and to
"educate" -wavering elements.
The Communists apparently do not plan
another mass purge which would claim thousands of victims.
The editorial still holds out the hope of redemption for rightists
who are "earnest in their desire to repent." It suggests, however,
that some pf the hundreds already labeled as rightists will be
executed as examples. Their actions are said to show that dif-
ferences between the rightists and the people are "irreconcilable,
life-and-death contradictions between the enemy and us."
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5. MANAHAN REPORTEDLY MAKING IMPRESSIVE GAINS
AS PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
The US embassy in Manila reports that
the popularity of Manuel Manahan, pres-
idential candidate of the newly formed
Progressive party of the Philippines, is
growing in the major cities of Manila and Cebu as well as in
rural areas. The embassy believes, however, that President
Garcia, with the strong Nacionalista party organization, heavy
financial resources, and the powers of incumbency, still holds
the advantage among the various candidates.
Comment There are indications that Manahan may
be running at least as well as Liberal
party candidate Jose Yulo and that President Garcia's cam-
paign is handicapped by his unpopular running mate, Jose
Laurel, Jr. The considerable mass enthusiasm now being
shown for Manahan and his followers is due to their close iden-
tification with the late president Magsaysay. However, the
Progressives must overcome the traditional influence exer-
cised over Filipino voters by local officials, most of whoM
are Nacionali6ta a,ppOintees. '
20 Sept 57
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-CONFIDENTIAL
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6. RELEASE OF WESTERN ARMS MAY TEMPORARILY
RELIEVE TUNISIAN CRISIS
An Italian Foreign Ministry official has
confirmed that France on 17 September
withdrew its objections to the shipment
by Italy of a limited quantity of arms to
Tunisia. Paris, however, asked that
Rome impose certain conditions, pre-
sumably a formal guarantee from Tuni-
sian President Bourguiba that the equip-
ment would not be diverted to the Algerian rebellion or em-
ployed against French troops in Tunisia.
A French Foreign Ministry spokesman
on 18 September told the American ambassador that France
will also withdraw its objections to the shipment of arms to
Tunisia by Belgium.
Comment Receipt of arms from Italy and Belgium
may relieve temporarily popular pressure
on Bourguiba to abandon his pro-Western policy. Such pres-
sure will be revived as new crises develop in French-Tunisian
relations over Tunisian support for Algerian independence.
20 Sept 57
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ANNEX
Watch Report 372, 19 September 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the Intel-
ligence Advisory. Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the orbit in the immediate future.
C. Unstable conditions, troop movements and alerts, and ten-
sions stemming from recent developments concerning Syria
continue to create possibilities for conflict in the Middle East.
20 Sept 57
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