CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/03/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03150413
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: March 22, 1957

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
PT
Copy No.
131
1REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
d7/74g771/
TOP SECRET
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CONTENTS
rIt. NUCLEAR TEST ISSUE MAY BECOME CR CIA AT UN
DISARMAMENT SUBCOMMITTEE TALKS (page 3).
2. BEN-GURION MAY BE "FLEXIBLE" ON RETURN TO GAZA
(page 4).
3. DISCONTENT WITH NASR INCREASES IN EGYPT
(page 5).
4. FAWZI RESTATES EGYPTIAN POSITION ON SUEZ
(page 6).
0 h5. SITUATION IN SYRIA
(page 7).
6. JORDANIAN AND SAUDI TROOPS TAKE OVER DEFENSE
OF AQABA (page 8).
7. AFGHANISTAN SEEKS CLOSER TIES WITH WEST
Eider) (page 10).
8. POLITICAL CRISES IN PAKISTAN
069. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
(page n).
(page 12).
10. SOVIET-JAPANESE FISHING NEGOTIATIONS
(page 13).
41,6 11. AMERICAN LEGATION IN BUDAPEST COMMENTS ON
HUNGARIAN-SOVIET TALKS page 14).
ANNEX�Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intellieence
Advisory Committee
(page 15).
22 Mar 57
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1. NUCLEAR TEST ISSUE MAY BECOME CRUCIAL AT UN
DISARMAMENT SUBCOMMITTEE TALKS
Comment on:
Canada is prepared to propose the limi-
tation of nuclear tests in advance of a
general disarmament agreement, accord-
ing to the Canadian delegation to the UN
disarmament subcommittee now meeting
in London. The delegation's instructions
from Ottawa to this effect are probably
directly attributable to the reported grow-
ing concern in Canada over the high concen-
trations of radioactivity in British Columbia.
Japan's continuing concern over nuclear
testing was the subject of an aide-memoire given to the Amer-
ican delegate on 20 March. The Japanese government ex-
pressed its desire that the current session of the subcommittee
achieve "a substantial result" on control, and in particular,
testing, of nuclear weapons. Tokyo said it feared that failure
to accomplish such a result might force Japan to align itself
at future international conferences with the Soviet bloc and
Asian countries advocating an immediate suspension of nuclear
tests.
In his opening speech on 18 March, Soviet
delegate Zorin proposed that an agreement to cease nuclear
tests be reached immediately and apart from agreement on
other disarmament problems. On 19 March he proposed that
India, Yugoslavia, Norway and Japan be invited to appear be-
fore the subcommittee since they are sponsors of proposals--
all related to banning or limiting tests--that the subcommittee
is to consider.
22 Mar 57
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2. BEN-GURION MAY BE "FLEXIBLE" ON RETURN
TO GAZA
The American embassy in Tel Aviv be-
lieves that the fact that Prime Minister
Ben-Gurion on two recent occasions did
not try to arouse Israeli opinion over
Egypt's return to the Gaza strip may re-
flect his desire to retain maximum flexibility of policy on
this issue. The embassy suggests that once Ben-Gurion has
decided that a limited Egyptian return to Gaza cannot be re-
versed, he would begin to minimize the importance of this
political defeat in the eyes of the Israeli public.
The embassy also notes that Israeli chief
of staff Dayan is reported to have told a meeting of Israelis
who have settled near the Gaza border that there was little
likelihood that large-scale fedayeen raids would be renewed,
although some thefts by infiltrators from Gaza were to be ex-
pected.
Comment Other observers have noted that the Israeli
press does not seem to have been given a
consistent line to follow in regard to Israel's policy on Gaza.
Some newspapers criticized Foreign Minister Meiris trip to
the United States as useless. A very widely read independent
paper has denounced talk of retaking Gaza by force on the
ground that this action would .lead only, to the imposition of
sanctions and other international difficulties. There appears
to be a general sentiment in the press that Israel's diplomatic
efforts would be better concentrated on the Gulf of Aqaba issue.
22 Mar 57
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3. DISCONTENT WITH NASR INCREASES IN EGYPT
Rumors of impending coups against the
Nasr government have been recurring
during the past month, and discontent
with the regime is higher than at any
time since the 1952 revolution,
The top level of Egyptian society, the hard-
est hit economically, is convinced that it is only a matter of
time until the Nasr regime falls. This group hopes the United
States will curb Nasr and save Egypt from economic disaster.
Comment
The reopening of the Suez Canal, as well
as continuing diplomatic successes, would
improve Nases internal position and weaken the opposition.
22 Mar 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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4, FAWZI RESTATES EGYPTIAN POSITION ON SUEZ
Egyptian foreign minister Fawzi ap-
peared harassed, deeply troubled and
apprehensive in an interview with Am-
bassador Hare on 20 March. His state-
ments suggest that while he personally desires to come to
a reasonable agreement on a Suez settlement, he is bound
to a hard line by Nasr. Fawzi said that if the Western powers
could agree that there would be no infringement of Egypt's
sovereignty or rights regarding a Suez settlement, then "every-
thing' else"�freedom of navigation, tolls, and maintenance
of the canal �could be easily settled. He said Egypt had no
intention of going back on anything it has said or accepted but
"we should not be distracted by formalisms." He said there
was wide divergence of opinion on an interpretation of the
"six principles" enunciated last October, and Egypt would
have to know an agreed interpretation before it could reaf-
firm them.
Fawzi told Hare that Egypt needs US help,
wants US friendship and would not willingly choose another
course. He said the way ahead was difficult and would require
patience.
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5. SITUATION IN SYRIA
The American military attach�n
Damascus reported on 20 March that
the temporary truce between rightist
and leftist factions in Syria continues.
He felt a break should be expected with-
in the next two or three days.
Damascus have denied that
Colonel Sarraj has been ousted from his
post as head of Syrian intelligence.
Comment
force a
as long
22 Mar 57
The present lull indicates that neither
faction feels it has sufficient power to
"showdown." Leftist influence will remain strong
as Sarraj maintains his position.
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6. JORDANIAN AND SAUDI TROOPS TAKE OVER
DEFENSE OF AQABA
Comment_ 011:
Saudi Arabia-is sending additional troops
to assist Jordan in the defense of the port
of Aqaba.
the Jordanian army assumed respon-
sibility for defense of Aqaba and the surround-
ing area on 13 March--the date of formal
termination of the Anglo-Jordanian treaty.
The Saudis have agreed to deploy an infantry
battalion, a reconnaissance company and a
battery of 25-pounder artillery (88 mm.)--possibly a total of
1,200 men--in the
Aqaba area. The Jor-
danian command plans
to deploy a tank battal-
ion and an infantry bat-
talion in this sector.
About 1,300
British troops, includ-
ing a tank battalion with
� Infantry and antiaircraft
support, have held re-
sponsibility for defense
of this sector. �The
British are now in proc-
ess of moving military
supplies and equipment
through the port of
Aqaba to Aden, and hope
to complete withdrawal
within four months.
In addition to the
Saudi regiment of 2,500
men now in northern
Jordan, the Saudis have
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22 Mar 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
TABU
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21 MARCH 1957
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battalion-size units in the Haqal and Magna areas on the east-
ern shore of the Gulf of Aqaba, and another force including at
least two 25-pounder guns at the entrance to the gulf at Shaikh
Hamid. Despite these efforts to protect Aqaba and the land
link with Saudi Arabia, the reinforcements are inadequate to
provide effective defense against Israel in so extensive an area.
The troop movement for the first time brings the Saudis into
position where direct contact with Israeli forces in the event
of hostilities is almost certain.
22 Mar 57
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7. AFGHANISTAN SEEKS CLOSER TIES WITH WEST
Reference:
recent Afghan actions suggest
that Kabul is trying to increase its ties
with the Near East and the West to pro-
tect itself against additional Soviet pres-
bure in tne iuture. Afghanistan has sent 24 additional army
officers and eight cadets to Turkey for military training,
despite Soviet suggestions that the Turkish military mission
in Afghanistan be sent home and be replaced by Soviet or Egyp-
tian officers.
Afghan authoritieslave,now started to show Afghan military
units to the Turkish military attache. Previously, no for-
eign attache had been shown anything but the Afghan war
academy and military school.
Afghan
interest in Iraq's economic development plan.
the Iraqi ambassador hoped Prime Minister Dau would
Iraq after his trip to Turkey in late April. The comprehensive
Iraqi development plan, which is wholly financed by oil rev-
enues, would be likely to impress Daud.
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S. POLITICAL CRISES IN PAKISTAN
Comment on:
Intense political maneuvering has re-
sulted in the proroguing of the West
Pakistan legislature and the assump-
tion of administrative powers by Presi-
dent Mirza on 21 March. Mirza reportedly
took over the West Pakistani government to prevent the Re-
publican Party from losing control to forces advocating divi-
sion of the one-unit province into the six units which existed
prior to 1955.
In East Pakistan, both the provincial gov-
ernment and Prime Minister Suhrawardy's pro-Western foreign
policy are about to face a serious test. Resolutions on full
regional autonomy for East Pakistan and on foreign policy are
to be debated within a few days.
These threats in both West and East Pak-
istan make Suhrawardy's position as prime minister insecure.
Political instability may also delay a rapprochement between
Pakistan and Afghanistan. In addition, Prime Minister Nehru
of India may be less inclined to make any concessions on Kash-
mir during UN representative Jarring's visit to New Delhi if he
feels that the Pakistani government is too preoccupied to give
its full attention to the dispute.
22 Mar 57
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9. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
Comment on:
The Indonesian army territorial com-
manders conference concluded on 20
March with a demand that President
Sukarno take former vice president
Hatta back into the government.
Hatta is reported to have rejected
Sukarno's suggestion that he head an
economic planning board but be denied
any political influence in the government.
The army commanders, although be-
lieved unanimous in desiring a key role
for Hatta, were reported split by a vote
ofv,/ snx to three as to their support of General Nasution in his
administration of the army and his support of the central gov-
ernment. The three dissenting votes came from the com-
manders of Central and South Sumatra and East Indonesia.
There is no indication that the dissenting commanders feel
bound by the majority decision to annul autonomous meas-
ures in their respective areas.
The army chief of staff, General Nasution,
has indicated to the Moslem parties that he approves their op-
position to Communist participation in the new cabinet. The
secretary general of the Indonesian Communist Party, however,
has threatened a general strike by SOBS!, Indonesia's largest
trade federation, if the anti-Communist Masjumi party is al-
lowed to participate in the next cabinet and the Communists
are barred. SOBSI probably would be controlled in most non-
Javanese areas, but could paralyze r or tion, commerce,
and Western enterprises in Java.
22 Mar 57
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10. SOVIET-JAPANESE FISHING NEGOTIATIONS
Comment on:
former Japanese minister
of agriculture and forestry Kono is
apparently making no headway toward
breaking the deadlock in the fishery
negotiations with the USSR now being held in Tokyo.
The Soviet negotiator maintains that the
salmon quota Kono accepted last May in Moscow is final and
says he does not recall any verbal promise to reconsider
this quota in relation to the Soviet catch for 1956.
The USSR successfully used the salmon
quota last year to pressure Japan into restoring diplomatic
relations. The USSR's present adamant stand and Khrushchev's
18 March statement that fishing and trade problems should be
solved together suggest that the fishery problem is being used
as a lever to obtain a trade pact with Japan.
The necessity under the terms of the fish-
ery pact for Japan and the USSR to negotiate quotas annually
provides the USSR with a lever which may be applied at an op-
portune time to force Japan to conclude a peace treaty on Mos-
cow's terms.
22 Mar 57
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11. AMERICAN LEGATION IN BUDAPEST COMMENTS ON
HUNGARIAN-SOVIET TALKS
The American legation in Budapest be-
lieves that the current Hungarian-Soviet
talks in Moscow will result in some
superficial concessions to Hungary now
that the Kadar regime has weathered the 15 March test of
its internal control. While the most obvious features of
Soviet control may be softened, there will be no significant
changes in internal policy.
According to reports from two other West-
ern missions in Budapest, the USSR may agree to a broaden-
ing of the base of the Kadar government. There may also be
numerous personnel changes, with Kadar possibly stepping
down as premier. A status of forces agreement may be con-
cluded, and economic questions are also expected to be dis-
cussed.
Comment The Soviet-Hungarian meeting will prob-
ably produce agreement on additional sub-
stantial economic assistance for Hungary, as has been the case
in other recent bilateral meetings between the USSR and its
Satellites. A Hungarian broadcast on 20 March concerning the
talks stated that the "terms of a further development of eco-
nomic relations" would be discussed.
22 Mar 57
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400k,
ANNEX
Watch Report 3469 21 March
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the im-
mediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities against Israel by the
Arab states is improbable in the immediate future. Israel,
though apparently now relying on diplomatic measures, may
at any time renew hostilities if faced with one or more prov-
ocations such as: an introduction of substantial Egyptian
military forces into the Gaza strip, a renewal of exten-
sive fedayeen raids, an attempted denial of passage for Is-
raeli shipping through the Straits of Tiran or an early with-
drawal of UN forces. Other unsettled issues and tensions
in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Jordan, also
constitute possibilities for violence.
22 Mar 57
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