CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/03/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Keywords: 2018 Sanitization
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03150410
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: March 8, 1957

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8 March 1957
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DOCUMENT NO. 1LL
NO CHANGE NI CI ASS.
Copy No. 131
I DrC.::LASSIFIED
CLP CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
ALIT! I: lin 7O-2
DATE
REVIEWE
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTE;NTS
ARABS REPORT ISRAELI PLAN TO ATTACK EGYPT IF
AQABA PASSAGE IS OBSTRUCTE11
(page 3).
2. EGYPT OFFERS TO SEND TROOPS TO AID JORDAN IN
DEFENSE OF AQABA (page 4).
103.
V-- 4
1\()5.
THE SITUATION IN JORDA/s
(page 5).
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT FEARS EAST INDONESIAN
COUP IS STEP TOWARD INDEPENDENCE
(page 6).
SUEZ CANAL TOLLS ISSUE CONSIDERED CRUCIAL TO
AMERICAN PRESTIGE IN BRITAIN (page 7).
EGYPTIAN NAVY SEEKING VOLUNTEERS FOR SUBMARINE
DUTY (page 8).
7. SAUDI ARABIA SIGNS ARMS AGREEMENT WITH SPAIN
(page 9).
8. TRAINING PRO RAM IN SOVIET A� S ESTABLISHED IN
KABUL
(page 10).
9 CA flODIA SHOWS GROWIN AWARENESS OF COMMUNIST
SUBVERSION THREAT (page 11).
10. ATTEMPT MAY BE MADE TO OVERTHROW HAITI'S LATEST
PRESIDENT (page 12).
11. AUSTRIA RESTRICTS UN COMMITTEE INVESTIGATING
0 HUNGARY (page 13).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee (Top Secret) (Noforn Except
(page 14).
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1. ARABS REPORT ISRAELI PLAN TO ATTACK EGYPT IF
AQABA PASSAGE IS OBSTRUCTED
Israel plans, follow-
ing withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and
Sharm el-Shaikh, to send a "large naval
convoy" through the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba If Egyp-
tian forces attempt to obstruct passage of Israeli ships,
Israel plans to make a "lightning attack
against Egypt on a broad scale by sea, land and air."
* * * * * *
Evaluation of this item is awaiting re-
ceipt of additional information which has been requested.
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2. EGYPT OFFERS TO SEND TROOPS TO AID JORDAN IN
DEFENSE OF AQABA
Comment on:
Egyptian General Headquarters in Cairo
requested the opinion of the
Jordanian Command "about entering Aqaba
to share in its defense with Jordanian
forces," Egyptian combat units have not
previously been stationed in Jordan.
Withdrawal of the 1,400 British troops
following termination of the Anglo-Jordanian defense treaty
would leave most of South Jordan and the port of Aqaba =-
protected. The Jordanian Command plans to deploy a force
of two Jordanian battalions and one Saudi battalion in the Aqaba
area,. This force, however, appears inadequate to provide ef-
fective defense to so extensive an area.
Deployment of Egyptian combat forces in
the Aqaba area would be considered a strong provocation by
Israel and increase general tension along the Jordanian frontier.
Such tension would make more difficult any attempt by King
Hussain to move against ultranationalist elements in Jordan.
The presence of Egyptian troops in Jordan would also restrain
King Hussain from attempting to move toward the West.
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3, THE SITUATION IN JORDAN
Comment on:
Jordanian prime minister Nabulsi's out-
spoken anti-Western position following
King Hussain's return on 2 March from
the meeting of Arab chiefs of state in
Cairo is probably a bid for popular sup-
port in order to prevent the king from
pressing for dismissal of left-wing cabi-
net members.
On 6 March Nabulsi declared publicly
that any attempt by the United States to
enforce freedom of navigation for Israeli
shipping in the Gulf of Aqaba would be
consi of enmity" by the Arab world. He added
that the Arabs felt no country had the right to send ships through
the Gulf of Aqaba "without our consent." Concerning the Amer-
ican plan for the Middle East, the prime minister stated that
he saw no Communist threat in Jordan; that military interfer-
ence was not welcome; and that any plan for keeping peace should
work through the UN. Nabulsi is reported to have asserted three
days earlier that he would not receive the Richards mission from
the United States, despite King Hussain's wish that he do so.
Jordan's Interior Minister Nimr on 2 March
informed the Egyptian military attach�n Jordan that while in
Cairo King Hussain had insisted on co-operating with the Amer-
icans in order to obtain funds. Nimr stated that he and Nabulsi
succeeded, however, in persuading Hussain to continue Jordan's
alignment with Egypt and Syria. They allegedly persuaded Hus-
sain that if it were essential to move closer to the United States,
it might be possible to attempt to have American technical aid
increased.
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4. INDONESIAN GOVE ENT FEARS EAST INDONESIAN
COUP IS STEP TOWARD INDEPENDENCE
The Indonesian government and army
chief of staff Nasution are more con-
cerned over the East Indonesian coup
of 2 March than they have been over the
Sumatran disaffection,
They fear
that the East Indonesian move for greater autonomy is only
the first step toward an eventual declaration of independence,
and Nasution believes that a stiff stand by Djakarta would
hasten such a development.
Lt. Col. Samual, territorial commander
In East Indonesia, has the support of traditional local rulers
who have consistently been opposed to the central government.
Most veterans of the former Netherlands Indonesian army are
in East Indonesia, and Nasution considers them to be suffi-
ciently well trained to form an army which would undoubtedly
support a move for independence. East Indonesia is also be-
lieved to be in a better position economically to maintain it-
self than Sumatra. The central government also regards as a
disquieting feature the proximity of Netherlands-controlled
West New Guinea, which would facilitate Dutch aid.
Comment The Djakarta government sent army nego-
tiators to Makassar, East Indonesian army
headquarters, on 6 March. If negotiations fail, it may attempt
a countercoup using Colonel Sudirman, a Javanese officer sta-
tioned in East Indonesia who has not committed himself to
Samuars action. Sudirman holds a special operational com-
mand composed of nine battalions, most of them Javanese, in
South Celebes and is under central rather than local army
authority. These forces make up approximately one fourth of
the army forces in East Indonesia.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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5. SUEZ CANAL TOLLS ISSUE CONSIDERED CRUCIAL TO
AMERICAN PRESTIGE IN BRITAIN
If Britain is required to pay tolls directly
to Egypt after the Suez Canal opens, the
result would be. disastrous to the United
States' standing in Britain, Ambassador
Whitney reports following a conversation
on 6 March with Lord Salisbury, influential Leader of the
House of Lords.
Whitney and Salisbury discussed the "dis-
tressing lack of improvement in Anglo-American feeling."
Salisbury analyzed anti-American feeling as a "simmering
pot nearly ready to boil." The United States would be given
the whole blame if tolls were to be paid directly to Egypt,
Salisbury suggested, even if the United States opposed it.
Comment Lord Salisbury's statements underline the
widespread British view that the United
States is not putting sufficient pressure on Nasr, and that the
Suez crisis may therefore result in a total defeat for Britain.
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6� EGYPTIAN NAVY SEEKING VOLUNTEERS FOR
SUB RINE DUTY
Comment on:
Egyptian naval headquarters in Alex-
andria instructed subordinate unitsn
to report the
names of officers who wish to serve in
submarines.
Egypt ordered at least two submarines
under its first arms purchase agreement with the Soviet
Union in late 1955, but to date no submarines are believed
to have arrived in Egypt. Egyptian personnel who received
submarine training in Poland last spring and summer returned
to Egypt in October 1956.
bloc plans to deliver one
submarine during September-October, manned by Soviet crews
in Polish uniform. At least two Soviet submarines moved cov-
ertly from the Baltic to the Mediterranean in September, but
are not believed to have gone to Egypt. In early November
another submarine, which was probably destined for Egypt,
returned to the Baltic after entering the Mediterranean, pre-
sumably because of the outbreak of hostilities in Egypt.
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7. SAUDI
Comment on:
IA SIGNS S AGREEMENT WITH SPAIN
Saudi Arabia successfully concluded an
arms purchase agreement with Spain on
30 January.
Saudi arms procurement efforts shifted
to Spain during the summer of 1956, af-
ter failure of attempts to obtain heavy
arms from France and the United States.
The Saudis appear most anxious to ob-
tain mortars and coast artillery guns.
They are reported to have also ordered an undetermined num-
ber of 105-mm. howitzers, and 88-mm. and 40-mm. antiair-
craft guns. The agreement is believed to include ammunition,
hand grenades, and medical supplies. The contracts probably
provide for delivery over a two-year period.
Saudi Arabia is attempting to expedite
delivery of artillery for coast defense, probably because of
the weakness of Saudi positions along the eastern shore of
the Gulf of Aqaba.
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8. TRAINING PROGRAM IN SOVIET ARMS ESTABLISHED
IN KABUL
Five training courses on the use of Soviet
arms are being conducted in Kabul for.'
Afghan officers, according to an Afghan
army officer. He said there are 80 offi-
ers in the antiaircraft course, 55 in the field artillery course,
100 in the mortars course, 150 in the infantry course, and an
unknown number in the antitank course. Some of the courses,
which are to last for six months, are conducted by Russian of-
ficers,
The American army attach�as noted sev-
eral hundred Afghan officers entering school buildings near the
Ministry of Defense every day.
Comment Substantial quantities of ground forces
equipment are believed to have reached
Afghanistan under the Soviet-Afghan arms agreement. The
USSR reportedly is also developing a training program for the
air force. Afghan officers are also being trained by Turkey and
the United States.
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9. CA ODIA SHOWS GROWING AWARENESS OF
COMMUNIST SUBVERSION THREAT
Comment on:
Concern over Communist influence in
Cambodia as well as a desire to take
corrective measures appears to be
growing in the Cambodian government.
The strongly anti-Communist minister
o na lona r y, Dap Chhuon, is taking an increasingly
bold stand against a policy of accommodation with the Sino-
Soviet bloc.
Prince Sihanouk, who has been the chief
proponent of closer relations with the bloc, seems to be
moving toward a policy of repression of Communist politi-
cal activity in Cambodia. The open subversion of the local
Overseas Chinese community by Communist agents operat-
ing in defiance of repeated Cambodian government warnings
seems to have made a particularly profound impression on
the prince. Suggestive of this change in Sihanouk's outlook
is his reported endorsement of closer Cambodian-South Viet-
namese relations, including joint security operations against
dissident Vietnamese and Viet Minh bands in the border area.
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10,. ATTEMPT MAY BE �E TO OVERTHROW HAITI'S
LATEST PRESIDENT
Comment on:
A leading Haitian businessman informed
the American embassy on 4 March that
an incident aimed at overthrowing Pro-
visional President Franck Sylvain would
develop this week. The embassy adds that
this incident may be set off by a strike of
supporters of Daniel Fignole, radical presidential candidate
who was detained briefly 0n5 March for an attempt to violate
the ban on political broadcasts.
According to some observers, army chief
of staff Cantave and presidential aspirant Jumelle have been
looking for an incident which would permit the army to inter-
vene and maintain public order, ousting Sylvain in the process.
Jumelle, who is supported by Cantave, has been reported co-
operating with Fignole.
An attempt to oust Sylvain might lead to
serious civil disturbances between the supporters of the sev-
eral presidential candidates and possibly between various fac-
tions in the army.
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CONFMENTIAt
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11 AUSTRIA RESTRICTS UN COMMITTEE
INVESTIGATING HUNGARY
The Austrian Foreign Ministry has told
the UN committee on Hungary that it may
not interrogate refugees in Austria, al-
though it is welcome to conduct investiga-
tions. According to a Foreign Ministry official, Austria's
"precarious relationship with the Soviet bloc" is the real rea-
son for the government's stand, although it has explained the
decision on the ground that it fears disturbances in the refugee
camps.
Comment There have been other indications recently
that the strong Soviet criticism of Austria's
"unneutrality" is getting on Vienna's nerves. The government
initially instructed its UN delegation to abstain on the Soviet
resolution charging the US with instigating the Hungarian re-
volt and was persuaded to be absent instead only after strong
representations from the US that abstention would be widely
misunderstood.
Foreign Minister Figl, moreover, is said
to have accepted as authentic a recent report of Hungarian pres-
sure for Soviet reoccupation of Austria--a report which Ambas-
sador Thcmnsnn he1ievs was a deliberate plant in the "war of
nerves."
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ANNEX
Watch Report 344, 7 March
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the Intel-
ligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C.
A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East is
improbable in the immediate future. Unsettled issues and
continuing tensions in the area constitute possibilities for
violence.
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TOP SECRET
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