CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/02/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03150408
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: February 26, 1957

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CURRENT
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26 February 1957 e4,
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EVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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NASR REPORTED WILLING TO "ENCOURAGE" ACCEPT-
ANCE OF AMERICAN MIDDLE EAST PROPOSAL
(page 3).
r\l? 2. KING SAUD WARNS AGAINST COMMUNIST SABOTAGE IN
ARABIA (page 4).
3. ARABS INCREASINGLY APPREHENSIVE OVER ISRAELI
AND BRITISH INTENTIONS (page 5).
INDONESIAN COMMUNISTS EXPLOIT SUKARNO CONCEPT
FOR ANTI-WESTERN CAMPAIGN (page 6).
he 5. NATO OPPOSITION TO BRITISH TROOP CUTS
7\MI (page 7).
611\ 6. POSSIBILITY OF SOVIET TROOP MOVEMENT INTO CZECHO-
SLOVAKIA RUMORED (page 8).
7. ADENAUER'S REPLY TO BULGANIN MAKES SUGGESTIONS
FOR IMPROVING RELATIONS
(page 9)o
\L. 8. SARAGAT SOCIALIST 'S_POSTONE DISCUSSION OF MERGER
WITH NENNI GROUP (page 10).
v 9. PROSPECTS OF NEW JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SEEN
FAVORABLE (page 11).
26 Feb 57
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Ok.
1. NASR REPORTED WILLING TO "ENCOURAGE" ACCEPT-
ANCE OF AMERICAN MIDDLE EAST PROPOSAL
Egyptian president Nasr will neither ac-
cept nor reject the American proposals
for the Middle East, but is willing to
"encourage" their acceptance,
Since Nasr reportedly wishes to reach
full agreement with King Saud, he is inclined to view the
American proposals with favor.
if the momentum
created by President Eisenhower's speech of 20 February
can be maintained, the prospects for a favorable outcome of
the current "summit" meeting of the four Arab heads of
state will be "extremely good!'
Syria would follow Egypt's le
toward the American proposals.
Comment
d in shif
'ng its attitude
Nasr is almost certainly anxious to avoid
placing himself in direct opposition to
King Saud. Nasr is aware of the Icing's irritation over the
hostile reception the Egyptian press gave the Saudi-American
communiqu�nd Saud's statements favoring the American pro-
posals. It is unlikely, however, that his "encouragement"
would be very substantial, because of his abiding suspicion
of Western policy, his dependence on the Soviet Union for mil-
itary supplies and economic support, and his demonstrated re-
luctance to make any pro-Western gesture which could be in-
terpreted as offending Arab nationalism.
36 Feb 57
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V
2� KING SAUD WARNS AGAINST COMMUNIST SABOTAGE
IN ARABIA
King Saud has warned that because of
his visit to the United States and the
development of closer Saudi-American
relations "the Communists will intensify
their propaganda against Saudi Arabia
and will send out their agents everywhere!'
The king ordered the governor to take
careful, secret precautions to screen persons entering Saudi
Arabia and to watch over the oil pumping stations, refineries
and pipelines.
Comment
While King Saud has always professed to
be aware of the dangers of Communism,
before his trip to the United States he usually brushed aside
discussion of Communist threats and instead emphasized the
dangers posed by Israel, The development in his thinking
shows the influence of his
American visit. He is particularly sensitive to the threat
of sabotage, because of a wave of Egyptian-inspired attempts
to sabotage Western-owned oil installations in Bahrein, Kuwait
and Syria last fall.
26 Feb 57
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3. ARABS INCREASINGLY APPREHENSIVE OVER ISRAELI
AND BRITISH INTENTIONS
the British have ad-
vised President Chamoun of Lebanon
that an armed conflict will occur shortly
between Israel and "some of the Arab states" and that Britain
will intervene "to repress it!' Britain is reported to have instructed
its forces in the Mediterranean area to be "prepared for an
emergency!'
Comment
Since 14 February, the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian com-
mands have been preoccupied with reports of a large-scale
Israeli mobilization and troop concentrations opposite Jordan
and Syria. The most, however, which has been confirmed so
far by American attaches and UN observers is that very
limited Israeli call-ups and redeployment have probably taken
place.
Israel, with the encourage-
ment of Britain, would attack Jordan after termination of the
Anglo-Jordanian Treaty some time in March. Termination
of Britain's obligation to defend Jordan, and Israel's long-
standing interest in establishing its frontier on the militarily
defensible line of the Jordan River have revived rumors of
schemes for an impending partition of Jordan.
that Arab fears are being exploited by the Soviet military attache
in Syria, as well as directly by Moscow.
26 Feb 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page 5
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4. INDONESIAN COMMUNISTS EXPLOIT SUKARNO CONCEPT
FOR ANTI-WESTERN CAMPAIGN
Comnient on:
The Indonesian Communist Party�has
enthusiastically acclaimed President
Sukarno's "nation-saving concept" and
has launched a vigorous pro-Sukarno
and anti-Western campaign. At a re-
cent mass demonstration in Djakarta, during which US-
owned property was damaged, a resolution was adopted
calling on all Indonesians to support the president's pro-
posals and denouncing as traitors those who would not do
so. Sukarno has welcomed this Communist-organized
demonstration as evidence of popular support for his plans
and has stated that theirs was the "voice of the people, which
is the voice of God!'
Sukarno appears determined to move
quickly in carrying out the essential elements of his con-
cept which involves the establishment of an "all-representa-
tive" and all-powerful appointed "advisory council" and a
new cabinet, both with Communist participation. In this con-
nection, he has invited political parties in the present cabi-
net to express their views on his proposals on 28 February.
Although he will probably first seek to
win their support through negotiation, compromise, and the
impact of mass support, Sukarno is reportedly planning
the arrest of numerous opposition leaders should they fail
to accept his plans. Sukarno is also reportedly planning to
declare martial law if he runs into serious opposition, and
to implement his concept through force.
26 Feb 57
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5. NATO OPPOSITION TO BRITISH TROOP CUTS
Comment on:
Sharp criticisms offered during the
North Atlantic Council discussion on
22 February of proposed British force
reductions in Germany may increase
when the Western European Union (WE U) ministerial coun-
cil considers the problem on 26 February.
Britain proposes to cut its ground forces
in Germany from about 80,000 to 50,000 and tactical air force
planes there from 446 to 216 during the year ending in March
1958. SACEUR expressed the hope that the reductions could
be modified and phased out through 1959 to take account of
the German build-up.
Germany, France, Belgium, the Nether-
lands, Italy, Greece and Norway all expressed deep concern
over the immediate and long-term implications for NATO of
the British plan. They warned of an inevitable chain reac-
tion which would nullify the ministerial meeting's reaffirma-
tion last December that a strong allied defense posture is a
continuing policy.
This strong continental reaction was pre-
sumably discussed at the special week-end meeting of the
British cabinet. Any modification of the British position
would be intended to reduce the chances that a WEU majority
might formally oppose the reductions.
26 Feb 57
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.10
6. POSSIBILITY OF SOVIET TROOP MOVEMENT INTO
CZECHOSLOVAKIA RUMORED
Rumors are circulating in Prague that
Soviet troops may be moved into Czecho-
slovakia to strengthen the Warsaw pact
in line with the 29 January Czech-Soviet
declaration, according to the American
army a in Prague. Western diplomats speculate that
the government is trying to sound out popular opinion and
condition the people to the possible presence of Soviet troops,
The source believes the deployment of high-ranking regime
officials throughout the country to explain the joint declara-
tion to the people supports this speculation and denotes "un-
usual" and "significant" concern for public opinion.
American officials point out, however,
that these rumors could have been planted by the regime to
sound out Western reactions to such a move.
Comment Stationing of Soviet troops in Czecho-
slovakia would complete the military en-
circlement of Poland and put additional pressure on the
Warsaw government. In making such a move Soviet leaders
would probably claim that the Warsaw pact countries had
been forced to take countermeasures for their own security
by United States plans to station special troops armed with
atomic weapons in West Germany.
The introduction of Soviet troops intO the.
country would tend to stimulate anti-Soviet feelings in
Czechoslovakia, hitherto one of the most loyal Satellites.
26 Feb 57
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7. ADENAUER'S REPLY TO BULGANIN MAKES SUGGESTIONS
FOR IMPROVING RELATIONS
Sc
Chancellor Adenauer's reply to Premier
Bulganin's 8 February letter will call for
talks with the USSR as soon as possible on
trade relations and subsequent talks on
c and technical co-operation,
The message, which is sched-
uled for delivery on 26 February and for publication later,
notes the increase in German-Soviet trade and agrees that
further expansion would improve political relations, but
also cites the unification problem and the continued deten-
tion of German citizens in the USSR as two obstacles to
friendly relations.
en
Comment The unusually friendly tone of the letter
is in evident recognition of the widespread
sentiment in West Germany for improvement in relations with
the Soviet Union. The opposition has exploited the poor state
of Bonn-Moscow relations in its early campaigning for the
September Bundestag elections.
26 Feb 57
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8. SARAGAT SOCIALISTS POSTPONE DISCUSSION OF
MERGER WITH NENNI GROUP
The Italian Democratic Socialist Party
directorate on 23 February rejected a
proposal to hold an immediate national
party congress to consider a merger
with the Nenni Socialist Party (PSI).
The directorate issued a resolution stat-
ing that "only the future concrete politi-
cal acts of the PSI will provide a clari-
fication" of the extent to which the Nenni Socialists have
broken with Communist influence. The resolution added,
however, that the Democratic Socialists regard the recent
PSI congress as "a step forward on the road toward unifica-
tion," and the directorate took no action to block the co-
operation which is already taking place between the two
parties at the local level.
Prior to the directorate's meeting, the
American embassy reported that Democratic Socialist chief
Saragat, who originally split the Socialist Party to escape
Communist domination, was under strong pressure from
elements in his party and the Socialist International favor-
ing reunification. In a conversation with embassy officials
on 21 February, Saragat complained about the hostile atti-
tude displayed toward him by British Laborites and their
support for Nenni and early Socialist reunification. He
interprets this attitude as stemming from a British desire
to "monopolize" US friendship and to act as the interme-
diary between the US and the rest of Europe.
26 Feb 57
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9. PROSPECTS OF NEW JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER
SEEN FAVORABLE
Nobusuke Kishi's smooth succession to
the Japanese prime ministership and
his retention of the Ishibashi cabinet,
with the addition of influential faction
leader Mitsujiro Ishii, has minimized
he danger of early internal strife in the
overnment party, according to Ambassa-
or MacArthur. Despite the fact that a
new struggle for control of the party is about to begin, Mac-
Arthur believes that Kishi's prospects for continuing as
prime minister for a considerable time appear good since
he now enjoys near-unanimous party support and has avoided
commitments to the competing factions.
Kishi lacks the personal popularity Ishi-
bashi enjoyed, and this, together with his wartime record
as a member of Tojo's cabinet, may handicap the conserva-
tives' position vis-a-vis the Socialists. On the other hand,
he is respected for his intelligence and ability, and there is
a chance that he will achieve his goal of uniting the younger
party leaders into an effective political and governing organ-
ization.
he intends to form his own cabinet at
the end of the current Diet session, scheduled for 18 May.
He hopes to avoid holding elections until May 1958,
Comment
Kishi's rise to power has been based on
shrewd politics and the achievement of
compromises rather than by his formulation and support of
forthright policies. He has disclosed privately that it may
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be necessary for him to "swim with the political tide:' His
recent commitment in the Diet to oppose the introduction
into Japan of nuclear weapons and any American atomic task
force emphasizes his responsiveness to popular attitudes
26 Feb 57
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