CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/10/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03150401
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: October 16, 1956

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3.5(c)
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
16 October 1956
Copy No. 2
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
E] DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS $ C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: --Self-?
70-54 DATV REVIEWER
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
e; 194/
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CONTENTS
1. IRAQI TROOP MOVEMENT INTO JORDAN POSTPONED
(page 3).
. M LKA MAY APPROACH UNITED STATES FOR LOAN
(page 4).
3. CHOU EN-LAI PROTEST ON HONG KONG RIOTS
(page 5).
4. POLITICAL CRISIS IN CAMBODIA
(page 6).
5. HUNGARIAN 7X- PREMIER NAGY READMITTED TO PARTY
(page 7).
6, AUSTRIAN SOCIALISTS DOUBT THEY CAN BLOCK ACCEPT-
ANCE OF SOVIET LOAN (page 8).
16 Oct 56
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 9)
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Nee Nu,
1. IRAQI TROOP MOVEMENT INTO JORDAN POSTPONED
The move of Iraqi troops into Jordan
scheduled for 15 October has been de-
layed, according to Iraqi prime minis-
ter Nun i Said. A new date for the entry
will depend on the outcome of Iraqi-Jordanian talks which
began in Amman on 14 October. Nun i told Ambassador
Gallman that the move had not been abandoned but post-
poned because of the sharp Israeli reaction and Iraq's de-
sire to obtain a "written request" from Jordan.
Comment The postponement is probably due mainly
to the uncertainty in Iraq caused by the
strong Israeli reaction. Iraq is probably also encountering
difficulties with Jordanian officials as to the size of the
force, command responsibilities and duration of stay.
Jordan is under pressure from other
Arab states who fear predominant Iraqi influence. Despite
British assurances that the Anglo-Jordanian treaty would
be honored if Israel used the entry of Iraqi troops to attack
Jordan, Jordan p.nd Iraq probably have doubts as to the ex-
tent of British support should an outbreak occur.
A usually reliable source has told the
American army attach�n Baghdad that Iraqi army recon-
naissance of supply points inside Jordan has been completed
and the movement of supplies forward has begun.
16 Oct 56
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2. GOMULKA MAY APPROACH UNITED STATES
FOR LOAN
e Belgian iiinster to Poland claims
to have accurate information that
Wladyslaw Gomulka will be named vice
premier and politburo member at the
centralcommittee plenum now scheduled to meet 18 Octo-
ber and that he is considering requesting large-scale as-
sistance from the United States. The American ambassa-
dor comments that the Belgian minister seems to have
close friends in the Polish hierarchy and his story may be
a regime-inspired trial balloon.
According to this report, Gomulka has
prepared a new economic plan--which the regime will ac-
cept--calling for large sums for modernizing Polish indus-
try and purchasing raw materials. The Poles have report-
edly been told by the USSR that it cannot give any additional
aid, and that the Russians therefore approve Gomulka's plan.
Comment The resignation of Hilary Minc from the
politburo and as first deputy premier last
week set the stage for Gomulka's return to office.
Several Polish officials, in informal con-
versations with Westerners, have stressed their belief that
only American aid could improve the Polish economy.
In addition, a prominent Polish editor re-
cently called for a re-evaluation of the effect of the Marshall
Plan, and concluded that anyone who looked at the booming
economy of Western Europe today could see that the Commu-
nists had been wrong when they claimed the plan would bring
about industrial regression and impoverishment of the masses.
This is the first public praise of the Marshall Plan from a
Soviet bloc country.
16 Oct 56
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3. CHOU EN-LAI PROTEST ON HONG KONG RIOTS
Comment on:
Premier Chou En-lai's statement to
Western newsmen on 14 October that
Communist China could not "permit"
such disorders as the Hong Kong riots
to take place on its doorstep reflects
Peiping's sensitivity to the anti-Commu-
nist aspects of the riots. Continued
diplomatic pressure from Peiping, how-
ever, seems certain in view of the offi-
cial Chinese protest to the British, which reserved the right
to make "further demands" on the matter.
In his formal note of protest delivered to
British charg�'affaires O'Neill in Peiping on 13 October,
Chou En-lai expressed Communist China's "indignation and
concern" over the riots. He blamed Chinese Nationalist
agents for inspiring the violence and accused the Hong Kong
government of failure to provide adequate protection for the
colony's two million Chinese residents,
The Chinese Communists will probably
renew their efforts to obtain official representation in the
colony and a more intensive covert infiltration of the Hong
Kong Chinese community.
16 Oct 56
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New CONFIDENTIAL Nov
4. POLITICAL CRISIS IN CAMBODIA
Comment on:
Prince Sihanouk's resignation as premier
for the third time this year may leave
Cambodia without leadership for some time.
Although Sihanouk announced he was quit-
mg ecause o a igue" and "budgetary difficulties," the real
reason is undoubtedly conflict with the two "strong men" in
his cabinet, Defense Minister Prince Monireth and Minister
of Internal Security Dap Chhuon. Sihanouk is said to be par-
ticularly opposed to stiff measures against corruption de-
sired by these men.
Cambodia's economic and political sta-
bility has suffered severely during 1956 as a result of four
changes in government, none of which provided effective ad-
ministration. This instability has been aggravated by Sihanouk's
controversial neutralist policy.
In view of the pressing need for strong gov-
ernment, it is possible that Sihanouk's present cabinet, one of
Cambodia's ablest, may be retained with a new premier. Si-
hanouk, however, has the resignation of all cabinet members
"in his pocket," which may indicate that he intends to rule
again by appointing a figurehead. Unless a strong leader, such
as Monireth or Dap Chhuon, takes over, this would mean
another caretaker government in which capable men would be
loath to serve.
16 Oct 56
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5. HUNGARIAN EX-PREMIER NAGY READMITTED TO PARTY
Comment on:
The readmission to the Hungarian party
of Yugoslav-supported ex-premier Imre
Nagy, announced on 14 October, paves
the way for the formation of a more
moderate Hungarian government at the 29 October special
National Assembly meeting. Nagy may be appointed to an
influential position, possibly the head of the Patriotic Peo-
ple's Front. A number of Nagy's policies have already been
partially or completely accepted by the current leadership.
Before his reinstatement� Nagy apparently
reached a limited compromise with the regime. He stated
in a letter to the central committee on 4 October that he was
willing to abide by the decisions of the party, but pointed out
his continued disagreement with some of its current policies.
He also admitted that he made some mistakes, but said that
he is unwilling to discuss these until such time as the regime
permits a full and public discussion of his ouster.
Nagy's return to the party coincides with
the departure on 14 October of Hungarian leaders for Bel-
grade to hold talks with Yugoslav leaders. On the same day,
the Hungarian press hailed Yugoslavia's "unswerving progress"
in building socialism and national independence, and initiated
an active anti-Rakosi campaign, condemning the former leader
for "disgracing the cause of socialism!'
16 Oct 56
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6, AUSTRIAN SOCIALISTS DOUBT THEY CAN BLOCK
ACCEPTANCE OF SOVIET LOAN
Austrian Socialists feel they will be
unable to prevent acceptance of a Soviet
loan which First Deputy Premier Mikoyan
may offer when he arrives in Austria on
er, the Socialist parliamentary leader informed
Ambassador Thompson on 12 October.
The Soviet embassy in Vienna is trying
to influence the conservative People's Party as well as the
Socialists--the two parties comprising the coalition gov-
ernment--to accept a loan to modernize Vienna's public trans-
portation system, including the construction of a subway, and
to assist the industrial complex formerly controlled by the
USSR.
Comment Last year a Soviet proposal for a sub-
stantial loan to the Lower Austrian
provincial government, where most of the formerly. Soviet-
controlled industries are located, was turned down largely
as a result of Socialist efforts. The Socialists are now in
a poor position to block Soviet loan offers since they lost
ground to the People's Party in the May national election.
The People's Party now controls the Austrian parliament.
16 Oct 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 15 October)
An Israeli military patrol on 14 October
was reported to have killed two Egyptian guerrillas and cap-
tured two others near the central Negev settlement of Sde B-oker,
occasional residence of Prime Minister Ben-GuriorL (Press)
Jordan on 15 October formally asked for a
meeting of the UN Security Council "as soon as possible" to
consider the "most serious situation" created by the Israeli as-
sault on Jordanian positions at Qalqiliya on 10 October. The
council is expected to meet on 18 October to consider the com-
plaint. (Press)
In a new warning aimed at Britain, the
Israeli Foreign Ministry declared "whoever encourages or abets
Iraq, actively or passively, in the realization of its schemes
takes upon himself a grave responsibility." British efforts to al-
lay Israeli suspicions over the proposed movement of Iraqi troops
into Jordan have thus far been unavailing. (Press)
The British ambassador in Jordan has in-
formed the American ambassador that King Hussain requested
British air support during the 10 October Israeli attack on Qalqiliya.
The Jordanian request was relayed to London and no further action
taken. Next day, however, the RAF squadron in Jordan conducted
demonstration patrols east of the Jordan River, after which King
Hussain protested because the patrols were not extended over West
Jordan. The British ambassador has suggested that the RAF un-
dertake some air activity along the Jordanian-Israeli border as a
demonstration of British interest.
According to the acting chief of Israeli intel-
ligence, Colonel Neeman, the morale and esprit ,of Jordanian
troops engaged in the Qalqiliya action on 10 October were excel-
lent. Israeli forces received the impression that Jordanian troops
had overcome their fear of night fighting--long a major weakness
of Arab forces. As a result of talks with Colonel Ne'eman, the
16 Oct 56
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American army attach�n Tel Aviv believes that the attack was
not a complete success for the Israelis and that casualties must
have been substantially greater than admitted by the government.,
The Israeli high command, according to
Colonel Neeman, is aware that a planning team has been prepar-
ing plans for the possible introduction of Syrian forces into
northern Jordan in the area adjacent to Lake Tiberias. Any
multilateral Arab military intervention in Jordan would create
very strong pressures in Israel or a military response.
Although the Qalqiliya raid offers a new ex-
cuse to cancel the Jordan lower house elections, King Hussain
and the cabinet are reported still determined to proceed with the
voting. The recent Israeli raids have strengthened the support
of the pro-Egyptian extremists, and weakened the chances of mod-
erate or pro-Western candidates. If the elections are held as
planned, Hussain is probably counting on the presence of Iraqi
troops to support government efforts to limit ultranationalist gai
(For another report dealing with the Arab-
Israeli situation, see item 1, Po 3. )
10 Oct 51'
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