CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/02/20

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03023209
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13
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February 25, 2020
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February 27, 2020
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February 20, 1959
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sere Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 �117W-414Mliti� NNW 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 20 February 1959 copy NO. t�-� 41 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN /DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CI Assty- - ------ 1 DEC1.ASrn) CLASS. CHAN!.7-.1,r) iv! r A I I\ NEXT REVIEW DA �E: AUTIVIVr -2 - -- � ---------- DAT,.. ___�_y REVIEWER: _ -T-010-SEC-RET- Ii Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Mb. ����� .1=6. AM. Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 011% 0111% TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 20 FEBRUARY 1959 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR - GMAIC comments on 17 Feb- ruar_vHICBM launching. Peiping pressing for resumption of International Control Commission in Laos. IL ASIA-AFRICA Arabs incensed by "threat" of increased Jewish emigration from bloc to Israel. South Korean political crisis continues; Rhee using police to keen opposition suppressed. Pakistan - Funds lacking for economic development; government's popular sup- port in jeopardy. III. THE WEST Guatemala - Ydigoras government los- ing strength. Panama - Demonstrations may presage coup attempt; National Guard, however, seen loyal to President. I TOP SECRET r /1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 %re CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 20 February 1959 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR; The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee has assessed the information which has become available since the ICBM firing from Tyura Tam on 17 Feb- ruary. This review confirmed that the operation culminated in a Successful launching of a test ICBM which reached the Kamchatka area. GMAIC concluded as follows: --itd "The precise test objectives of the launch are unknown. However, considering the lengthy count- down procedure, the amount of telemetry equipment utilized, the number of instrumentation stations ac- tive both in the rangehead and impact areas, and the extent of the upper-air reporting in the impact area, we believe that it was for research and development purposes." Communist China - Laos: Reacting to Laotian Premier Phoui's statement of 11 February, Communist China's foreign minister has appealed to the Geneva cochairmen--Britain and the USSR--to "check" Laotian refusal to remain bound by the Geneva agreements. Peiping's intensified propaganda on the subject suggests it hopes to stimulate international sup- port for the Communists' legal position and to prod India, in its capacity as chairman of the International Control Commis- sion, to call for the reconvening of the commission in Laos. (Page 1) VA Ii / / A Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 202/02/21 C03023209 lkoS IL ASIA-AFRICA Israel-Bloc-UAR: Increased Jewish emigration from Rumania to Israel and a public statement by Israeli Prime Minister Ben-Gurion that there may also be emigration from the Soviet Union have caused a strong reaction in the Arab states. The government-controlled press in the UAR has branded the migration as an "imperialist plot" against the Arabs, and has warned the Soviet Union that if it permits the Jewish exodus, it will be committing an "unforgivable crime." (Page 2) South Korea: The South Korean internal political crisis continues. It stems from the Rhee administration's use of force on 24 December to enact legislation aimed at repress- ing the opposition Democratic party. Democratic party efforts to promote local opposition to the legislation are being suppressed by the police. On 18 February, Democratic assemblymen walked out on the opening day of the new National Assembly session. The administration may hope to divert attention from the continuing intern .l ation clisnutp with innnn ' 'Pakistan: A recent survey ot Pakistan's imanciai posi- tion by the Ayub government indicates that Karachi--even after having cut defense expenditures--does not have the funds to complete the economic development projects now under way. It believes, however, it must expand the eco- nomic development program to retain popular support. Fi- nance Minister Shoaib, who is scheduled to arrive in Wash- ington on 22 February, probably will claim that the govern- ment's energetic fiscal and economic reforms and irmra- Western Dolicv entitle it to increased foreign aid. 20 Feb 59 DAILY BRIEF ii TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 III. THE WEST Guatemala: he government of President Ydigoras has lost considerable strength in the face of a worsening economic situation and a number of political scandals in the administra- tion. Plotting against Ydigoras has recently increased. The President informed the US ambassador on 18 February that he may have to "crack down in a dictatorial manner" and indicated that he intends to reshuffle his cabinet-) (Page 4) Panama: EA Panamanian radio commentator who led several thousand demonstrators in the seizure of Panama City's munic- ipal building on 18 February has called for a 48-hour general strike to protest against administrative corruption and the eco, nomic condition of the country. Powerful opposition groups are known to possess substantial caches of arms and to have been waiting for a public demonstration which they could attempt to turn into a coup against President de la Guardia. The success of such an attempt would hinge on the National Guard, which still appears loyal to De la Guardia (Page 5) IV. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS AND ESTIMATES (Available during the preceding week) Present Trends in Communist China. February 1959. NIE 13-2-59. 10 Estimate of the World Situation. NIE 100-59. 17 Febru- ary 1959. 20 Feb 59 DAILY BRIEF iii TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 --erc--imr, I N..07 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Peiping Calls for Reconvening of International Control Commission in Laos A statement by Chinese Communist Foreign Minister Chen Yi on 18 February and an editorial in the People's Daily on the following day call on the Geneva cochairmen--Britain and the USSR--to "check" Laos' refusal to be bound by the 1954 Geneva accords. On 19 February, Peiping sent letters to the cochairmen charging that the United States had introduced large numbers of military personnel and arms into Laos. Chen claimed that Laos was "fully bound" by the accords, and the People's Daily editorial insisted that Laotian Prime Minister Phoui Sananikone has failed to provide "any legal basis" for his opposition to the operations of the International Control Commission (ICC) in Laos. Pei- ping's intensified propaganda suggests that it hopes to stimulate international support for the Communists' legal position and to prod India, in its capacity as chairman of the ICC, to call for the reconvening of the commission in Laos. The delay of one week before Chen Yi's statement, follow- ing a mild initial Communist reaction to Laos' action, suggests that Peiping was reluctant to attack Phoui strongly on the mat- ter in the hope that India would act on its own initiative to revive the ICC. The Chinese Communists will probably avoid military threats in their propaganda in order not to arouse apprehension among Southeast Asian countries. The People's Daily also belatedly attacked Laos' permission for the establishment of a Chinese Nationalist consulate in Vien- tiane--granted last November--as a "deliberate provocation and extremely unfriendly act." Eihe strong bloc reaction is likely to reinforce British and French views, already expressed, that Laos' renunciation was precipitous. It probably will also raise additional doubts in Britain and France as to the feasibility of introducing US mil- itary training personnel into Laos:-1 20 Feb 59 -SECRET- CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 7020-2-0-2& C03023209 %re 'we IL ASIA-AFRICA Arab Reactions to Increased Israeli Immigration Increased Israeli immigration from Rumania and a public statement by Israeli Prime Minister Ben-Gurion that the USSR may permit some of its Jews to emigrate have brought forth a strong reaction from the Arab states. The government-con- trolled press in the UAR has branded the migration as an "im- perialist plot" against the Arabs, and has warned the Soviet Union that if it permits the Jewish exodus, it will be commit- ting an "unforgivable crime." There are 3,000,000 Jews in the USSR. Plans are under way to coordinate Arab efforts to oppose the exodus of Rumanian Jews, which began to increase last fall and which probably now involves the departure of 200-300 Jews daily. Dissatisfaction with private American financing of the migration has been expressed. Israel's aim in increasing its population, the Arabs contend, is to expand its territory at Arab expense. Arab League Secretary General Hassouna, asserting that the migration is "the greatest peril faced by the Arabs since the creation of the State of Israel," indicated the problem would be considered at the league's meeting in Cairo on 2 March. Lebanon's Prime Minister Karame and Jordan's Prime Minister Rifai reportedly are contacting other Arab countries regarding a common stand on the question. The Rumanian Foreign Ministry) in reply to an official UAR protest which it obviously expected, stated that the emigration has been permitted for "humanitarian" reasons. The Bucharest regime apparently is seeking to resolve its perennial problem of anti-Semitism as well as to reduce a potentially troublesome minority group which has resisted assimilation. The desire to find responsible positions in industry and the professions for Communist-educated ethnic Rumanians is also a factor. -e&NR-E,EALTIAL,- 20 Feb 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Nue Pakistani Government Increasingly Concerned About, Financial Difficulties The Ayub government, following an investigation of Pak- istan's financial position, has informed the US Embassy in Karachi that Pakistan's financial condition is considerably weak- er than previously estimated. Foreign-exchange reserves�in- cluding gold--amount to only $162,000,000, the lowest figure on record for this time of year. The foreign-exchange gap for the first half of 1959 is estimated to be at least $30,000,000 and may be considerably more. The government--despite sharp cuts in civil and defense ex- penditures�does not have the funds to complete economic devel- opment projects now under way or to provide adequate imports of raw materials for private industry. If imports are held at the present level, the shortage of consumer goods will make preven- tion of inflation extremely difficult. Karachi believes its ability to hold prices below the levels which prevailed before martial law was imposed last October and to expand the economic devel- opment program are key factors in its ability to retain popular support. dioresident Ayub reportedly is increasingly concerned about the economic situation and wants more economic aid even at th expense of defense support z The high priority his government is placing on economic development is illustrated by its decision to cut defense imports by about 40 percent. It has also canceled plans to purchase three submarines and is scrapping the navy's only cruiser4 Pakistan has secured a $28,000,000 long-term loan from the United Kingdom and has arranged a $25,000,000 stand-by credit from the International Monetary Fund. Finance Minister Shoaib, who is scheduled to arrive in Washington on 22 February, prob- ably will claim that his government's energetic fiscal and eco- nomic reforms and firm pro-Western policy entitle it to increased US aid. 20 Feb 59 SECRET- CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 *ftif III. THE WEST Position of 'Guatemalan President Weakening dhe Guatemalan political situation continues to deteriorate. The extreme venality among President Ydigoras' closest advisers, including members of his family, is receiving increasing public attention. This, combined with the President's recent political blunders and a worsening economic situation due in part to a de- cline in income from coffee exports, has so weakened his posi- tion that his government may fall unless he acts quickly to clean it up. Plotting to oust him is increasing among several groups ranging from the extreme right to the moderate left and now ap- pears more widespread than at any time since he assumed office last March.-) CYdigoras apparently realizes his danger and told the US am- bassador on 18 February that he may have to "crack down in a dictatorial manner." He also indicated that he intends to reshuf- fle his cabinet, dropping some of the members most identified by the public with grafia tWhile there appears to be no immediate danger of a coup, since various opposition leaders are believed to be working at cross-purposes and the army remains loyal to the President, continuation of the present trend could within a relatively short time lead to his ouster. Key army officers, the ultimate locus of political power, have proven responsive to public pressure in the pasty and their support of Ydigoras would probably be with- drawn if they became convinced that the President had lost his political and public backingl CONFIDENTIAL 20 Feb 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Ir� 111 WI MI Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Nov Uni'est in Panama May Be Exploited by Opposition Forces Panamanian radio commentator who led several thousand demonstrators in the seizure of Panama City's municipal build- ing on 18 February has called for a 48-hour general strike to protest against administrative corruption and economic condi- tions. This may give President de la Guardia's strong opposi- tion a pretext to try a long-awaited coup:1 &he commentator, who specializes in sensationalistic and inflammatory broadcasts, is not known to be allied with any of the several opposition groups which have been smuggling arms into the country. However, he has been attacking De la Guardia's inability to control corrupt officials and has criticized the Na- tional Guard, chief source of political strength in Panama. His recent calls to rise against the corrupt oligarchy which has ruled the country for many years have probably influenced the thousands of poor and unemployed concentrated in Panama City:1 De la Guardia's main opposition is from cynical groups with- in the oligarchy whose eagerness to gain more control of the country's economy by taking over the administration has kept Panama in a political ferment for months. These groups have previously exploited for their own ends demonstrations by dis- contented crowds and may hope to capitalize on this latest ex- pression of dissatisfaction] {:T. he President ordered the unpopular National Guard not to interfere with the demonstrators and has suspended the municipal council until an investigation of the charges is made. The guard is still considered loyal to De la Guardia and is probably capa- ble of maintaining him in office:j 20 Feb 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 T A TA Aa NNW THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209 TOP SECRET An% �TOP�SECRET� Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023209