CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/12/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03019100
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: December 3, 1955

Approved for Release: 2019/09/16 C03019100
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3 December 1955
Copy No� 100
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
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CL/SS. CHANCED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE'
AUTH: FIB 70-2 tmtia
DATE: , tti,10.3 FIVIEWER;
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CONTENTS
1. HUNGARIAN MORALE AT LOW EBB (page 3).
2. BURMESE COMMUNISTS PUBLICLY OFFER TO
SURRENDER (page 4).
3. NEW FIGHTING IN LAOS MAY BE IMMINENT (page 5
4. PREMIER ADMITS POSSIBILITY OF ARMED CONFLICT
IN BANGKOK (page 6).
5. BRITISH AUTHORITIES IN SINGAPORE CONSIDER
SUSPENDING CONSTITUTION (page 7).
6. ECUADOR MAY BREAK RELATIONS WITH
CZECHOSLOVAKIA (page 8).
7. ARMY MAY SEIZE CONTROL IN ECUADOR (page 9).
8. BRAZILIAN LABOR PARTY MAY UNDERTAKE PURGE
OF COMMUNISTS (page 10).
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 11)
3 Dec 55
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1. HUNGARIAN MORALE AT LOW EBB
The American legation in Budapest
reports that recent international and
domestic developments, including the doc-
umented Soviet announcement that the
USSR possesses the H-bomb, "have plunged the Hungarian
public into the most dejected state of mind observed in
many months." The people fear that the stress on indus-
try at the recent National Assembly meeting means that
they will have to make greater individual sacrifices. They
feel that the two Geneva conferences this year have dem-
onstrated that the iron curtain is still firmly in place.
The legation is concerned over the pos-
sibility that the Hungarian people, their hopes for libera-
tion shattered, will become resigned to living under Com-
munism and will increase their labor effort and their
support of the regime's program in order to better their
own living -standards.
Comment Party leader Rakosi's success during
the past six months in tightening party,
labor and civil discipline, coupled with the loss of popu-
lar hope for liberation, has led to a sharp drop in public
restiveness and resistance. This was particularly evident
in the lack of peasant opposition to the regime's crop col-
lection this fall.
3 Dec 55
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2. BURMESE COMMUNISTS PUBLICLY OFFER TO
SURRENDER
The insurgent Burma Communist
Party, in a move coinciding with the
arrival of Bulganin and Khrushchev,
has reportedly made a public offer to
surrender under the following conditions; (1) that Burma
not enter into any pact with the Anglo-American bloc;
(2) that all political prisoners be released after a certain
date; and (3) that Communist parties and "other Demo-
cratic groups in Burma" be accorded full constitutional
freedoms.
The military position of the Burma
Communist Party, the only significant insurgent Commu-
nist group in Burma, has been increasingly deteriorating.
The re-emergence of this party as a political entity would
permit the Communists to broaden their country-wide
political network and thus improve their prospects in the
April national elections.
3 Dec 55
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3. NEW FIGHTING IN LAOS MAY BE IMMINENT
Laotian government officials antic-
ipate an early offensive by the Com-
munist Pathet Lao designed to inter-
fere with the National Assembly
elections on 25 December. Royal
fcirces, for their part, are considering military action
of their own shortly after the elections, in an attempt to
re-establish control in the north; they would, however,
respond vigorously to any Communist attack prior to the
elections.
The American army attache in Vien-
tiane has received reports of an increased flow of ammu-
nition to the Pathet Lao and of training with heavy weapons,
possibly indicating plans for an offensive, He believes,
however, that Pathet morale and operational capability
are at their lowest level in months, citing reports that
battalions are understrength, short of food, and in some
cases politically unreliable, and that Pathet forces are
facing increasing resistance from the local populace.
The attach�elieves royal government
troops could--assuming concentration of their forces, an
assured airlift resupply capability, and nonintervention by
Viet Minh units--successfully destroy or drive out the Pathet
Lao.
It is probable, however, that in any ac-
tion that threatened to destroy the present Communist hold
over northern Laos, the Viet Minh would commit sufficient
troops to maintain the Pathet position.
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4. PREMIER ADMITS POSSIBILITY OF ARMED CONFLICT
IN BANGKOK
Premier Phibun acknowledged to the
American charg�n 1 December the
possibility that the present political
crisis in Bangkok may lead to armed
coniuct tie said the recent army alerts followed threat-
ening letters to General Sarit, allegedly sent by support-
ers of Police Director General Phao. He did not implicate
Phao directly and denied rumors that the police chief would
leave the country.
In a conversation with the American
army attach�Sarit gave substantially the same explana-
tion for the current uneasiness. He insisted the army
would not be used to settle political disputes as long as
he commanded it.
Comment Phao would probably not be averse to
encouraging fears of assassination by
his gunmen, but it is still questionable whether he is ready
to resort to drastic measures to retrieve his political posi-
tion.
Tension continues high in Bangkok, how-
ever, and armed strife is an ever-present possibility. It
would most likely be initiated by the Phao forces to offset
further moves by Phibun to reduce the police chief's power
and status.
3 Dec 55
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5, BRITISH AUTHORITIES IN SINGAPORE CONSIDER
SUSPENDING CONSTITUTION
The acting chief secretary of the Singa-
pore government has privately in-
formed the American consulate general
that British authorities are considering
suspending the colony's constitution if
e o i ica Si uation continues to deteriorate. He specu-
lated that such action might help the moderate and conserv-
ative political groups to strengthen themselves, while left-
wing elements would be suppressed,
The British official said that Chief
Minister David Marshall recently had wanted to resign be-
cause his government was sustained only by the votes of
British officials in the legislature. He was persuaded,
however, to remain in office and proceed with his visit to
London to discuss greater self-government.
Comment The British would suspend the Singapore
constitution only if necessary to thwart
establishment of a pro-Communist government. Commu-
nist influence has been growing in Singapore for some time.
Marshall can be expected to be attacked
for "selling out" when he returns from London--no matter
what he achieves. Such attacks might force his resignation
and bring on new elections in which the Communists would
probably make substantial gains.
3 Dec 55 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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6. ECUADOR MAY BREAK RELATIONS WITH
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Comment
The Ecuadoran government is seri-
ously thinking of breaking relations
with Czechoslovakia, according to
the Ecuadoran minister of the treas-
ury. The minister told American
charg�ieland on 30 November that
his government was convinced that
the Czech legation in Quito was "up
to its ears" in the recent student riots.
Ecuador, following repeated Czech re-
quests, agreed in September 1954 to
the appointment of a career diplomat to the Czech legation
in Quito which previously had been headed by an individual
the Ecuadorans considered "more or less harmless."
Ecuador appeared to be motivated primarily by the desire
to acquire arms-
Over the past year
Czechoslovakia has expanded its diplomatic and trade rep-
resentation in Ecuador.
One of the two professors whose trans-
fer led to the recent student disturbances in Quito is the
finance secretary of the executive committee of the
Ecuadoran Communist Party.
The only other country of the Sino-
Soviet bloc with which Ecuador has diplomatic relations
is Poland, whose minister in Mexico is accredited to
Quito.
3 Dec 55
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7. ARMY MAY SEIZE CONTROL IN ECUADOR
Defense Minister Pedro Menendez
Gilbert told a large group of army
officers on 30 November that the army
must take over in Ecuador
Menendez said that the
recent student riots indicate political deterioration through-
out the country.
Comment
There have been numerous reports of
army plots during the past year. The
considerable dissension in the armed forces, the rise in
popular unrest as a result of the student riots, and the
jockeying for next June's presidential elections heighten
the possibility of a revolution. Velasco was ousted from
the presidency twice before--in 1935 and 1947--because
of his dictatorial measures.
3 Dec 55
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8. BRAZILIAN LABOR PARTY MAY UNDERTAKE PURGE
OF COMMUNISTS
the
American embassy in Rio de Janeiro
has reported that moderate elements
in the Brazilian Labor Party, led by
party vice president Souza Naves, are working toward an
eventual purge of Communists and sympathizers from
party ranks. Joao
Goulart, party head and vice president-elect of Brazil,
"appeared agreeable" to such action.
The embassy notes that a statement
of 29 November by Goularit's press agent predicted a
showdown between Goulart and the Communists. The
statement warned that Goulart must either oppose the
Communists or lose his labor support to them. The
embassy believes this statement was made in the hope
of making Goulart less objectionable to the military and
to conservatives.
Comment Goulart has in the past, particularly
when he was labor minister under
Vargas and during the recent election, appeared willing
to work with Communists. It is probable, however,
that he would take an anti-Communist stand now if con-
vinced that the advantages to him would far outweigh the
disadvantages.
The press statement reported above
may be part of an effort to remove the pro-Communist
stigma from the incoming Brazilian administration,which
is expected to make an early approach for sizable US
financial aid.
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 2 December)
mall-scale fighting between Egyptian
and Israeli forces occurred in the southwest Gaza strip
area on 1 December. Each side has charged the other
with opening fire.
Recent statements by top-level
Israeli officials that Israel's chances of winning a war
against the Arabs are rapidly diminishing and that Israel
"could fall victim to enemy armies within 48 to 72 hours"
are probably designed to encourage favorable decisions
in the Western world on arms sales and financial contribu-
tions. However, according to the American embassy in
Tel Aviv, the statements have alarmed the Israeli public
and have evoked strong criticism from the press, some
journals accusing the government of preparing the ground
for "a new Munich."
The Jordanian Foreign Ministry has
informed the American embassy in Amman that the politi-
cal committee of the Arab League will meet after 15 Decem-
ber to discuss British prime minister Eden's statement on
Arab-Israeli relations. Despite the mildly favorable re-
action of several Arab states to Eden's 9 November speech,
this meeting will probably produce little more than a call
for implementation of the 1947 UN resolutions on Palestine.
3 Dec 55
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