CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017660
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 21, 1955

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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
21 January 1955
79
Copy
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
No.
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sue Nei
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Molotov implies Communist China will release American fliers
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet journal clarifies line on heavy industrial development
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Serious disturbances foreseen if South Vietnam's private armies
are demobilized (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on Arab League crisis (page 5).
5. Comment on possible dynastic struggle in Libya (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
6, East Germany reportedly will claim jurisdiction over Western
commercial use of air corridors (page 6).
7. Serious cattle disease reported in East Germany (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. West German Socialists reportedly will drop opposition to Paris
accords after ratification (page 8).
LATE ITEM
9. Large concentration of boats noted near Tachens and Matsus
(page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Molotov implies Communist China will release American fliers:
Foreign Minister Molotov gave the im-
pression to Indonesian ambassador
Subandrio, who raised the question with
him about a week ago, that the Ameri-
can fliers neia by uommunist China would eventually be released.
Molotov added that "we released our prisoners," apparently re-
ferring to the Americans recently turned over to American author-
ities in Berlin.
Comment: In mid-December the Soviet
delegation at the UN was reportalo have told other delegations
that the Soviet Union was "unhappy" about the Chinese action and
was using its influence to get Peiping to release the fliers. Mos-
cow probably considered that the Chinese action detracted from
the USSR's' Conciliatory pose.
Chou En-lai's statements to UN secretary
general Hammarskj old indicated that Peiping might release at
least some of the 15 American airmen within the next few months
if there were no attempt to "intimidate" the regime. It is possi-
ble, however, that the Chinese Communists intend instead to hold
the airmen for unofficial bargaining, seeking American compro-
mises on larger questions in exchange for the airmen's release.
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet journal clarifies line on heavy industrial development:
The lead editorial in the latest issue of
Party Life, journal of the central com-
mittee of the Communist Party, is seen
by the American embassy in Moscow as
the clearest indication yet that there has recently been serious
high-level discussion of the relative priorities to be accorded
various sectors of the economy. The editorial suggests that the
recent press emphasis on the high priority to be accorded heavy
industry has disappointed hopes for increased supplies of con-
sumers' goods.
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The editorial may constitute a warning
that opposition to this formula is inadvisable, since it criticizes
those who do not support or co-operate with a number of policies
of the Soviet government. It singles out for attack the idea that
"development in all possible ways of heavy industry is now in
contradiction with the economic laws of socialism." Several prom-
inent theoretical writers are identified as holding erroneous views.
Comment: This editorial appears to con-
firm earlier speculation that divergent points of view on economic
priorities, noted in Pravda and Izvestia in late December, re-
flected high-level discussion and possibly controversy regarding
such priorities. Any implicit contradiction between the "new
course" policies and the requirements of continued rapid devel-
opment of heavy industry has now apparently been resolved.
Any downward revision of "new course"
plans for 1955 resulting from such agreement would probably be
relatively small and limited to manufactured consumers' goods,
since the Soviet press has continued to emphasize the importance
of both agriculture and housing.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Serious disturbances foreseen if South Vietnam b private armies
are Temobilized:
A French officer in contact with Trinh
Minh The states that the dissident Cao
Dai leader is deeply disturbed over
American plans to support only a reduced
Vietnamese national army. He is said to
is troops and those of other sect leaders
will result in their breaking up into bandit groups to prey upon
the countryside.
The French officer has proposed instead
that the United States also give assistance to an auxiliary force
composed of troops from these private armies in order to keep
them from banditry and to provide a "screening force" while the
nucleus of a national army battle corps is being trained.
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Comment: Trinh Minh The and some
other sectarian army leaders have recently made overtures to
have their troops integrated into the Vietnamese army. Although
this would solve the immediate problem of troop pay, previously
met in part by the French, the Diem government must find a
more permanent solution if it is to avoid serious disturbances
after the reduction of the military establishment.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on Arab League crisis:
the Iraqi and Egyptian governments
are about to engage in what may develop
into the bitterest test of strength in the
Arab world since World War IL
The struggle has been precipitated by
Iraq b decision to conclude a defense
treaty with Turkey "in the very near
future." Iraq thus challenges Egyptian leadership of the Arab
League and disregards the league's ban against Arab collabora-
tion with Western defense planning.
Iraq shows no sign of backing down on
its defense decision despite the strong hostility of Egypt and
Saudi Arabia. The king, crown prince and six ex-prime minis-
ters of Iraq have indicated their support of the position taken
by Prime Minister Nun i Said.
Egypt has summoned an emergency meet-
ing of the Arab League for 22 January to consider the situation.
At the same time Cairob press and radio are conducting a cam-
paign to unseat Nun i Said.
There is little likelihood that the league
meeting will resolve Iraqi-Egyptian differences, especially since
Nun i has refused to attend the meeting.
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411111111r
5. Comment on possible dynastic struggle in Libya:
of behind-the-scene political
maneuvers among the Libyan tribes by
members of the Sharif branch of the
royal family, as well as by Salah Buweisir,
'Racier oi tne parliamentary opposition, suggest that a grave dynas-
tic struggle may erupt in Libya in the near future.
King Idriss. has
been generally co-operative with the United States and Ben Halim
has been outspokenly friendly.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. East Germany reportedly will claim jurisdiction over Western
commercial use of air corridors:
The East German Foreign Ministry
reportedly concluded during the latter
part of 1954 that the Soviet grant of
sovereignty had given East Germany
jurisdiction over its air space and that
agreements for commercial use of the air corridors into Berlin
would have to be negotiated between the governments of East
Germany and the Western countries concerned.
The ministry is also reported to have
determined, however, on the basis of its study of the effects of
sovereignty on the status of the Western powers in Berlin, that
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the Western allies have a right to maintain a garrison in West
Berlin and to use the air corridors for military tr_msport to sup-
ply this garrison.
Comment: Any attempt by East Germany
to assert jurisdiction over the air corridors would probably be
aimed primarily at forcing Western diplomatic recognition. It is
believed that several countries, such as the Scandinavian and Bene-
lux states, would be receptive to East German proposals to con-
clude reciprocal air agreements, though they would seek to nego-
tiate on a nongovernmental level.
7. Serious cattle disease reported in East Germany:
An outbreak of a serious cattle disease
which is believed by West German veteri-
narians to be rinderpest is reported in
the northeastern and southern parts of
East Germany.
Comment: According to the West Ger-
man press, the East Germ�If-1 jovernment has admitted the pres-
ence of a virus disease but has denied that it is rinderpest, a
highly contagious and usually fatal cattle disease.
Although a conclusive diagnosis is not
yet possible, there is considerable evidence that the disease is
rinderpest. This disease, if not quickly eradicated, would proba-
bly result in severe restrictions on international trade and commerce.
In this event, it is considered likely that Soviet bloc propaganda would
accuse the United States of biological warfare against East German
livestock. An official East German broadcast of 3 December, in re-
porting that a cattle disease which frequently resulted in death of
the livestock had broken out in the Leipzig area, blamed it on "our
opponents." (Concurred in by OSI)
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. West German Socialists reportedly will drop opposition to Paris
accords after ratification:
Erich 011enhauer, chairman of the West
German opposition Social Democratic
Party (SPD), has stated that
the SPD will feel forced to drop its oppo-
cords once they are ratified and to urge young
men to comply with remilitarzation laws
011enhauer is reported to have indicated
that SPD efforts after ratification of the Paris accords will be di-
rected toward achieving a "democratic', defense establishment and
full citizenship rights for conscripts. ,
Regarding the Paris accords, 011enhauer
has preferred to see no constitutional argument against ratifica-
tion and Herbert Wehner, SPD foreign policy adviser, has com-
mented that the objections to the accords do not represent consti-
tutional issues.
Comment: Although the SPD does not
seriously hope to block ratification of the Paris accords and is in
fact planning to exert positive influence on implementing legisla-
tion, the party is not likely to cease its propaganda against rearm-
ament. The Socialists are trying to make an indelible impression
on the West German public that they oppose rearmament because
it will result in an end to all hopes of reunification. They intend
to make this their major issue in the 1957 elections.
LATE ITEM
9. Large concentration of boats noted near Tachens and Matsus:
Some 22000 boats were observed on
20 January near the Tachen Islands
and another group of more than 1,000
boats was seen in the vicinity of the
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Matsu Islands to the south,
No unusual concentration was
noted near the Quemoys.
Comment: The reported concentrations
may merely represent fishing fleets. The Chinese Communists
are dependent on such craft, however, for major amphibious opera-
tions, and the sightings may indicate preparations for another in-
vasion.
Meanwhile, Peiping radio has appealed
directly to General Liu Lien-i, Nationalist commander in the
Tachens, to give up, promising him and his troops good treatment
if they defect. General Liu's morale has been reported to be very
low.
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