CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017655
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 19, 1954

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19 November 1954
Copy No. SU
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. .20
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE' ___20
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: _045.0__ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Nomura emerging as compromise candidate to succeed Yoshida
(Daze 3)
2.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3.
SOUTH ASIA
4.
5. Fear of USSR apparently still strong factor in Afghan politics
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Nun i Said opens campaign for greater military aid (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Paris embassy discusses outlook for Mendes-France government
(page 7).
8. French Communists seen focusing attacks on government's North
Africa policy (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Comment on Chilean cabinet crisis (page 9).
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FAR EAST
Nomura emerging as compromise candidate to succeed Yoshida:
Former admiral Kichisaburo Nomura,
Japan's ambassador to Washington at the
time of Pearl Harbor. will.
ultimately be acceptable to all conservative factions as a compro-
mise choice for prime minister in the event Yoshida is forced out
of office. Nomura's backers point out that Yoshida likes him,
Nomura's strong stand on rearmament and the constitutional re-
vision question appeals to all elements of the opposition Progres-
sives, and he enjoys the confidence of the business world.
His principal supporters, who include
former prime minister Hitoshi Ashida, are motivated by a belief
that new elections would benefit only the Socialists and that all
possible steps should be taken to avoid a Diet dissolution.
Comment: Nomura's chances will depend
on whether a stalemate develops between more prominent pro-
Yoshida and anti-Yoshida candidates, as seems possible. Ashida
no longer enjoys great political influence, and Nomura's upper
house conservative support does not count for much, since the
lower house is much more powerful under the constitution.
Nomura enjoys wide prestige, and is
considered pro-American, but he lacks a personal political organi-
zation and would have difficulty controlling factional rivalries
over the long pull.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
ASIA
3.
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SOUTH ASIA
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5. Fear of USSR apparently still strong factor in Afghan politics:
Afghan ministers at a recent cabinet
meeting vigorously and almost unani-
mously objected to renewing the con-
tract for the Morrison-Knudsen Afghan-
istan Company, an American construction firm which has been
engaged on economic development projects in southern Afghan-
istan, has informed Ambassador Ward in Kabul.
Approval was obtained only after Foreign Minister Nairn, "in
tears and on his knees before Prime Minister Daud," made an im-
passioned plea to the effect that failure to retain American inter-
ests in the country would eventually force it to become a Soviet
satellite.
Naim told Ward on 16 November that
cabinet approval had been granted the day before.
Comment: If the account of the meeting
is true, it is a good indication that fear of the USSR is still a
decisive element in Afghan politics. There is a possibility,
however, that the above story is designed to develop a keen Ameri-
can government interest in Afghanistan.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Nun i Said opens campaign for greater military aid:
Prime Minister Nuri- Said told Ambassa-
dor Gallman on 17 November that Iraq
needs the same kind of military equip-
ment that is going to Turkey and Pakistan.
Nun i eclared that Iraq urgently needs six tanks for training pur-
poses and that his military advisers estimate $140,000,000 will
be required to modernize the Iraqi army.
Nun i told Gallman that he did not care
whether Iraq's needs were met by Britain or the United States.
He said that Iraq is now spending as much on defense as it can
without diverting funds from its economic and social development
program.
Comment: Nun's request is apparently
not only the opening gun in a campaign for enlarging the $10,000,000
American aid program but also is the real beginning of Nun's mar
neuvering on Middle East defense. Former prime minister Jamali
frequently emphasized that Iraq could not move ahead on area
defense without American aid in an amount that would impress the
Iraqi public.
Iraq's defense budget for 1954-55 is
$40,000,000--26 percent of its total regular budget. The first
shipment of American equipment under the aid agreement is sched-
uled to arrive on 22 December. Iraqi officials have said they fear
a popular outcry against the "rather small" size of the American
program.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Paris embassy discusses outlook for Mendes-France government:
The American embassy in Paris now be-
lieves that Premier Mendes-France may
be opposed by a majority in the National
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Assembly on the North African issue. The embassy also notes
that his Indochina policy will be attacked by Popular Republicans
and Gaullists, and that he faces difficulty in the current budget
debate. Nevertheless, his position will likely be safe until the
Paris agreements are ratified, and would probably be strengthened
by an agreement on a firm date for Big-Four talks.
There is much speculation in Paris that
in any event, Mendes- France will fall in a few months, probably
by March.
Comment: The growing number of attacks
on the premier from all political parties indicates that the assem-
bly is overcoming the inertia it has heretofore exhibited in the face
of his dynamic approach. Any sign of indecisiveness on the pre-
mier's part could lead to his fall.
8. French Communists seen focusing attacks on government's North
Africa policy:
Ambassador Dillon believes the French
Communist Party may be developing the
North African issue into "another Indo-
china" as far as French domestic politics
are concerned. The party apparently expects the government's
parliamentary support to be divided whether the premier decides
to repress disturbances with a strong hand or to appease the North
African nationalists.
The Communists have avoided strong
attacks on the premier personally, possibly because of his great
popularity, even among Communist voters.
Communist leaders have publicly admitted
that party propaganda media have recently lost ground, and close
observers believe that "some of the more illustrious heads" in the
French Communist Party may roll soon, probably when the Paris
agreements are ratified.
Comment: The French Communist Party
had been accepted as an ally by the other anti-EDC forces but has
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been relatively isolated again since the Paris agreements were
drafted. The party can now be expected to redouble its efforts to
play up the North African issue, on which it will not be alone in
assembly debates.
- LATIN AMERICA
9. Comment on Chilean cabinet crisis:
20 September.
The entire Chilean cabinet offered their
resignations on 17 November, anticipat-
ing rejection by congress of the state of
siege declared by President Ibanez on
The only two ministers actually replaced by Ibanez,
however, were the ministers of interior and agriculture.
The new interior minister, Arturo Olavar-
ria Bravo, is perhaps the worst enemy of the United States in Chile.
He is also a rabid hater of Communism. As minister of the interior,
he is next in line for the presidency and commands the national po-
lice of some 24,000 men.
Congress' expected rejection of the state
of siege would not offset Ibanez' immediate control of the situation;
it might result in his dissolving congress and ruling by decree.
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