CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/04/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017435
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: April 5, 1955

Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO G G
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AUTH: HR 70-2
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TOP SECRET
5 April 1955
Copy No. 94
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
10 Comment on purge of two Chinese Communist leaders (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on left-wing gains in Singapore elections (page 3).
SOUTH ASIA
3. Comment on Afghan-Pakistani situation (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian prime minister-designate expects short term in office
(page 5).
5. France to continue selling arms to Israel (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Soviet ambassador discusses "normalization" with Tito (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Raab reported to fear partition of Austria if treaty negotiations
fail (page 7).
LATE ITEM
8. Paris wants Diem's powers limited immediately (page 8).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 9)
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FAR EAST
1. Comment on purge of two Chinese Communist leaders:
Peiping's communiqu�f 4 April on the
Chinese Communist Party conference of
21-31 March confirms the fall of two
Chinese Communist Party leaders who had once been high in Mao
Tse-tung's favor but have been out of the news for more than a
year.
The expulsion from the party of polit-
buro member ICao ICang and organization chief Jao Shu-shih is
the first serious disciplinary action known to have been taken by
Mao since 1938. Their fall results from a methodical "reorgani-
zation" of the party begun in 1951 and a drive, started in early
1954, to eliminate dissension among the party leaders.
Both Kao and Jao, who had been regional
leaders in Manchuria and East China, respectively, before tak-
ing important posts at the national level, were apparently guilty
of trying to build "independent kingdoms." It is not believed that
either fell as a result of disputes over military policy.
. Comment on left-win
SOUTHEAST ASIA
ains in Singapore elections:
The victory of left-wing elements in the
Singapore elections on 2 April presages
increased difficulties for the government
in carrying out anti-Communist measures.
The new Singapore legislative assembly,
in which elected members for the first
time outnumber appointed members, will
probab y be more sympathetic toward student and labor groups,
over which the Communists are exercising increasing influence.
The Labor Front won 10 of the 25 elected
seats, and is expected to form a minority government. It has
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demanded an investigation of emergency security laws, with a
view toward their repeal or revision. The Front will be sup-
ported in this by two other groups--the apparently Communist-
supported People's Action Party and a Malay-Chinese alliance,
which together won six seats. Final decisions on defense,
finance and internal security, however, will remain in the hands
of the governor.
Elections next July in the Federation
of Malaya�which is administered separately from Singapore--
are expected to result in government difficulties throughout
Malaya,since leading federation parties are also talking of re-
vising emergency laws and extending amnesty to the Commu-
nist terrorists.
SOUTH ASIA
3. Comment on Afghan-Pakistani situation:
The anti-Pakistani demonstrations in
several Afghan towns between 30 March
and 1 April will probably force the
royal family to decide within the next
few days whether to discipline Prime
Minister Daud, who is also a member
of the family, or to surrender to him
on the Pushtoonistan question.
Pakistan's insistence that the formal
apology and promise of compensation for the looting of the
Pakistani embassy in Kabul on 30 March are inadequate also
lends some urgency to the decision on Daud.
Though Kabul probably cannot accede
to all of Karachi's demands, the government has forbidden further
demonstrations and has announced that demonstrators will be
fired on.
Daud's influential uncles, Shah Wall. an
and Shah Mahmud Khan,have condemned his actions and are said
to have predicted that he will be dismissed. Daud's brother,
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Foreign Minister Naim, seems to have been genuinely surprised
and angered by the week-end rioting. The king, who was absent
on a hunting trip on 30 March resumabl also QppsesDaudk
actions.
The government is probably aware that if
Daud continues as prime minister, additional unrest within Afghan-
istan, as well as armed clashes with Pakistan, may be expected.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian prime minister- designate expects short term in office:
Minister of Court Ala, designated by
the Shah to become Iranian prime min-
ister upon Zahedi's resignation, has
stated that he would do little more than
install a cab ne e ore eaving for Europe for medical attention,
according to the American embassy in Tehran.
Minister of Finance Amini, who is Ala's
choice for prime minister, would be acting prime minister dur-
ing Ala's absence.
Comment: Ala's tenure as prime min-
ister is likely to be short and to be marked by the increased ac-
tivity of all political factions, as well as greater participation of
the Shah in government affairs.
Amini, who handled the recent oil nego-
tiations with conspicuous success, would be in line for the pre-
miership if he performed satisfactorily during Ala's absence.
He would, however, be handicapped by the opposition of many
influential politicians.
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5. France to continue selling arms to Israel:
France will continue to sell arms
to Israel in line with its policy of main-
taining a "balance of strength" between
Israel and the Arab states.
The Foreign Ministry said its sources
show that the Arabs are now militarily superior to Israel. Fur-
thermore, this superiority will become "more pronounced" in
1955, since Britain plans to send more arms to the Arab states
and the United States has undertaken a program that "will double"
Iraq's military potential.
Comment: There is a growing split
between France on the one hand and Britain and the United States
on the other over arms shipments to the Middle East.
France wants tripartite policy aimed at
maintaining a numerical equality in armaments between Israel
and the Arab states. The United States and Britain, however,
have urged that other factors must be taken into consideration.
There is some reason to believe that
France is making shipments to Israel without informing the tri-
partite Near East Arms Co-ordinating Committee. This com-
mittee was set up to make certain that the sale of arms to the
area would not result in an arms race or a military imbalance
which might lead to hostilities.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Soviet ambassador discusses "normalization" with Tito:
Soviet ambassador Valkov's interview
with Tito on 28 March was devoted en-
tirely to the question of "continued
normalization" of Yugoslav-Soviet rela-
ons, according to a statement by Yugoslav deputy foreign secre-
tary Micunovic to the British ambassador in Belgrade. Valkov
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reportedly urged acceptance of a Soviet invitation for a parlia-
mentary delegation to visit Moscow, �and Micunovic believes that
his government will adopt a "positive attitude."
American ambassador Riddleberger re-
ports that Yugoslav foreign secretary Popovic is telling foreign
diplomats that the conversation was about the Pravda article
which answered in mild terms Tito's 7 March speech attacking
Soviet handling of normalization. Riddleberger observes that
there is considerable speculation in Belgrade that Valkov brought
"soft answers to Tito's complaints."
Comment: Valkov's sudden trip to
Moscow following Tito's criticisms of Soviet "normalization" tac-
tics and his return to Belgrade just before the interview with Tito
suggest that Yugoslav complaints were an important topic. The
recent editorial exchange between Moscow and Belgrade indicated
that the USSR desired to improve further Yugoslav-USSR relations.
Belgrade's acceptance of the Soviet invi-
tation for an exchange of parliamentary delegations would be con-
sistent with its professed desire of pursuing a policy of "active
coexistence."
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Raab reported to fear partition of Austria if treaty negotiations
fail:
Austrian chancellor. Raab, who is sched-
uled to leave for Moscow on 11 April,
has ambitions to be "the man who got the
Russians out of Austria," according to
assa or Thompson in Vienna.
Thompson understands that Raab believes
If he does not achieve a treaty "on this round," Austria will proba-
bly be partitioned. Raab thinks that even if he has to pay too high
a price for a treaty, he can later renege on his agreements.
Thompson notes that Raab apparently be-
lieves Austrian ambassador Gruber in Washington is inaccurate
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when he presents the United States as opposed to four-power guar-
antees of Austrian neutralization,
Comment: Top-level Austrian officials
assert that the Austrian delegation will make no commitment in
Moscow, but will explore the nature of neutralization and anti-
Anschluss guarantees desired by the USSR.
The delegation, nevertheless, could
make clear Austria's tendency to accept such guarantees.
LATE ITEM
8. Paris wants Diem's powers limited immediately:
In a note delivered to American charg�
Achilles in Paris on 2 April, the French
government states that "the Diem govern-
ment must without delay become more
e y based or give place to another." The note enumerates Diem's
failures since he has been in power, and says he has alienated the
"great majority of political, military and spiritual forces" in Viet-
nam.
The French secretary of state for the
Associated States had told Achilles on 1 April that the French gov-
ernment was convinced the "Diem experiment" had failed and that
the idea of finding a solution now through strengthening the Diem
government was completely unrealistic.
Comment: In the note the French consider-
ably exaggerated Diem's weaknesses, possibly to suit their appar-
ent decision to make every effort to bring about his removal. Gen-
eral Ely's recommendation that Bao Dai invite Diem and the sect
leaders to Paris may be designed to further such an aim.
The French have long distrusted Diem,
and there is evidence that some French officials have been plotting
with anti-Diem elements. Paris now fears as well that Diem's
actions will involve France in civil strife in Indochina, a situation
which any French government will avoid at all costs for domestic
political reasons.
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1600 hours 4 April 1955.
1. The Chinese Nationalists have reported sighting 39 Chi-
nese Communist vessels at sea in the Peiling Peninsula - Min River
estuary area on 3 April. The sighting report included six to 11
LST's, sufficient for the initial lift of an assault force of 15,000 to
30,00 troops against islands of the Matsu group.
Although this report is not completely accepted, it is
viewed with concern. If true, it would mean that the Chinese Com-
munist navy had, on station opposite the Matsu Islands for the first
' ous lift sufficient t_tiine_amohil o launch
a successfully an attack.
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PAICHUAN ISLANDS
(WHITE DOGS)
HSICHUAN (Z2
TUNGCHUAN
50325