CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/08/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017430
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: August 5, 1954

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5 August 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
62
I_ I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 20/0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 301/160 REVIEWE
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Norway and Denmark protest agreement between Saudi Arabia
and Onassis (page 3).
2. Indonesia plans to place New Guinea question on UN General Assembly
agenda (page g).
FAR EAST
3. Three Chinese Communist NIIG-15 divisions apparently withdrawn
from Yalu area (page 4).
4. Comment on Yangtze River flood (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Viet Minh violation of cease-fire agreement cited (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Opposition uses Suez agreement to threaten Nasr regime (page 6).
LATE ITEM
7. Comment on Soviet proposal for four-power conference (page 7).
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Norway and Denmark protest agreement between Saudi Arabia
and Onassis (page 3).
2. Indonesia plans to place New Guinea question on UN General Assembly
agenda (page g).
FAR EAST
3. Three Chinese Communist MIG-15 divisions apparently withdrawn
from Yalu area (page 4).
4. Comment on Yangtze River flood (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Viet Minh violation of cease-fire agreement cited (page
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Opposition uses Suez agreement to threaten Nasr regime (page 6).
LATE ITEM
7. Comment on Soviet proposal for four-power conference (page 7).
5 Aug 54
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
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GEMERAL
1. Norway and Denmark protest agreement between Saudi Arabia
and Onassis:
Norwegian and Danish ambassadors
protesting the Saudi signature of the Onassis
tanker agreement.
Comment: Aside from American represen-
tations, these are the first formal protests addressed to the Saudi
government regarding the deal which gives the Onassis company
virtually exclusive rights to transport Saudi Arabian oil. Italy is
believed prepared to protest the agreement, and British foreign
secretary Eden voiced his concern to the Saudi ambassador in late
June. Other European countries with large shipping interests are
also disturbed by the effect this agreement will have on world shipping.
These protests are unlikely to deter Saudi
Arabia from implementing the Onassis agreement.
2. Indonesia plans to place New Guinea question on UN General Assembly
agenda:
Indonesia's permanent delegate to the United
Nations informed the American delegation
on 3 August of Indonesia's intention to place
the New Guinea question on the agenda of
the Ninth General Assembly. He intimated
he had support from the Asian-African group for including the item
on the agenda. The delegate made it clear that raising the question
in the General Assembly was a domestic political necessity.
Comment: Since Indonesia gained inde-
pendence in 1949, President Sukarno and almost all other Indonesian
leaders have tried to divert attention from their country's internal
problems by inflammatory speeches demanding that the Dutch cede
sovereignty over West New Guinea to Indonesia.
5 Aug 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Indonesia is expected to reopen the
question of Netherlands New Guinea at the Netherlands-Indonesia
talks which are about to be resumed at The Hague. Anticipating
continued Dutch refusal to discuss New Guinea at The Hague, a
leading member of the Indonesian delegation there stated that on
18 August, Indonesia will commence the 'battle for West Irian."
Both the Netherlands and Indonesia have re-
quested American support for their conflicting positions regarding New
Guinea.
FAR EAST
3. Three Chinese Communist MIG-15 divisions apparently withdrawn
Yon-Th-1u area:
Comment: One of the three MIG units
believed transferred from the Yalu area is the 17th Air Division,
which is now based at Ningpo on the East China coast about 100 miles
south of Shanghai. There is also some evidence that a second jet
fighter division was moved to the Shanghai area in March. The
identity and location of the third division are not known.
The withdrawal of the three divisions re-
duces Communist jet fighter strength on the Manchurian side of the
Yalu to about 400, including 250 Soviet planes. Peiping's continued
reduction of its once great jet strength in Manchuria had been expected.
The apparent build-up of air power in East China, where MIG's now
number between 200 and 250, directly threatens Chinese Nationalist
islands in the coastal waters of the East China Sea.
5 Aug 54
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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4. Comment on Yangtze River flood:
Despite a major disaster to food crops
and homes, the Peiping regime is publicly
asserting that it is shccessfully combating
flood conditions and limiting their effects.
5.
Unprecedented rainfall in the Yangtze valley
this spring and summer--19 inchc:s in June alone--has caused one of
the worst floods of the century. In 1931, the worst previous year, an
area of 100, 000 square miles was flooded, damage was estimated at
$1.29 billion, and over 25, 000, 000 persons on farms were affected.
Although the regime's flood control activities
of the past four years seem to have had some success--the city of
Hankow which in 1931 was under water for a month appears to have
been saved this time--it is believed that the Yangtze has overflowed its
banks in enough places to make crop damage from floods nearly as
severe as in 1931. The loss in food crops, which may reach millions
of tons, will significantly increase the regime's financial and food
problems and reduce the food available for export.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Viet Minh violation of cease-fire agreement cited:
The French high command states that the
Chinese have greatly increased their ship-
ments of weapons and ammunition to the Viet
Minh since the cease-fire agreement went
into effect on 22 July. Three hundred trucks are reported to have
moved into Tonkin since then.
The French believe the Viet Minh is trying
to accumulate the greatest possible quantity of materiel and equip-
ment in Indochina prior to the arrival of neutral inspection teams.
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Comment: Other reports, none of which
has been specific, have airei-Frtrat the Chinese have continued to
send the Viet Minh large amounts of supplies after such shipments
were banned by the cease-fire agreement.
The agreement on Vietnam provides
for the establishMerit,of internattOnalinspection teams at only tWo'-)
points along the Tonkin-China border (Langson and Lao Kay), but
establishes mobile inspection teams to patrol the other areas of the
borders. These inspection teams are believed to be inadequate to
check border shipments, and it is expected the Chinese will continue
to send equipment into Tonkin regardless of the cease-fire provisions.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Opposition uses Suez agreement to threaten Nasr regime:
According to Ambassador Caffery, Egyptian
prime minister Nasr probably faces the
toughest political fight of his career now that
preliminary agreement on the Suez base has
been reached.
Caffery states that the Moslem Brotherhood,
the Wafd, and the Communists have opened a vigorous campaign to
prevent signature of the final Suez agreement or at least force the
government to hold general elections. He believes that General
Nagib in his struggle with Nasr might be tempted to throw his weight
behind such a campaign.
Comment: Recent reports of anti-Nasr
demonstrations in Alexandria and of Moslem Brotherhood activities
against the government reflect strong opposition to the Nasr regime
despite the Suez "victory." Under these circumstances, government
plans to initiate a firm domestic policy may lead to a serious internal
crisis which would offer opposition groups an opportunity to undermine
the regime.
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LATE ITEM
7. Comment on Soviet proposal for four-power conference:
The Soviet note of 4 August, proposing a
four-power foreign ministers' meeting in
August or September, reveals the strength
of the Soviet concern with the pending French
debate on EDC ratification. It suggests that Moscow was disappointed
at the widespread negative reaction in the West to its 24 July proposal
for an all-European conference on collective security. Issued on the
eve of Western efforts to agree on a joint reply to the earlier note,
it appears to represent a move to maintain the initiative which the
Kremlin probably calculated lay on the Communist side after Geneva.
The latest note proposes that the four foreign
ministers discuss the calling of the all-European conference and
"measures contributing to its success, " a vague item which would
open the door to a barrage of Soviet propaganda on the dangers of
EDC and German rearmament. The note also proposes that the
foreign ministers discuss the German question, and--mentioning past
disagreement on the basic issues of unity and a peace treaty--recommends
that first of all they consider several unspecified questions relating to
Germany on which agreement would be possible.
Moscow appears to be reluctant at this time
to rehash stale peace treaty proposals on which Soviet maneuver-
ability is very limited. At new talks, Molotov is likely to repeat his
Berlin conference proposals for various all-German committees on
such matters as limitation of police forces, freer travel, trade and
cultural exchange within Germany. A more extensive set of pro-
posals on German matters may result from the current visit of East
German deputy premier Ulbricht to Moscow.
The renewed Russian insistence on a con-
ference is likely to evoke a more favorable French press reaction
than did the note of 24 July, but there will still be disappdintment in
Paris that Moscow has not made more specific or original proposals.
Premier Mendes- France now may be inclined to accede to pressure
from the Assembly to postpone a showdown on EDC until after the
summer recess.
British and German opinion too is likely to
criticize the lack of concrete suggestions on Germany. Both govern-
ments, however, will probably find it necessary to act cautiously in
opposing the Soviet proposa
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