LATIN AMERICA WEEKLY REVIEW 15 DECEMBER 1977[SANITIZED] - 1977/12/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03016887
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: December 15, 1977

National Approved for Release: 2018/10/01 C03016887
Foreign
Assessment
Center
Latin America
Weekly Review
15 December 1977
3.5(c)
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RP ALA 77-070
15 December 1977
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LATIN AMERICA WEEKLY REVIEW
15 December 1977
CONTENTS
3.5(c)
Human Rights Developments 14
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by
the Latin America Division, Office of Regional and Political Analysis, with occa-
sional contributions from other offices within the National Foreign Assessment
Center and from other agencies within the Intelligence Community. Comments and
queries are welcome. They should be directed to the authors of the individual
articles.
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Human Rights Developments
Argentine President Videla has reportedly taken steps
to eliminate excesses in the government's countersub-
version program. He has transferred several officers who
11 were involved in extortion or kidnaping. At the same time,
the chief of the federal police has issued an order that
there are to be no illegal arrests. Those arrested will
be turned over to the courts; in no case is the prisoner
to "disappear."
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The South American Military and the Return to Civilian
Government
Recent speculation that Latin American politics are
beginning a transition from military to civilian rule is
premature. All of the military governments have been
discussing liberalization policies and the possibility
of returning to some sort of civilian government. Bo-
livia and Ecuador are leading the way and have announced
plans to return to civilian rule next year. The problems
they have encountered in the retorno process, however,
are minuscule compared to those expected in the larger
military-dominated countries. Indeed, we doubt that
civilian rule without some military direction will soon
be established in Ecuador or Bolivia, and we believe it
highly unlikely that the military governments in the
other South American countries will completely step aside
in the foreseeable future.
The Military's Changing Perception
South American military governments have been fairly
successful in restoring order to societies threatened by
communism, anarchy, and chaos. Having for the most part
won the battle on the streets, however, these govern-
ments are now coming under increasing domestic and for-
eign pressure to return their countries to constitutional
rule. Thus, they are wrestling with a new type of po-
litical conflict that is both constitutional--how will
chaos and confusion be prevented in the future--and per-
sonal--who will hold power and occupy the presidency?
The answer to both questions still is: the military, in
one guise or another.
During most of the early 20th century, Latin Ameri-
can military governments were transitional in that they
would take over for a short while and then restore civil-
ian rule. At least one observer of Latin American af-
fairs has described this process as roughly equivalent
to a two-party system in which the "ins" manage for a
while and then are replaced by the fresher, unspoiled
"outs."
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The reasons for military coups were generally: threats
to the institutional existence of the army or cuts in the
military budget; the personal ambition of a military leader;
a call for the removal of an unpopular government; or an
appeal from conservative interests for protection against
a leftist government. Most such regimes returned the
government to civilian rule when it became obvious that
the military could not solve the problems or when serious
splits, threatening the integrity of the military insti-
tution itself, developed over one question or another.
In the past 15 years, however, there has been a
change in the military's perception of itself that has
altered the future political development of the continent.
The military has now proved in many countries, at least
to its own satisfaction, that it is the only institution
capable of providing the order and management necessary
in a period of social and economic upheaval. In fact,
a genuine concern for the social and economic well-being
of the populace has characterized the military intrusion
into civilian affairs in much of Latin American today.
Most military governments now see themselves not only
as defenders, but as developers of the nation and, de-
spite some disclaimers, are reluctant to give up this new
role.
If the world economic situation worsens in the near
future, the military will be even more convinced that it
is the only organization capable of maintaining economic
growth while keeping order. For example, no civilian
government would have the political courage or clout to
enforce the austerity measures now being implemented in
Chile. In Peru, even the military is having difficulty
enforcing the austerity necessary to secure International
Monetary Fund and other emergency assistance.
New Forms of Government
Given the military's changed perception of its role,
the salient issue becomes what -form the post-coup govern-
ment should take. For example, should military rule be
institutionalized in some manner, possibly by coopting
a political party, or by allowing presidential candidates
only from the military, or even by establishing a mili-
tary gray eminence behind a civilian facade? At its ex-
treme, the question is whether all vestiges of civilian
government should be removed and a new form created.
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Many Latin Latin American military men apparently would
choose the latter option. Most distrust civilian poli-
ticians and want to make sure that they are not returned
to power. The ebullience of post-coup nationalism soon
gives way, however, to the reality of retaining at least
some popular support or toleration, maintaining law and
order, and fostering economic growth by solving problems
that have long defied solution.
The more politically sophisticated military men of
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru apparently are still
mostly convinced that they can do the job and that the
political situations in their countries demand new methods
and institutions. There is, as might be expected, some
disagreement within the various military institutions, and
all except Argentina and Brazil have announced a timetable
to return to civilian rule "sometime" in the future. This
appears to be mostly a ploy, however, designed to deflect
domestic and foreign criticism.
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The Other Other Military Regimes
The Bolivian and Ecuadorean experiences certainly
have been noted by the other countries under military
regimes. Military rulers, who are well aware that com-
pliance with the US human rights policy includes at least
some homage to the idea of democratic government, are
likely to continue to talk of retorno and democracy, but
to do little about them.
In Argentina, the armed forces are convinced that
their intervention was the only possible way to stem the
deterioration caused by civilian mismanagement, corrup-
tion, and complacency--and they are probably correct. A
continuation of ineffective civilian government processes
did not offer an acceptable future for the country, while
a real national reorganization under the auspices of the
armed forces offered an attractive alternative.
Since their takeover, the generals have made demon-
strable progress against the twin problems--leftist ter-
rorism and economic disorder--they had singled out for
priority treatment. President Videla has maintained all
along that the armed forces will retain power until the
economy has been revitalized and the terrorists elimi-
nated. He says that the successor government�the National
Reorganization Movement--en-
visages a republican, represen-
tative, and federal democracy
"adequate to reality and to the
demands of the Argentine peo-
ple." There is no question,
however, that the achievement
of this goal will take a long
time.
Chilean President Pino-
chet has announced a return
to civilian rule in the mid-
1980s. In the meantime, he
has been institutionalizing
the role of the military in
the government by developing
constitutional acts providing
a legal foundation for mili-
tary rule. The Chilean
Argentine President Videla
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leaders have made it clear that the government will not
be reorganized until after the economic situation im-
proves, and then only under terms dictated by the armed
forces. President Pinochet has said that the "creation
of a new democracy will take a long time because each
idea must be thoroughly reviewed."
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The Governments of the Future
The unsavory aspects of mil-
itary dictatorship notwith-
standing, the Latin American
military stands out as the
only traditional institu-
tion with the discipline,
power, and ability to impose
an orderly governmental system
on the volatile societies of
South America. The armed
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forces are unlikely to resume their traditional role as
guarantors of the constitution and return the responsi-
bility of governing back to the civilians.
Instead, what we are likely to see during the next
several years will be an attempt by the South American
military governments to secure more domestic popular sup-
port or toleration and more international political le-
gitimacy. This will be achieved by encouraging civil-
ians to speak with the military rulers and by granting
more of the freedoms that are normal under constitutional
rule. In addition, presidents designated by the military
governments may run for "election" as civilians, thus ac-
quiring more legitimacy for the regime. Whatever method
is chosen, however, the military is likely to remain the
power behind the scenes for the foreseeable future.
The move toward civilian government will continue
to be discussed, but in actuality it will be a slow
evolutionary process because the military will continue
to distrust civilian politicians and to believe that
progress can only be achieved through order--as defined
by them. Moreover, should strong differences develop
within the military over the pace of the retorno, a new
generation of officers determined to avoid the same mis-
takes as their predecessors will take power through a
coup. Then, the whole process will have to begin all
over again.
For the time being, therefore, the southern continent
seems to have made its choice and is apparently content
to live with it. As the distinguished Latin American
statesman, Alberto Lleras Camargo, once observed, "Latin
Americans get, by and large, the regimes they deserve
and tolerate." 3.5(c)
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