CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/01/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03015195
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: January 15, 1958

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
15 January 1958
DAILY BRIEF
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
IChrushchev's absence from Moscow for a short rest
has been officially announced. He has not appeared in pub-
lic since 2 January, although there have been several func-
tions he would normally have attended. Khrushchev took a
six-week vacation in early fall, and his present absence may
have been caused by illness.
The Gomulka regime during 1958 will try to preserve
its position within the Communist bloc and stay in power
without returning to harsh Stalinist practices. Polish lead-
ers have only limited confidence in the economic prospects
for the coming year and they are determined to maintain an
opening to the West, not only for material benefits, but also
in the hope of using international recognition as a protection
against Soviet encroachments. (Page 1)
Approximately 25 aircraft�which preliminary analysis
Indicates are FLASHLIGHT twin-jet all-weather interceptors--
have been deployed to advanced bases in the Soviet Far East
since September. This is the latest operational aircraft of
this type in the Soviet Air. Force inventory. Small units of
these aircraft have been noted on the Kamchatka Peninsula
and on Sakhalin Island. 'A few improved early-warning,
ground-controlled intercept radars also have been noted in
the Soviet Far East recently. Continuation of these trends
will improve the all-weather capabilities of the Soviet air
forces in this area. (See MAP on
reverse page.)
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FLASHLIGHT (YAK-25)
BASES IN SOVIET FAR EAST
111 Probable
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I I. ASIA-AFRICA
The Syrian Communists have formally announced
their support of Egyptian-Syrian union. They probably
wish to forestall the creation of a new Syrian military
regime which might order the suppression of Commu-
'nist activity.
Two recent incidents along the Algerian-Tunisian
border a new ship-
\ LI ment of weapons from Syria is en route across Tunisia to
oAlgeria have further exacerbated Tunisian-French rela-
tions. (Page 2) (MAP)
In Ceylon, recent floods and strikes have so disrupted
the delicately balanced agricultural economy that a political
and economic crisis appears to be shaping up. Government
Inexperience and a lack of long-range economic planning will
make it difficult for Prime Minister Bandaranaike to over-
come his immediate problems. He will probably turn both
to the West and to the Sino-Soviet bloc for increased eco-
nomic aid and technical assistance.
The sighting of a Vautour aircraft with Israeli mark-
ings at a French air base may indicate that delivery of 15
of these aircraft, which Israel reportedly ordered last fall,
has begun or is imminent. The Israeli-marked aircraft
was seen at Tours/St. Symphorien air base, where some
Israeli pilots have been training in the all-weather version
of these aircraft since last fall. The acquisition of the
Vautour should increase the combat capabilities of the Is-
raeli Air Force, which is at present deficient in jet light
bombers and all-weather fighters. If delivery of these air-
craft to Israel is publicized, it will probably set off another
wave of anti-Israeli and anti-West propaganda in the Arab
states. In addition, it could cause the Syrians to request ex-
peditious delivery of the FRESCO-D jet all-weather fighters
and BEAGLE jet light bombers presently on order from the
USSR.
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DAILY BRIEF
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III. THE WEST
The French Government plans in 1958 to reduce its
armed forces by approximately 154,000 from the present
level of 1,044,000. This cut will seriously reduce France's
already delinquent NATO contribution in Western Europe,
since no considerable reduction is proposed for French
forces in Algeria. (Page 3)
Neither Bonn nor London shows signs of compromising
on Britain's demands for $140,000,000 to defray deutschmark
costs of British forces stationed in Germany during the year
beginning 1 April. No further NATO consideration is now
scheduled. London plans to reduce its forces in Germany
to 55,000 even if German support costs are forthcoming
and to 50,000 or below if not.
The Spanish minister of the army told General Maxwell
Taylor on 9 January that joint Spanish-French military opera-
tions against the irregular Moroccan Army of Liberation, pre-
sumably in Spanish Sahara and Mauritania, will begin by Feb-
ruary. A Spanish counteroffensive in Spanish Sahara was
reported in the press to have begun on 11 January. The French
will probably step up patrol activities in Mauritania in the near
future. (Page 4)
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Prospects for Poland in 1958
US Ambassador Beam believes that in 1958 the
Gomulka regime will try to preserve its position within
the Communist bloc, and consolidate its domestic con-
trol without returning to harsh Stalinist practices. The
skill of_Goinulka'S success in maintaining domestic sta-
bility and his promise to strengthen the party have en-
hanced his stature in the Communist world, where he ap-
parently is considered indispensable for handling the
Polish situation. Although liberalization has been slowed,
in part by developments within the bloc as a whole, he has
preserved to an even greater extent than Tito the relaxa-
tion of security measures and some freedom of press and
cultural activity.
Polish leaders have only limited confidence in the
economic prospects for 1958. Gomulka has compromised
between the reluctance of conservative elements to under-
take economic experiments and the desires of long-range
economic planners for major reorganization and reorien-
tation.
Ambassador Beam does not feel that Poland is com-
pletely subservient to the USSR in foreign affairs. Polish
leaders are determined to maintain an opening to the West,
not only for material benefits, but also in the hope of using
international recognition as a protection against Soviet en-
croachments. Poland's Rapacki plan to ban nuclear arms in
central Europe probably stemmed partly from a desire to
avoid the increased Soviet military activity in Poland which
might follow the stationing of nuclear missiles in West
Germany.
CONFIDENTIAL
15 Jan 58 CFNTRAI INTFI I InFtsirF Rill I FTIN Page 1
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ne Tunis
Constantine
H JANUARY
�Kasserine
TUNI
2 JANUARY
ALGERIA
TRIPOLITANIA
LIBYA
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
New Complications in French-Tunisian Relations
French-Tunisian relations are deteriorating again as
a result of recent incidents arising out of the Algerian rebel-
lion. Public opinion in both countries has been aroused by
mutual recriminations, imperiling the success of bilateral
talks recently begun in Tunis.
French officials in Tunisia are said to view as "very
serious" the 11 January incident along the Algerian-Tunisian
border in which an Algerian rebel band allegedly attacked a
French patrol operating in Algeria and then withdrew with
five captives across the Tunisian border despite the pres-
ence of Tunisian National Guard units. Paris has filed a
strong protest over the affair. A growing demand for French
military countermeasures inside the Tunisian border is not
likely to be allayed by Tunisia's insistence that no Algerians
entered Tunisia after the clash and that its border controls
have been effectively strengthened.
Information indicating that Syria is shipping a quantity of
"heavy weapons" to the Algerian rebels across Tunisia will
�add to Premier Gaillard's growing difficulties with rightists
in the confidence vote.scheduled for 16 January.
Popular feeling in Tunisia is still running high over re-
ports that on 2 January French troops from Algeria killed
three Tunisians and kidnaped 12 others. President Bourguiba
in his 9 January speech sharply criticized France and its posi-
tion on the military questions under discussion between the
two countries. These talks, according to Tunisian Foreign
Minister Mokaddem, have now reached an impasse.
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III. THE WEST
France Plans 15-Percent Cut in Armed Forces
The 15-percent reduction in military manpower pro-
posed in the French draft defense budget for 1958, which
the government will present to the National Assembly at
an early date, will necessitate further cuts in Frances
already deficient NATO contribution in Western Europe.
According to the semiofficial French Press Agency,
total strength of the armed services by the end of this
year will be cut 154,000 from the 1957 level of 1,044,000.
Part of this cut may be achieved by releasing conscripts
already serving beyond the 18-month statutory limit.
Forces in West Germany will be reduced by 19,781,
approximately one third. Practically all the 11.1356-man
reduction in North Africa will come from Tunisia and
Morocco. An estimated 480,000 French Army, Navy and
Air Force personnel are currently tied up in the Algerian
operations.
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Joint Spanish-French Military Operations in North
Africa Planned
General Barroso, Spain's minister of the army, told
General Maxwell Taylor on 9 January that joint Spanish-
French military operations will begin by February against
the irregular Moroccan Army of Liberation, presumably
in Spanish Sahara and neighboring French Mauritania. A
Spanish counteroffensive in Spanish Sahara began on 11
January, according to the press, and the French will prob-
ably step up patrol activities in Mauritania in the near fu-
ture.
Following attacks by Moroccan irregulars in Novem-
ber in Ifni and Spanish Sahara, Spain withdrew its forces
to five coastal defense perimeters in December. The French
are concerned over the presence of Moroccan Army of Lib-
eration bands in Mauritania and fear the consequences of a
collapse of Spanish power in Spanish Sahara.
The French cabinet was previously reported
to be divided on the question of joint
action with Spain. In any case, French hope for Moroccan
mediation of the Algerian problem is likely to limit the ex-
tent of French action against the irregulars.
The Spanish Navy expects to obtain from the French one
LST and one LSD (landing ship dock). The LSD would be used
to transport to Ifni 13 LCM's, recently provided under MAP.
These, and possibly other LCM's provided by the French,
would be manned by Spaniards and used only at Ifni, accord-
ing to the Spanish Navy.
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