CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/10/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03015186
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: October 11, 1957

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
7/.
//,
AUTH: HR 7U2
D 44
11 October 1957
Copy No.
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN C!
DECLA.-1,1!FIE
ci 14,
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. REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3/4
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CONTENTS
1. INDICATIONS SUGGEST LAUNCHING OF SECOND SOVIET
SATELLITE IS IMMINENT (page 3).
2. ANOTHER SOVIET NUCLEAR TEST OFF NOVAYA ZEMLYA
`(page 4).
3. FRENCH POLITICAL CRISIS
4. BELGRADE CONSIDERS ZHUKOV'S VISIT
(page 5).
"MOST SIGNIFICANT" (page 6).
5. CONTINUING SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO SYRIA
(page 7).
6. THE TUNISIAN ARMS PROBLEM
(page 8).
sr\-() 7. PAKISTAN'S PRESIDENT MIRZA WEIGHING DEMAND
FOR DISMISSAL OF PRIME MINISTER
(page 9).
� ANNEX- -Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intel-
� ligence Advisory Committee
11 Oct 57
page 10
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11.10 "14.01
1. INDICATIONS SUGGEST LAUNCHING OF SECOND SOVIET
SATELLITE IS IMMINENT
a second
earth satellite launching by the USSR is imminent. It is con-
sidered possible, but less likely, that this evidence presages
the test launching of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The second Soviet satellite probably
will be more extensively instrumented than the first, and
may transmit some signals on the agreed IGY frequency of
108 megacycles.
11 Oct 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
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2. ANOTHER SOVIET NUCLEAR TEST OFF NOVAYA ZEMLYA
another Soviet nuclear
explosion occurred at 0654 GMT on 0 October off the south=
western tin of Novaya Zemlya.
Comment This is the fourth Soviet nuclear test in
� the Novaya Zemlya area since the Soviet
announcement of 2 September warning all Soviet and foreign
vessels and planes that this area would be restricted from 10
September to 15 October. The announcement said ships and
aircraft would be carrying out exercises with the actual use
of various types of modern arms in conjunction with a plan
to test the combat readiness of the Northern Fleet.
11 Oct 57
Current: Intelligence Bulletin Page 4
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3, FRENCH POLITICAL CRISIS
Comment on:
ospects for a prolonged government
isis in Paris appear to have been in-
creased by Rene Pleven's failure to line
pa coalition. The Paris press now
sees no way out of the "impasse, " and there is open talk
of new elections which might permit one party to win
enough National Assembly seats to form a stable govern-
ment. The 1956 elections, however, demonstrated the
unlikelihood of such an outcome without prior electoral
reform, and no such reform can be undertaken by a
caretaker government.
There is speculation that President Coty
may now call on a center Popular Republican or a Radical
Socialist, but an early second attempt by Mollet is increas-
ingly likely. His chances are estimated by some observers
to be dimmer now than at the beginning of the crisis, since
his party's position has hardened following a renewal of
Independent attacks on the Socialist economic program.
Nevertheless the parties are under
growing pressure to end this crisis, and the possibility
of a quick resolution of differences to form at least a tem-
porary coalition cannot be ruled out. Clamor for "a call
to General de Gaulle" is increasing, and, although the
assembly is not yet in a mood to consider this seriously,
party leaders may well be fearful of the possible appeal
a national figure like the general could give to Pleven's
program of national union and a political truce.
11 Oct 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
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4. BELGRADE CONSIDERS macaws VISIT
"MOST SIGNIFICANT"
Comment on:
The routine publicity Yugoslavia has
accorded the visit of Soviet Defense
Minister Zhukov does not correspond
with Belgrade's private assessments.
Publicly the Yugoslays have treated the visit as mere
reciprocation for the trip of the Yugoslav minister of de-
fense to the USSR last June. Yugoslavia's Acting Foreign
Secretary Bebler told an American congressman visiting
Belgrade on 8 October, however, that the forthcoming
talks between Tito and Zhukov at a vacation site in Slovenia
will be "most significant."
According to Bebler, Tito hopes to
cover a wide range of problems dealing with East-West
relations as well as Yugoslav-Soviet relations. Contrary
to previous Yugoslav contentions that the West has over
estimated Zhukov's role, Bebler described Zhukov as
second only to Khrushchev in the Soviet hierarchy, and
argued that as a stabilizing force within the USSR, Zhukov's
position augurs well for the ascendency of the more "lib-
eral" elements led by Khrushchev. According to this
Yugoslav view, although the present Soviet leadership is
"far from perfect, " the trend is in the right direction and
must be encouraged since the victory over strong "Stalin-
ist" opposition in the upper bureaucracy is "far from
final."
In another effort to allay Western
suspicions over the growing accommodation between
Belgrade and Moscow, Bebler declared that differences
between Soviet and Yugoslav policy would be made evident
at the Yugoslav party congress despite the probability of
Soviet annoyance. In the meantime, he said, his govern-
ment does not intend to quarrel with the USSR over "minor"
differences.
Li Oct 57
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5. CONTINUING SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO SYRIA
Comment on:
Damascus is exploiting fully So-
viet promises to provide, on credit,
military goods to meet all Syria,'s
needs.
Damascus instructed
its mission in Moscow to increase from 500 to 1,50p the
order for "bazookas," probably 82-millimeter antitank
launchers. At the same time, Damascus indicated read-
iness to send to Moscow immediately Syrian air force
personnel slated for training in the IL-28 jet bombers
and "night-flying" MIG-17 jet fighters which were ordered
only last month along with a wide range of rush orders for
additional naval craft, artillery, small arms' and ammuni-
tion. Most of this materiel, except the aircraft, has al-
ready arrived in Syria.
Between 150 and 200 Soviet military
personnel are now in Syria instructing in the use and main-
tenance of Soviet equipment.
11 Oct 57
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6. THE TUNISIAN ARMS PROBLEM r. �
Tunisia's efforts to obtain arms and
equipment from Western sources are still blocked by the
continuing political crisis in Paris. President Bourguiba
has said his country can wait only until "the beginning of
November," and if Western materiel is not forthcoming
by that time he will probably feel compelled to turn else-
where. Czechoslovakia has reportedly offered arms to
Tunisia, and Cairo is to make a small shipment soon.
Shortly before the Bourges-Maunoury
government was overturned on 30 September, Paris in-
dicated French arms might be made available if new talks
with Tunis on major outstanding problems developed sat-
isfactorily. Bourguiba has insisted, however, that any
new discussions must be divorced from the arms question.
Meanwhile, other potential Western
suppliers are under strong French pressure not to supply
arms until a new French government can be installed.
Italy, apparently the only country which had agreed to sup-
ply arms to Tunisia during the short interval last month
before France withdrew its approval for such shipments,
now is endeavoring to delay further negotiations with the
Tunisians but has refused to give Paris a firm commit-
ment.
Tunisia assured American officials
that the Egyptian gift shipment will be only a "token"
quantity of Western arms, but there is still no indica-
tion of the precise size, nature, or date of arrival of the
Cairo materiel.
the offer was originally extended
in August but was not accepted until September when
Tunis asked the Egyptians to announce the offer "in
order to apply pressure on America and the Western
countries."
11 Oct 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
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7. PAKISTAN'S PRESIDENT MIRZA WEIGHING DEMAND
FOR DISMISSAL OF IRIME' MINISTER
comment on:
Pakistan's President Mirza is faced
with a critical decision as a result of
a threat made by leaders of his Repub-
lican party on 10 October that they will
resign their government posts and withdraw their majority
support of the central government coalition unless he dis-
misses Prime Minister Suhrawardy. The Republicans are
incensed over Suhrawardy's recent attacks on their party
during a tour of West Pakistan.
If Mirza refuses to submit to the wishes
of his own Republican party, he could lose his only signifi-
cant political following and thus destroy his chances to con-
tinue as President after the national elections planned for
November 1958. If he dismisses Suhrawardy, the result-
ing political instability would almost inevitably force Mirza
to suspend parliamentary government and rule by decree.
Without the support of a responsible cabinet, it is unlikely
that he could cope with Pakistan's growing economic prob-
lems. Such a failure, combined with the stigma of dicta-
torial rule, probably would also end his political career
eventually.
Suhrawardy reportedly arrived back
in Karachi for a showdown with Mirza on 10 October. His
recent inclination to cooperate with Suhrawardy suggests
that Mirza will decide that he cannot afford to accede to
the Republican demand, and will try to work out some form
of compromise between Suhrawardy and the Republican
leaders.
11 Oct 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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ANNEX
Watch Report 375, 10 October 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the In
Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the im-
mediate future.
� B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to thetorbAt in the immediate future.
C. Unstable conditions and tensions stemming from develop-
ments concerning Syria, in particular the deployment of
major Turkish forces on Syria's frontiers, continue to
create possibilities for conflict. in the Middle East. Con-
tinuing border incidents and Turkish military maneuvers
on the Syrian border scheduled for mid-October combine
to make this period particularly tense.
11 Oct 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 10
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