CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/11/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03015183
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: November 6, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
TOP SECRET
6 November 1956
Copy No.
112
DOCUMENT NO.
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CONTENTS
1. SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE:
r_SINOSt-i)VIET INTENTIONS IN THE SUEZ CRISIS
(page 2a).
2. HOSTILITIES IN EGYPT
(page 3).
3. _THREAT _EAT OF WAR ON JORDANIAN FRONT
(page 6).
4. SITUATION IN HUNGARY page 8).
5. BRITAIN AND FRANCE RETAIN FREEDOM OF ACTION
IN SUEZ (page 10).
6. SABOTAGE OF WESTERN OIL INSTALLATIONS
(page 12).
7. CHINESE COMMUNISTS ENDORSE SOVIET ARMED
INTERVENTION IN HUNGARY (page 15)
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1.
The Intelligence Advisory Committee's
Special National Intelligence Estimate of 5 Novem-
ber 1956 titled "Sino-Soviet Intentions in the Suez
Crisis" follows. (This Estimate was prepared
after study and analysis of the Bulganin letters
to Eden, Mollet and Ben-Gurion and the Soviet
proposal of 5 November to the UN Security Coun-
cil, together with a review prepared by the Watch
Committee of indications of Soviet intent to ini-
tiate hostilities.)
"1. The Bulganin letters to Eden, Mollet, and Ben-Gurion,
taken together with the Soviet proposal to the UN Security Coun-
cil and the earlier letter to President Eisenhower, can be read
as a declaration of intent to use Soviet armed forces, possibly
even unilaterally, against the UK,i France, and Israel, either in
the Suez Canal or elsewhere. We think it highly unlikely that
this is a declaration of intent to use all-out force against metro-
politan Britain or France. We think it unlikely that it means
an intention to use Soviet armed force on a large scale in the
Mediterranean, though the possibility cannot be excluded of iso-
lated attacks against UK or French forces. We estimate that
the USSR would be less reluctant to attack Israel than to attack
UK or French forces in the Middle East.
"2. These communications are in fact a very strong decla-
ration of Soviet readiness to participate in UN action to stop the
war in Egypt by force. The strong threats which accompany
this declaration are designed to create extreme alarm in the UK,
France, and the world, to compel the UN to enforce a settlement
tolerable to the USSR, and to prq.mpt for the USSR the credit
for such a settlement.
"3. There are several reasons why the USSR would wish to
take a strong, and alarming, stand in this matter:
(a) The necessity of doing so in order to re-
assert the Soviet position as the champion of Egypt
and of anti7colonial countriesl generally;
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(b) The desire to distract attention, both
within and outside the,Bloc, from the situation in
Hungary;
(c) The desire to damage the interests and
prestige of the UK and France;
(d) Possibly, a desire to re-establish the
fear of the use of Soviet military force as a pri-
mary factor in world affairs.
"4. With respect to the implied threat to the UK of using
'rockets' (presumably guided missiles with nuclear war-
heads), the USSR is estimated to have the capability of de-
livering low yield atomic weapons by ballistic missiles with
800 nautical mile range which could reach the UK if launched
from the Satellites. The 800-mile missile could reach major
Israeli and Cypriot targets but not Egypt itself. Air-to-
surface missiles, and probably submarine-launched missiles
with nuclear warheads are also within current Soviet capa-
bilities and could pose a threat to all areas. We do not be-
lieve that the USSR would employ guided missiles with nuclear
warheads in the Egyptian-Israeli conflict.
"5. To attack Israel or Franco-British forces in the East-
ern Mediterranean (except those on Cyprus) from present Bloc
bases, the USSR would have to use aircraft of the Long Range
Air Force, or use IL-28 jet light bombers on missions involv-
ing no return to the Bloc. Establishment of bases for IL-28
bombers in Syria, Jordan, or Iraq is an alternative possibility,
but would involve considerable problems of logistical support
and defense of such bases, especially if they were used for
sustained operations.
"6. On the basis of the Watch Committee's 5 November
examination of evidence bearing on Soviet military actions in
Europe and on military intervention in Middle East hostilities,
we conclude that:
(a) While the USSR might desire to continue
aid to Egypt, there is little likelihood that such aid
can now be furnished. Military aid in the form of
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materiel, technicians, and logistics to Syria
and through Syria to the other Arab States is
expected to continue, probably on an increased
scale and possibly including volunteers, but all
without decisive effect;
(b) Soviet troop movements, alerts and
other military activities related to re-establish-
ment of Soviet control in Hungary do not indicate
preparations for or intentions to initiate hostili-
ties outside the Bloc.
"7. We believe that our previous estimate that the USSR
wishes to avoid general war continues to be valid.
"8. With respect to the Far East, we believe it possible,
though it does not at present seem probable, that the Suez
crisis might develop in such a way as to cause the Chinese
Communists to take advantage of it by an attack on the British
Crown Colony of Hong Kong."
* * * * * *
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2. HOSTILITIES IN EGYPT (information as of 2200, 5 November)
The initial phase of the Anglo-French
attack on Egypt is nearing completion.
Early reports of the capitulation of
Port Said, at the northern end of the
canal, were later contradicted, how-
ever, by a British communique which
stated that the Egyptian defenders had
rejected surrender terms.
British forces landed west of Port Said
town at dawn on 5 November and seized
Gamil airfield. French forces landed
at Port Fuad, the town opposite Port
Said at the entrance of the canal, and also seized two bridges
south of Port Said linking the town with the road to the main-
land. Following consolidation of control over the airfield,
additional troops were reportedly landed on the field by heli-
copter�probably from the two light British carriers which
are bringing Royal Marines from Malta.
In a separate operation French airborne
forces landed at Gilbana, about 10 miles east of the Suez
Canal on the coastal rail line. At Gilbana the French forces
are in a position to advance southwest toward Qantara and
cross the canal, or to function initially as a blocking force
to protect a possible amphibious landing over the beaches in
the vicinity of Romani in the Bay of Tina. The waters off the
beaches west of Port Said will have to be cleared of naval
mines before landings can be made there.
The official Egyptian attitude in the face
of the Anglo-French assault is one of willingness to accept
any terms which will avoid a direct capitulation to the British
and French. Civilian and military morale is still reported to
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be good, except for the troops which were evacuated from
Sinai. All Egyptian sources continue to assert that Nasr
will fight to the end.
At 2045 on 5 November Israel informed
the UN secretary general that it agreed unconditionally to a
cease-fire and that since the morning of 5 November all
fighting between Israeli and Egyptian forces had ceased.
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3. THREAT OF WAR ON JORDANIAN FRONT (information
as of 2200, 5 November)
General Burns the senior UN repre-
sentative in Palestine, believes the
situation on the Israeli-Jordanian front
is distinctly ominous. The Jordanian
delegate on the mixed armistice com-
mission told Burns that Jordan would
soon abrogate its mutual defense treaty
with Britain and then,together with Iraq,
Syria and Saudi Arabia move against
Israel.
Jordan was
breaking diplomatic relations with France
and ordered its personnel home. A SHAPE
report that
100 or more Soviet jet aircraft are being
ferried to Syria or Egypt from the Soviet
bloc has not been substantiated
the Jordanian government
will permit the entry of "the greatest num-
ber of Arab forces" including Iraqi, Syrian
and Saudi troops.
popular morale in Jordan is
high but General Nuwar, the commander of
the Jordanian forces, is pessimistic
On 5 November General Nuwar told the
American army attach�n Amman that Syrian and Iraqi troops
were now in Jordan on the east bank of the Jordan River and
that the decision to move them to the west bank had not yet been
made. Nuwar stated that in a new agreement with Iraq he re-
mained in command of the combined Iraqi-Jordanian forces.
Command arrangements with Syria were about to be completed.
The continuing movement of Israeli troops
to the Jordanian and Syrian frontiers is supported by an Israeli
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press campaign which ranges from demands that the
"brilliant blitzkrieg" be extended to Jordan to assertions
that "breaches of peace on the borders" will not be tol-
erated. According to General Burns, Israeli foreign min-
ister Meir has assured the British ambassador that Israel
would not attack Jordan unless itself attacked or "provoked."
the Egyptian-Syrian-
Jordanian joint military command agreed to commence
immediately "wide-sWP" commando raids on the Syrian
ami Jordanian fronts. I
Commando activities will furnish Israel, it it cnooses, LI1U
occasion for initiating military action against Jordan and
Syria.
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4, SITUATION IN HUNGARY (information as of 2200,
5 November)
According to Hungarian rebel radio
broadcasts on 5 November, hostilities
were continuing north of Budapest near
the Czech frontier and in the Lake Balaton
region, as well as in the capital itself.
Unconfirmed �reports indicate continued
fighting in the Gyoer and Pecs areas.
Authoritative reports received by the
American legation in Budapest put Soviet
op s reng ungary at 200,000 men, with 4,600 tanks
and large numbers of troops and heavy weapons on the frontier.
Soviet tanks reportedly are fighting in closed formation in
Budapest and the rebels allegedly have forces on Csepel
Island in the Danube and control one bridge to the mainland.
The clandestine rebel radio also says that in some places
Soviet forces have refused to fire on Hungarians.
Radio Budapest broadcast early in the
day a demand that all rebel fighters surrender their arms
by 1800 (Budapest time) 5 November. A regime-controlled
local radio indicated that those who surrendered their arms
by that time would not be harmed. Several cities�and pre-
sumably the entire country--are under a curfew from 1530
to 0600 hours.
The commander of the Soviet troops in
Hungary has made a "plea" over Budapest radio for Hungar-
ians not to believe "slanders against the Soviet soldiers" who
are "peasants, intellectuals and workers, just like you."
No major changes in the political picture
have been announced; the new premier, Janos ICadar, continues
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his appeals for order and support for his program, which is
similar to that of Gomulka in Poland.
The Hungarian embassy in East Berlin
has been put under guard by East German security police who
early on 4 November arrested members of a revolutionary
council which had taken over direction of the mission. The
fate of certain other revolutionary councils which were es-
tablished in various foreign missions has not been determined;
however, it would appear likely that efforts to take action
against them might lead to defection.
India, which abstained on the UN Hun-
garian resolution of 4 November, reportedly delivered to
Moscow "during the week end" a note expressing India's
"concern and distress" over events in Hungary. Nehru also
told the opening meeting of the UNESCO conference in New
Delhi on 5 November that "what we are seeing today in Egypt
and Hungary are both freedom and dignity outraged, and
forces of modern arms used to suppress peoples:'
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5. BRITAIN AND FRANCE RETAIN FREEDOM OF
ACTION IN SUEZ
Britain and France have cited with
approval the UN General Assembly's
prospective intervention to stop the
fighting in Egypt. They insist on
certain conditions before complying,
however, and in the meantime, Anglo-
French military operations continue.
London and Paris presumably still
intend to gain complete control of the
Suez Canal, but it is not certain whether
they will hold out for the collapse of the
Nasr regime before complying in any
straightforward manner with the UN's
call for a general cease-fire.
On 5 November, following extended
talks in London, Eden and French foreign minister Pineau
stated they would halt the fighting as soon as Egypt and
Israel accepted the UN police-force proposal. They spe-
cifically proposed that the UN establish an international
force to handle four points: (1) prevent continuance of
hostilities between Israel and Egypt; (2) secure speedy
withdrawal of Israeli forces; (3) restore traffic through
the Suez Canal; and (4) promote a settlement of Middle
East problems.
Meanwhile, Britain and France have
answered UN secretary general Hammarskjold's appeal to
conform to the proposed cease-fire by proposing an early
ministerial-level Security Council meeting to work out a
general Middle East settlement.
The Eden government has been subjected
to public outbursts unprecedented in recent years, and to vio-
lent opposition from the Labor Party. In France, the govern-
ment has met with little open criticism, except from the ex-
treme left.
Elsewhere in Western Europe the popular
reaction has been broadly critical of the Anglo-French attack,
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but there is less unanimity in government circles. The
Austrian and Scandinavian governments have been strongly
condemnatory, tending to link failure of the Hungarian
break for freedom to the Suez action. On the other hand,
considerable support for Anglo-French purposes appears
to prevail among officials in the Benelux countries and in
Bonn.
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6. SABOTAGE OF WESTERN OIL INSTALLATIONS
Oil installations in Kuwait and the IPC
refinery at Tripoli, Lebanon, are ap-
parently the next targets in the Egyptian
sabotage campaign against Western oil
installations.
Aramco on 5 November denied reports that
its Tapline pipeline has been sabotaged.
The Syrian government has asked Jordan
to defend the Tapline installations and Jor-
dan hag nrnmiepri fn rin en
Tapline had stopped loading tankers for Britain and France on
4 November as a precaution against sabotage.
who witnessed the demo-
lition of the T-2 pumping station on the IPC Kirkuk-Tripoli
lines said that the sabotage was carried out by a Syrian army
unit. IPC officials in Baghdad said a company plane spotted
fires at T-2, T-3 and T-4. Syrian involvement in the sabotage
campaign is confirmed
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7. CHINESE COMMUNISTS ENDORSE SOVIET ARMED
INTERVENTION IN HUNGARY
Despite its sympathy for Polish and
Hungarian Communist efforts to at-
tain a greater degree of independence
from Moscow, Peiping has strongly
endorsed Soviet armed intervention in
Hungary. Peiping's statements make a distinction between
a Communist regime which intends to remain in the bloc--
as it describes the Gomulka government in Poland--and
an anti-Communist regime which does not, as was the
prospect in Hungary.
On 5 November the Peonle!s Daily,
official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party,
praised Soviet troops for having "twice helped the Hun-
garian people to achieve liberation," and emphasized that
the critical issue for Peiping is "solidarity among all the
socialist countries:'
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CONFIDENTIAL
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