CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/09/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03015179
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: September 15, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
15 September 1956
Copy No, 105
3
DOCUIVIEN'T NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. pl.-
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: H 70-
DAT
EVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.3(h)(2
3.5(
e
TOP SECRET /7
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CONTENTS
1. NEW SOVIET MOVES IN SUEZ CRISIS
(page 3)
2. EGYPT APPEARS STILL SE KING TO AVOID PROVOCATION IN
SUEZ CRISIS (page 5).
3. EUROPEAN REACTIONS TO PROPOSED SUEZ USERS' ASSOCIA-
TION
4. NASR REPORTED READY TO NEGOTIATE ON BASIS OF SPAN-
ISH SUEZ PR.OPOSAI (page 7).
J.
NEHRU CALLS A COLOMBO POWERS' MEETING ON SUEZ
(page 8).
6. SOVIET CANAL PILOrrs REPORTED IN EGYPT
(page 9).
7. TWO SUBMARINES BELIEVED SOVIET ENTER MEDITERRANEAN
(page 10).
8� SOVIET NUCLEAR TESTS PROBABLY CONCLUDED
(page 11).
9. SAUD REDUCES PRICE FOR EXTENSION OF DHAHRAN AIR-
FIELD AGREEMENT (page 12).
10. SOVIET-INDONESIAN AID AGREEMENT SIGNED
(page 13).
11. USSR WARNS SATELLITES AGAINST YUGOSLAV INFLUENCE
(page 14).
12. EMPLOYMENT OF IET TECHNICIANS IN EGYPTIAN OIL
EXPLORATIONS
(page 15).
13. VENEZUELA NOT INVOLVED IN ARUBA STRIKE THREAT
(page 16).
15 Sept 56
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 17)
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1. NEW SOVIET MOVES IN SUEZ CRISIS
Moscow's first official demarche to the
Western powers on the Suez problem
since the London conference was con-
tained in notes delivered to London and
Paris on 12 September. The notes warn
again that the use of force against Egypt
would carry the inherent risk of an ex-
panded war and encourage the British
and the French to undertake new nego-
tiations either in a conference or at the
United Nations. The notes will reassure
Cairo of Moscow's good faith in carry-
ing out its promise to give Egypt active
political support during the crisis.
According to a source in the British
Foreign Office, the note to London dealt
largely with the dangers of using force in the present age, the
lasting effect the use of force would have on Western interests
in the Middle East, and an appeal for a peaceful settlement of
the problem based on the United Nations charter. According
to the French Foreign Ministry, the note to Paris adds an in-
sinuation that the United States is attempting to replace France
in Algeria and gain ascendancy in the Middle East. The note
asserts that the USSR had no prior knowledge that Nasr was
going to nationalize the Suez Canal and that Moscow has con-
sistently urged Nasr to settle the matter peaceably.
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Meanwhile, TASS in London has termed
the creation of the canal users' association a "signal for the
intensification of a campaign of blackmail and threats in re-
spect to Egypt:' Moscow radio on 13 September charged it
runs counter to the United Nations charter. Western press
reports state that Soviet diplomats in London have harshly
criticized the users' association and have stated that while
the USSR wants to avoid a conflict over Suez, the USSR would
be among those nations providing Egypt with both volunteers
and arms should there be an attempt to force solution on
Egypt.
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2. EGYPT APPEARS STILL SEEKING TO AVOID
PROVOCATION IN SUEZ CRISIS
!while the Egyptian government's
initial reaction to the announcement
of the formation of a Suez Canal users'
association was one of outrage and determination to resist
with all available means, soberer second thoughts appear
to have produced a renewed determination to avoid any ac-
tion which could be interpreted as provocation or as Obstruc-
tion of canal traffic.
The Nasr regime's tactic,
seems to be to ridicule the users' asso-
ciation plan while trying to marshal world opinion against
it.
Comment
Strong Egyptian statements opposing
the users' association plan, even con-
sidering they were made in the heat of the initial reaction,
seem to have closed off any possibility that Cairo might
come to terms with this plan.
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3. EUROPEAN REACTIONS TO PROPOSED SUEZ
'USERS' ASSOCIATION
Premier Mollet and Foreign Minister
Pineau during a conversation on 13 Sep-
tember gave Ambassador Dillon the
impression that the proposed users' asso-
ciation fully satisfied British and French
needs for action and contributed to avoid-
ing the danger of armed hostilities with
Egypt. Once the association was organ-
ized, Paris would be willing to undertake
serious negotiations with President Nasr
for a permanent settlement along the gen-
eral lines of the 18-power proposal.
Pineau believes there is a good possibil-
ity of avoiding hostilities unless Nasr commits another grave
act, but he did not indicate whether rendering transit impos-
sible for vessels of the proposed users' association would,
if carried out peacefully, be the type of grave action which
might bring on hostilities.
Italian foreign minister Martino on 13
September told Ambassador Dillon in Paris that he did not
see how the proposed association would be successful in get-
ting shipping through the canal and said that Italy, for geo-
graphical and financial reasons, could not undertake to route
its shipping around the Cape of Good Hope. Martino said he
felt the only way to make further progress would be to call
another conference of the 18 nations. The Italian cabinet,
on the other hand, issued a communiqu�n 12 September ad-
vocating recourse to the United Nations.
The Danish, Norwegian and Swedish for-
eign ministers meet in Stockholm Sunday to seek a common
Scandinavian position toward the proposed users' associa-
tion. The reaction of the Scandinavian governments to the
proposal has been strongly negative and Foreign Minister
Unden of Sweden is convinced the matter must be referred
to the UN.
15 Sept 56
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4. NASR REPORTED READY TO NEGOTIATE ON BASIS OF
SPANISH SUEZ PROPOSAL
t/ The Egyptian ambassador in Madrid has
informed Spain that Nasr would accept
Spain's proposed formula of an interna-
tional consultative body for the Suez
Lanai, teaving .Egypt full operating control, as a babislor
negotiations in a new 45-power conference sought by Egypt.
Spanish foreign minister Martin Artajo informed Ambassa-
dor Lodge on 13 September that Spain had promised to in-
form Egypt of its intentions with regard to the proposal by
15 September, but desired to know the US position first.
Martin Artajo also expressed concern lest the West find
itself at war without having explored this new development.
The Egyptian ambassador prefaced his
announcement of Nases offer with the statement, "Spain's
hour had now come" to save the peace.
Comment At the London conference, Spain re-
served its right to suggest a consulta-
tive form of international participation for the Suez Canal
similar to the Indian plan should the 18-power proposal be
rejected by Egypt.
The Spanish government and the con-
trolled press have taken the view that the Spanish amend-
ment was the only approach to the issue that had a good
chance of effecting a prompt solution. The Egyptian press
has claimed the support of t*enty. nations-'-inclticling India
and the Soviet bloc members--for the new conference pro-
posal, but no official acceptances have been reported.
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5. NEHRU CALLS A COLOMBO POWERS' MEETING ON SUEZ
Nehru has called for a meeting on 15
September of representatives of the
Colombo powers in New Delhi to dis-
cuss the Suez Canal question, accord-
ing to an Indian government announce-
ment.
India's move--which reportedly surprised
Pakistan, Ceylon, Burma and Indonesia--
is probably to seek 'approval for a new approach to the dis-
puting nations. This approach seems likely to take the form
of a call for postponement of any proposed Western action
and for further peaceful negotiations on the basis of mutual
recognition of Egypt's sovereignty and of international in-
terest in the canal.
Pakistan, which supported the West at
the London conference, may under mounting public pressure
associate itself with any mediation move by the Colombo
powers. Britain would deplore such a move by a group in-
cluding the three Commonwealth nations of India, Pakistan
and Ceylon, but would be unlikely to be deterred by Pakistan's
defection from the 18-nation group at the London conference.
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6. SOVMT CANAL PILOTS REPORTED IN EGYPT
Comment
An unspecified number of Soviet ship
pilots have arrived in Egypt and are
prepared to enter on duty on the Suez
Canal, according to a press report quot-
ing the Soviet consul in Port Said.
Egypt has received offers from pilots of
many nations. Earlier this month Cairo
was postponing acce ta
qualified Polish pilots b
applicants be postponed
15 Sept 56
Egypt requested five
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7, TWO SUBMARINES BELIEVED SOVIET
ENTER MEDITERRANEAN
Comment
Two submerged submarines, probably
Soviet, entered the Mediterranean Sea
through the Straits of Gibraltar on 12
September,
The USSR may have sent these sub-
marines to the Mediterranean for re-
connaissance purposes and, in the event of hostilities, to
make them available to Egypt. It is also possible that these
are the Soviet submarines scheduled for transfer to Egypt
this month. These submarines are known to be manned by
Soviet crews.
The two submarines which passed
Gibraltar probably are those which passed submerged
through the Great Belt in the Danish Straits on 31 August.
A third submariiea1snnroIably left the Baltic submerged
on 8 September.
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8. SOVIET NUCLEAR TESTS PROBABLY CONCLUDED
The departure of at least 28 military
aircraft from Semipalatinsk between
10 and 12 September suggests that the
current Soviet nuclear test series has
been concluded. The fly-out culmi-
nated in the scheduling of 23 aircraft to fly from Semipala-
tinsk on 12 September. Of the 28 aircraft, 19 were light
transports,
Comment The exodus of substantial numbers of
transport aircraft from Semipalatinsk
has marked the ending of a test series in the past. These
aircraft are presumed to be carrying technicians, scien-
tists and observers, as well as instruments and equipment.
The 23 aircraft on 12 September constitute the largest num-
ber noted leaving the Semipalatinsk airfield on a single day
and provide an index to the extent of the logistical build-up
that took place at the test site prior to the initiation of the
series.
The current series of nuclear tests has
included four detonations, on 24 August, 30 August, 2 Sep-
tember and 10 September. All have been characterized by
fairly, high yield (more than 100 kilotons. At least one was
of the thermonuclear type.
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9 SAUD REDUCES PRICE FOR EXTENSION OF DHAHRAN
AIRFIELD AGREEMENT
King Saud,as his "last offer," expressed
willingness to Ambassador Wadsworth
on 13 September to extend the Dhahran
airfield agreement for five more years
if the United States would agree to grant $85,000,000 worth
of military equipment in addition to furnishing $25,000,000
worth of other aid.
The king added that if the United States
uld agree to sell an additional $35,000,000 worth of arms,
previously sought by him, he would desire to retain the
American military advisory mission.
Comment
Saud's proposal contrasts with his pre-
Suez offer to extend the agreement for
five years in return for $250,000,000 worth of arms.
The previous five-year agreement ex-
pired in June of this year, but was provisionally extended
by the king pending conclusion of a new agreement.
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10. SOVIET-INDONESIAN AID AGREEMENT SIGNED
An agreement for $100,000,000 in Soviet
aid for Indonesia will be signed in Djakarta
on 15 September, according to an announce-
ment by the Indonesian Foreign Ministry.
The announcement stated that the aid would
be used to help develop asphalt and hydro-
electric plants as well as coal and nickel
mines.
The aid probably has been set up as a line
of credit on which Indonesia can draw as its economic plans
progress under a five-year plan, now in final stages of prep-
aration. The Indonesian press reported on 12 September that
the credit would be at 2.5-percent interest repayable in 12
years.
The decision on the amount of aid may have
resulted from talks held by President Sukarno and Foreign
Minister Abdulgani during their recently concluded visit to
Moscow. Indonesian officials may argue--in defense of their
neutrality�that the Soviet credit balances the $100,000,000
granted by the Export-Import Bank in 1950, which has been
exhausted only this year.
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11. USSR WARNS SATELLITES AGAINST
YUGOSLAV INFLUENCE
he Soviet ommunist Party warned
he Hungarian and other Satellite par-
ies on 3 September against Yugoslav
nfluence in regard to the "separate
oa s o soma ism concept, explicitly criticizing Com-
munist statements too commendatory of Yugoslavia and
saying that the USSR remains the model to follow. The
Soviet party also criticized Yugoslav foreign policy as be-
ing "too pro-Western:' according to information received
by the American embassy in Belgrade.
Comment The recent press exchange between
Yugoslavia and the Soviet bloc on the
"Cominformist" trials indicated that the question of "na-
tional Communism" was still unresolved. Although Yugo-
slavia adopted a "conservative" attitude toward changes in
Eastern Europe up through the period ending with Tito's
June visit to the USSR, the Yugoslays have again resumed
the initiative in influencing developments in the Satellites
and have accorded public support to "moderate" Polish and
Hungarian Communist elements.
Although this Soviet move may compel
"moderate" Communist forces to adopt more cautious tac-
tics, previous warnings such as Bulganin's speech in Warsaw
last July were apparently largely ignored by those Satellite
Communists intent on more independent, liberal policies.
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12. EMPLOYMENT OF SOVIET TECHNICIANS IN
EGYPTIAN OIL EXPLORATIONS
or
Cairo
Soviet technicians are to assist Egypt
in the oil explorations for which Amer-
ican and British companies had been
seeking leases for several months, ac-
ng to a repor received by the American embassy in
American companies had been assured
they would be awarded the leases. The reasons for the re-
ported decision are said to have been hostility to Britain
and fear that concessions to American firms would be in-
terpreted as a sign of weakness.
The USSR has unsuccessfully attempted
to secure rights to oil exploration elsewhere in North Africa
and the Middle East. The embassy speculates that similar
arrangements may be extended to other planned oil explora-
tion activities in Egypt, but there have been no indications
that concessions already operated by British and American
companies will be affected.
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13. VENEZUELA NOT INVOLVED IN ARUBA
STRIKE THREAT
Preliminary reports that Venezuela
planned an invasion of Aruba in the
Netherlands Antilles in connection with
a possible strike at the Lago refinery
�appear exaggerated and without basis
in fact,
The Hague
knows of no such invasion plans and
the American embassy in Caracas does
not believe the Venezuelan government
is prepared for such an adventure.
Local Netherlands officials have given
assurances that adequate police and military measures are
planned to prevent violence and protect water and food sup-
plies in the event of a strike.
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 14 September)
A new serious incident took place along the
Israeli-Jordanian border during the night of 13-14 September. A
Jordanian military spokesman charged that a large Israeli mobile
force raided a police post 12 miles inside the border in South Jor-
dan, killing at least 21 Jordanians. The Israeli press claimed
that there were no survivors among the 50-man garrison of the
post. None of the recent raids has been acknowledged by the Is-
raeli government. Tension mounted as Jordanian troops were
placed on the alert and officers' week-end leaves were reported
canceled. Meanwhile, Jordan's King Hussain flew to Habbaniya in
Iraq for an emergency conference with Iraq's King Faisal, Prime
Minister Nuri Said andArmy Chief of: Staff Rafiq, in a reported effort
to obtain Iraqi aid. (Press)
the bulk of thejor-
dantan army has moved in recent days into West Jordan and that
there is always a possibility, that the Jordanian army "will take
matters into its own hands, causing a major action'
rily limited and sporadic retali-
ation for the recent Israeli attacits in the form of fedayeen terror-
ist activity, there were no signs of a
large-scale mobilization of Israeli forces, but that very heavy con-
centr firms of Israeli troops had been observed in the Beersheba
area.
The new Israeli raids will promote instability
in Jordan by further weakening the influence of the king and the gov-
ernment in West Jordan, where the National Guard and former resi-
dents of Palestine have borne the brunt of the pressure. The Amer-
ican embassy in Amman reports indications that both the National
Guard and the civilians are becoming more difficult to control.
Reports from Cairo indicate the possibility of
exhaustion of refugee relief food supplies in the Gaza strip by the
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end of September. The American embassy reports that the
Gaza refugees are already aware of the shortage of food sup-
plies and are beginning to show discontent. American and
Egyptian relief officials expect that unless the refugees can
_11P�gRanred_that_more fOod s coming. riots a occur...
ur.
15 Sept 56
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