CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/12/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03009174
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: December 4, 1954

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4 December 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO

NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE.OJU
AUTH; HR 70-2
DATE: 7///80 REVIEWER:
No.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
80
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UHL;
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on declaration concluding Orbit conference in Moscow
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Sverdlov class cruiser possibly constructed at Molotovsk yard
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French see need for early Indochina talks with US (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Additional changes in Nehru's cabinet are possible (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Shah may remove Iranian prime minister (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Hungary assigns military personnel to coal mines (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Juin seen making bid for top control of French North Africa
(page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on declaration concluding Orbit conference in Moscow:
2.
The Moscow conference has produced
no new proposals which might block
French and German ratification of the
Paris agreements. It wak staged apparently to dramatize the
Soviet thesis that the West'NKill bear the entire responsibility
for the consequences of rearming West Germany. As the final
declaration states, this action will compel the Orbit states to
take "joint measures with regard to the organization of their armed
forces and command, as well as other measures equally necessary
for the strengthening of their defense capacity."
The conference so far has failed to make
any significant impression on French or German opinion, which
has viewed the newly announced Orbit defense unity as merely an
official admission of a long-existing situation.
SOVIET UNION
Sverdlov class cruiser possibly constructed at Molotovsk yard:
Two Sverdlov class light cruisers
were signi.eu in we vicinity uiuie
' inlet in the Murmansk area on 2 Octo-
ber, i US
naval headquarters comments that one of the cruisers
may have been constructed at the Molotovsk shipyard near Arch-
angelsk, which had not been known to be engaged in major war-
ship construction since World War II.
Comment: Prior to this sighting, only
one cruiser of this class, the Areiander Nevskiy, was assigned
to these waters. The Alexander Nevskiy was built at Leningrad
and transferred to the Northern Fleet in the summer of 1953,
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The reasons for concluding that the
second cruiser was built at Molotovsk are (a) lack of evidence that
any Soviet cruiser other than the Alexander Nevskiy has transited
the Danish straits to join the Northern Fleet and (b) tentative evi-
dence that a cruiser con-
struction program is under way at the Molotovsk yard. The par-
ticipation of the Molotovsk yard in the production of Sverdlov
class cruisers suggests strongly that the cruiser construction
program, which had shown signs of tapering off, will be extended.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French see need for early Indochina talks with US:
New French-American talks on the
political situation in South Vietnam
will have to take place "within a mat-
ter of weeks rather than months," ac-
cording to the personal spokesman of French minister for the
Associated States Le Cha,mbre.
The spokesman told American offi-
cials in Paris on 2 December that his ministry is convinced Viet-
namese premier Diem must be replaced. His personal view was
that the American policy of reducing the size of the Vietnamese
army and the French expeditionary force is incompatible with sup-
port of Diem. He said he doubted that the Manila pact could pro-
vide an adequate substitute for a substantial expeditionary corps.
He was unable to explain, however, how the maintenance of a
large military force would be of value unless "a stand were taken"
and the all-Vietnam elections scheduled for 1956 were avoided.
He indicated that he still thinks the 1956 elections will provide
the only "solution" to the Indochina problem.
Comment: There are indications that
France may be trying to establish greater American responsi-
bility for future developments in Vietnam. General Ely suggested
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to General Collins in Saigon on 30 November that the planned
cuts in the Vietnamese army and the expeditionary corps made
the United States and France equally responsible for the security
of South Vietnam.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Additional changes in Nehru's cabinet are possible:
Indian prime minister Nehru has dropped
his idea of making V. K. Krishna Menon
minister of defense and is now thinking of
him as "minister of external affairs with-
out portfolio," Nehru is,
however, meeting strong objections to Menon's appointment to any
"central post." Some of the opposition comes from sources as
high as Education Minister Azad, who acts as prime minister when
Nehru is abroad.
Comment:
Nehru is trying hard to find a cabinet post for
Menon. He will probably fail to get Menon a voting cabinet member-
ship, but may well succeed in making him a minister without port-
folio, with much of the prestige of a cabinet member, but without
a vote.
Nehru obviously feels keenly the loss of
the late food minister Kidwai's administrative talent and liberal-
leftist companionship. This is illustrated by his bringing Pandit
Pant, one of India's ablest administrators and most prominent
Congress Party members, into the cabinet on 1 December and by
his urgent desire to have Menon, another old friend, close to him.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Shah may remove Iranian prime minister:
There is a strong possibility that the
Shah will remove Prime Minister Zahedi
soon after the monarch returns from the
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United States States in early February 1955,
The Shah has stated that Zahedi must
vigorously prosecute a program of social reform and the elimi-
nation of corruption.
however, the prime minister is not taking the anticor-
ruption campaign seriously and the people around him are lining
their pockets.
Comment: It has long appeared probable
that Zahedi would not remain in office for any considerable period
after settlement of the oil dispute. The Shah probably could re-
place him without difficulty, since the prime minister has, little
personal following.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Hungary assigns military personnel, to coal mines:
Comment:
the regime views the mounting coal
deficits, which it has already acknowledged to be as serious as
during the critical winter of 1953-54. While combat troops have
previously been used as labor forces to assist in harvest, mine
and construction work during periods of critical labor shortages,
this is believed to be the first instance in the Satellites of such
troops being assigned to civilian production for an extended period.
The Hungarian government has been con-
sistently unable to attract adequate civilian labor to the coal mines
notwithstanding the granting of increased benefits and bonuses.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Juin seen making bid for top control of French North Africa:
Marshal
Juin is pressing Premier Mendes-France
for appointment as military commander
for all French North Africa, a post the Gaullists want created.
During an interview which he requested with Mendes- France on
30 November, Juin is reported to have insisted on complete polit-
ical and military liberty of action for at least six months, with
responsibility only to the premier.
Mendes- France is said to consider these
terms unacceptable. The embassy believes, however, that if the
truce in Tunisia goes badly, the government may be forced to buy
Gaullist support in the National Assembly by acquiescing in some
such proposal.
Comment: While resident general in
Morocco in 1947-1951, Juin had control over all French military
forces in North Africa. During this period he was known for his
authoritarian rule, and in 1951 he unsuccessfully tried to unseat
the then sultan of Morocco.
Terrorism in French North Africa would
probably increase sharply if Juin were given a free hand in mili-
tary and political affairs there for even a limited time. Tunisian
nationalists in particular would consider such an appointment a
complete reversal of Mendes-France's promises of autonomy.
Adoption of the Gaullist proposal to create an over-all North Afri-
can military command would also arouse widespread criticism in
the French assembly, particularly from the Socialists and many
Popular Republicans.
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