CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006382
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 11, 1954

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11 May 1954
Copy No,
76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: "9003
AUTFI: HR 70-2
REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Vietnamese oppose French proposal for cease-fire without
political conditions (page 3).
2. Buffer state in Indochina seen as Peiping's minimum demand (page 3).
3. Sweden licenses sale of tankers which may go to Poland (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Rhee continues to oppose UN unification plan (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Dejean says Navarre plan non-operational since last December
(page 5).
6. Internationalization, capitulation or armistice seen as only alter-
natives in Indochina (page 6).
7. Viet Minh reported planning to destroy French column in northern
Laos (page 6).
8. Viet Minh's Dien Bien Phu forces expected to reach delta by late
May (page 7).
9. Rangoon has documentary evidence of Chinese communication with
Burmese Communists (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
10. Saudi Arabia makes "last appeal" for American support in Buraimi
dispute (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Vietnamese oppose ,French proposal for cease-fire without political
conditions:
A member of the Vietnamese delegation at
Geneva told Ambassador Heath on 9 May that
his government was dissatisfied with the
French proposal for a "purely military cease-
fire," He considered the establishment of an internationally supervised
zone along the China border as essential to a stable settlement, and re-
quested American support of the Vietnamese position that military and
political terms must be included in the same agreement.
Comment: In an earlier conversation,
Vietnamese delegates told Heath their government hoped the conference
would fail but would not sabotage it.
2. Buffer state in Indochina seen as Peiping's minimum demand:
The British charg�t Peiping, a member of
the United Kingdom delegation at Geneva, ex-
pressed the belief that the establishment of
a small Communist buffer state, headed by
Ho Chi Minh, in northern Indochina is a minimum Chinese demand. He
feels that Mao's regime has three principal reasons for this: (a) with-
out such a state the Viet Minh embassy in Peiping would have to be
closed, and the Communists would thereby lose face; (b) the military
security of southern China would be threatened; and (c) Peiping would
have difficulty maintaining control of the river system along the Indo-
china border on which the Yunnan tin mining industry depends for trans-
portation.
Comment: Soviet officials have on several
occasions suggested to American and British diplomats, but not to the
French, that partition might be a solution in Indochina. At such times
Soviet diplomats have usually emphasized the Chinese Communists' sen-
sitivity regarding their southern frontier.
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Nisi N.-, 1 N.L.,
While political and military sensitivity in
this area is undoubtedly great, neither the tin mining industry nor any
other important economic activity depends on the river system.
3. Sweden licenses sale of tankers which may go to Poland:
The Swedish government has confirmed to
American officials that export licenses have
been granted and contracts signed for the
sale of two tankers to Lebanese merchants.
these ships are actually destined
for Poland.
The American embassy in Stockholm under-
stands that the first tanker is to be delivered on 18 May, the other at a
later date.
Comment: The acquisition of these tankers
would considerably increase the petroleum-carrying capabilities of the
Soviet bloc, which has been seriously short of ocean-going tankers. One
of the ships, listed at 11,232 gross tons, is larger than any tanker now
owned by the bloc.
The general success of the COCOM embargo
on tankers to the Orbit has apparently led to some Soviet construction
of tankers on ways previously used for cruisers. No change in this em-
bargo is expected in the current revision of COCOM controls.
FAR EAST
Rhee continues to oppose UN unification plan:
President Rhee reiterated on 8 May that he
will not go along with the draft UN proposal
for all-Korean elections until Chinese
Communist troops have all been withdrawn
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from Korea and the North Korean army has surrendered. He said that
after this had been accomplished, he would seek such amendments to
the South Korean constitution "as may be necessary" to hold elections
for an all-Korean legislature.
According to Ambassador Briggs, Rhee is
firm on the question of a North Korean surrender and this position is
as far as he will go.
Comment: Rhee's stand is likely to isolate
him from his allies and to relieve the Communists of the onus for a
conference failure. He probably still hopes that by remaining adamant
on this point, he can obtain a firm United States commitment to build up
the South Korean armed forces.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Dejean says Navarre plan non-operational since last December:
Commissioner General Dejean told the
American charg�n Saigon on 8 May that
the Navarre plan had ceased to be opera-
tional when the Viet Minh thrust across Laos
to the Mekong River last December. Dejean also stated that on 15 March,
two days after the beginning of the battle of Dien Bien Phu, Navarre had
Informed him the battle would be lost.
In view of the French failures to keep Ameri-
can representatives informed in these two instances, the charg�om-
ments that the United States would be well justified in calling on Paris
for a new look at the aid agreement concluded last September and like-
wise "at the entire framework of our military, financial, and political
relationships to this conflict."
Comment: Immediately after the enemy move
across Laos, Navarre stated it might throw his offensive plan somewhat
off schedule, but as of late .Tanuary Dejean told the American ambassa-
dor that Navarre was confident his timetable for a decisive offensive in
the fall had not been upset. On 20 February, Navarre again told Ameri-
can officials that his plan was proceeding on schedule.
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6. Internationalization, capitulation or armistice seen as only alter-
natives in Indochina:
Commissioner General Dejean told the
American charg�n Saigon on 8 May that if
an armistice is not achieved by the next cam-
paign season, the only, alternative to capitu-
lation will be internationalization of the war "on a much larger scale."
He believes by that time, the Viet Minh will have regrouped and been fur-
ther strengthened by Chinese aid.
Comment: General Navarre has also recently
said that the war must be internationalized, and in Paris the secretary
of state for Associated States has observed that the only "real" solution
is in early American intervention.
7. Viet Minh reported planning to destroy French column in northern Laos:
The Viet Minh intends to trap and destroy the
French force of four battalions, composed
largely of Laotians, now some 25 miles south-
west of Dien Bien Phu, according to French
infornitation reported by the American army attach�n Saigon. A pur-
suing group of four Wet Minh battalions now in northern Laos will be
joined by elements of the enemy's Dien Bien Phu troops if the force can
be located.
The army attach�omments that., although it
Is unlikely that the Viet Minh can trap these units, the danger exists
that the battalions will melt away in the face of a Wet Minh advance.
Comment: The four French Union battalions
were sent toward Dien Bien Phu in an attempt to divert several enemy
units from joining the attacking force there.
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8. Viet Minh's Dien Bien Phu forces expected to reach delta by late May:
Viet Minh forces at Dien Bien Phu will begin
to move toward the delta on or shortly after
11 May. By 26 May an initial force of nine
battalibns will have arrived at the delta and be ready for combat.
The American army attach�n Saigon com-
ments that the entire enemy force of 28 battalions can be deployed to
the delta for action by 2 June.
9. Rangoon has documentary evidence of Chinese communication with
Burmese Communists:
captured documents clearly indicated
Indian and Chinese Communist communica-
ion wi e angoon branch of the insurgent Burma Communist Party.
Comment: These documents were apparently
the basis of a government-inspired press campaign in Rangoon this
spring during which it was first explicitly stated that the Burmese Com-
munists were being aided by Peiping.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
10. Saudi Arabia makes "last appeal" for American support in Buraimi
dispute:
Acting Foreign Minister Vassin made a
"last appeal" on 5 May for American sup-
port in the Saudi-British territorial dis-
pute, according to Charg�ones in Jidda.
Yassin stated that the British were cutting off Saudi water supplies in
the Buraimi oasis and that a compromise was imperative "at any cost."
He added that unless American backing were forthcoming, Saudi Arabia
would be required to "sacrifice" its own oil interests and those of the
Arabian-American Oil Company.
Jones comments that although Yassin, in
an attempt to obtain American support, has probably exaggerated the
extent of Saudi willingness to compromise, the urgency of his state-
ment might reflect an increasingly precarious position of Saudi forces
in the Buraimi.
Comment: Yassin's statement is the most
direct warning to the United States thus far that the Saudis are willing
to give ARAMCO's concessionary rights in the disputed territory to a
British oil company in return for political control there.
Contrary to Yassin's statement, Saudi Arabia
would make no "sacrifice" because, by extending its borders, it would
receive royalties from the British.
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