WEEKLY SUMMARY OCTOBER 8, 1976[SANITIZED] - 1976/10/08
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03004448
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October 8, 1976
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Weekly Summary
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CI WS 76-041
No. 0041/76
October 8, 1976
Copy N9 88
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The WEEKLY SUMMARY, issued _ id ornirg by the
Office of Current Intelligence, reports crid cayzec signifi-
cant developments of the week through n Thursday, it
frequently includes mate coordinated wt or prepared
by the Office of Economic Research, the Office of Strateg ic
Research ie Office of Geographic and Cartographic
Rch. and the Directorate of Science and Technology.
Sensiye
Wiirrung No ice
nte gence ScurcEs and Meth d
(WNINTEL)
nvolved
NA *NAL SECURITY INFOR ATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subj ct to Crumnal Sancti
CONTENTS
.1;k4Ef
October 8, 1976
momsintIVeliVrat9MONWM.:..
17 South America: Cooperation Among Military Regimes
Comments arid queries on the contents of this
publication are welcome. They may be
directed to the editor of the Weekly
3.5(c)
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SET
South America:
3r5(c) Cooperation Among Military Regimes
Circumstance and mutual interest are
drawing leaders of the southern cone
countries�Argentina, Chile, Uruguay,
and Paraguay�into closer political and
economic cooperation. The army-con-
trolled governments of these countries
share a ubiquitous fear of communist sub-
version, a growing feeling of isolation
from the rest of the world, and a concern
that they are being abandoned by the US.
Brazil and Bolivia are beginning to par-
ticipate in the relationship but have reser-
vations for one reason or another. A
close-knit alliance of these countries could
have important implications for the US.
The southern cone regimes purport to
be "democratic," but are clearly
authoritarian. The men in power do not
get their support from political groups,
but from the military.
Most of the military leaders are con-
vinced they can exert a modernizing in-
fluence on government through increased
efficiency and rationality. Most believe
they are better qualified to govern than
civilian politicians.
The views of these military leaders
seem to be coalescing into a still-unform-
ulated philosophy of military admin-
istration in which an abhorrence of
disorder, distrust of the old politics, and
dedication to social and economic
progress are the driving forces.
Fear of Subversion
The military leaders believe the
primary national concern should be
security. The principal enemies are leftist
terrorism and international communism.
Preserving the nation, in their view, must
take precedence over personal well-being
and individual freedom.
The preoccupation with security may
seem excessive, but for the countries that
have participated in a struggle against
terrorists, the fight is real. It is true, for
instance, that political violence in Argen-
tina took more lives last year than the
total killed in Northern Ireland during the
past five years. All of the southern cone
countries, to one extent or another, feel
threatened by terrorist violence.
Isolation
Most of the countries suffer from a
poor image in the world press and in inter-
national forums. The military
governments are variously described as
"totalitarian" and "fascist." One
Brazilian government official lamented to
US embassy officers that the Israelis are
praised for staging a raid into Africa
against terrorists, but similar
counterterrorist activities in Brazil are
called excessive and cruel in the world
press.
Leaders in the southern cone also
believe that investigations by unofficial
and official bodies such as Amnesty Inter-
national and the UN Commission on
Human Rights are overzealous and mis-
guided. The leaders think they should
have the right to eliminate terrorists
without foreign interference.
Chilean leaders in particular are weary
of "international interference," and
profess to see the recent murder in
Washington of former ambassador
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Letelier as part of a plot to discredit the
nation. All of these countries believe they
are the victims of an international cam-
paign led by the communists.
Close Cooperation
The original impetus for cooperation
among the southern cone countries
probably came from Chile. Following the
coup in 1973, the Chilean regime was anx-
ious to acquire friends and military equip-
ment for protection against a perceived
threat from Peru.
The Chileans first approached Brazil
and came away with the belief that Brazil
at least would lend a hand indirectly if
Chile were invaded. Chile then ap-
proached Bolivia and proposed a renewal
of discussions on an outlet to the sea.
Diplomatic relations between the two
countries were re-established in February
1975.
The military coup in Argentina last
March brought Buenos Aires into step
with its neighbors. The Argentines in-
creasingly began talking of "new
realities" in hemisphere affairs and
cooperation among all of the southern
cone countries including Brazil.
After a period of concentration on the
internal security situation and the
economy, the Argentine government
finally felt secure enough early last
summer to implement some new foreign
policy initiatives. In June, the Foreign
Ministry sent carefully selected am-
bassadors to Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and
Paraguay. High Argentine officials also
began visiting around the continent to dis-
cuss topics of mutual interest.
The security organizations of the
southern cone countries were already
cooperating in actions against political
refugees and terrorists. This program ap-
parently began in 1974 when security of-
ficials from Argentina, Chile, Uruguay,
Paraguay, and Bolivia agreed to establish
liaison channels and to facilitate the
movement of security officers to and from
each country.
The campaign against subversion was
intensified in June when the group met to
plan further cooperation. Brazil par-
ticipated in these discussions and
reportedly agreed to become a member.
The extent of security cooperation was
evident this summer during several in-
cidents in which joint countersubversive
operations were mounted against refugees
and terrorists.
Security cooperation reportedly now
has been augmented by an agreement
among the governments of Argentina,
Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay to
coordinate positions on international
political matters, particularly the threat
posed by terrorism and communism. The
coordination will be conducted secretly so
that each country will appear to be
operating in an independent manner. The
group hopes to bring Brazil into the
arrangement.
Current Status of Cooperation
Diplomatic activity in the southern
cone has continued. Argentina and Brazil
reportedly have had discussions on
creating a "South Atlantic Treaty
Organization." This naval alliance is en-
visaged as a defense of the South Atlantic
against the Soviet-Cuban presence in
southern Africa. The Brazilians, so far,
have dismissed talk of an alliance as non-
sense, but rumors persist.
Argentina and Paraguay agreed this
month to increase trade by eliminating
customs barriers. They also said they
would stimulate complementary joint in-
dustrial projects. Argentine President
Videla met with Uruguayan President
Mendez and agreed to increase coopera-
tion between the two governments. Videla
is scheduled to visit Chile and Bolivia at
the end of this month.
Chilean diplomacy continues to be
directed against Peru, but improved
relations between the two countries have
diminished the urgency of the Chilean ef-
fort. Chile is continuing to talk with
Bolivia about an outlet to the sea. Chilean
willingness to discuss the problem and
Peruvian intransigence have improved
relations between Chile and Bolivia.
Chile is working to increase trade
relations with Paraguay and Uruguay. It
is already involved in a "joint integration
commission" with Argentina and also
hopes to increase trade with that country.
Chile has concluded that the Andean Pact
restricts development and that there is a
better market for Chilean products in the
southern cone.
Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay also
have been discussing trade and coopera-
tion. Brazil and Paraguay already are in-
volved in the construction of the Itaipu
hydroelectric project on the Parana River.
Paraguay and Uruguay have just launch-
ed a joint commission; its first task is to
eliminate customs restrictions between
the two countries.
Many intangibles will affect the extent
of southern cone cooperation. There are
many reasons why these countries would
be drawn together in some sort of an
alliance, but there are also old an-
tagonisms.
The great imponderable is Brazil�the
only country in the area with true global
aspirations. Until now, Brazil has been
lukewarm toward an extensive alliance
with neighboring countries. Whether or
not Brazil can be enticed into joining the
group may be one key factor in the extent
and direction of southern cone coopera-
tion. A lasting improvement in relations
between Argentina and Brazil would be a
difficult achievement under any con-
ditions, but the leaders of both nations
may now be prepared to try to accomplish
just that.
Continued perception of mutual in-
terest among all of these countries is the
most important element in the future of
their relationship. A prolongation of
terrorist activities in the southern cone
will drive these countries into further
cooperation.
Continued US criticism for human
rights violations will heighten the sense of
abandonment already prevailing in the
area and intensify the feeling of isolation
and frustration. This could foster closer
cooperation and increasing protests
against US interference in internal affairs.
Chilean and Uruguayan leaders have
already suggested publicly that their con-
tinued swallowing of criticism from the
US on human rights issues is not worth
the limited assistance they now get from
Washington.
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