CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003783
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 17, 1954

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Copy No, 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. �6
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Vyshinsky favors reconvening UN General Assembly on Korea
(page 3).
2. Soviet officials re-emphasize problem of European security
(page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Communist military material observed moving into North Korea
(page 4.)
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. V,iet Minh attack on Dien Bien Phu believed delayed several
days (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Egypt uncovers terrorist group within Moslem Brotherhood
(page 5).
6. Egyptian regime slows down neutralism campaign (page 5).
7. Comment on the Israeli-Syrian dispute in the UN (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Disaffection reported in the East German Communist Party
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Strong Italian opposition expected to threatened US reduction
in defense ad (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. �Vyshinsky favors reconvening UN General Assembly on Korea:
UN delegate Vyshinsky has replied affirm-
atively concerning the reconvening of the UN
General Assembly to consider the Korean
question,
Vyshinsky suggested that the session be held
earlier than 9 February.
Comment: The USSR capitalized on Western
differences concerning Soviet and neutral participation in the Korean
political conference during UN discussions last August, and probably
sees an opportunity for reviving this schism if the General Assembly
is reconvened.
Despite the psychological defeat suffered by
the Communists on the repatriation of prisoners, they may now be
willing to discuss this issue in order to exploit the majority report
of the Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission, which blamed the
United Nations side for the failure to complete explanations.
2. Soviet officialsre-emphasize problem of European security:
Officials of the Soviet embassy in London,
in recent conversations with British and
other diplomatic officials, have repeatedly
emphasized that European security is a
problem which can and should be solved by European states with-
out American interference. They have suggested that Soviet tactics
at Berlin will not be to attack EDC, but to dismiss it as unnecessary
since bilateral nonaggression treaties would provide sufficient security.
Soviet representatives in one conversation
expressed the hope that the Berlin conference could settle "little
things" if not major issues, and then named troop withdrawal and
abandonment of American bases as examples of such "little things."
Comment: Soviet officials have suggested
several times to British and French officials that Europeans could
best insure European security.
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FAR EAST
. Communist military material observed moving into North Korea:
Further evidence that the Communists are
introducing military supplies and equipment
into North Korea in violation of the armistice
was obtained in mid-November
three medium tanks and
freight cars entering Korea from Manchuria.
trains carrying munitions and supp les are operated at
night and are unloaded between stations.
on
Comment: There are many unconfirmed
reports that the North Korean army has str_eagthened its armored and.
artillery units since the truce was signed. (This is only the cenonr1
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Viet Minh attack.on Dien Bien Phu believed delayed several days:
General Cogny, French commander in
Tonkin, told the American consul in Hanoi
on 14 January that intensive French air
attacks on Viet Minh communications lines
had delayed for "several days at least" the enemy attack on Dien
Bien Phu. Apparently less confidentu Of the French position than
formerly, Cogny said patrols have proved the garrison to be
entirely surrounded by enemy forces lying just outside artillery
range, and that certainly two and probably three enemy divisions
are in the vicinity.
Cogny stated that the French are averaging
80 transport flights daily in support of the Dien Bien Phu garrison
but that the Viet Minh appears to be making a logistic effort un-
paralleled in the seven years of the war. It is using tens of thou-
sands of coolies and truck convoys composed of as many as 40
vehicles. Cogny also said that French pilots have reported shell-
bursts typical of 37 or 40mm antiaircraft artillery.
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Comment: French apprehension over the
situation at Dien Bien Phu appears justified in view of the expected
reinforcement of enemy troops, which already have a numerical
superiority of about two to one. Whether the Communists are willing
to pay the heavy price in casualties a determined assault on this
strongly fortified post would entail is still conjectural.
The American army attach�as so far been
unable to confirm several French reports that the Wet Minh has
37mm antiaircraft artillery.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Egypt uncovers terrorist group within Moslem Brotherhood:
Comment: The presence in Cairo of the
notorious Iranian terrorist, Navab Safavi, may indicate that such
a group existed within the Brotherhood, which was formally dissolved
on 12 January by the government. Safavi arrived in Egypt a week ago
to preside over a Brotherhood conference.
6. Egyptian regime slows down neutralism campaign:
Efforts to reduce neutralism in Egypt have
been at least momentarily successful,
according to Ambassador Caffery. He
comments that Iraqi prime minister jamali
has helped considerably in changing the Egyptian attitude.
Comment: The Arab League Council, which
has just concluded its sessions in Cairo, apparently was not interested
in Egyptian proposals that the Arab states initiate a neutralist campaign.
Moreover, the current moves against the Moslem Brotherhood suggest
that the government is not yet ready to turn to anti-Western neutralism.
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7. Comment on the Israeli-Syrian dispute in the UN:
The deadlock in the UN Security Council on
the Israeli-Syrian dispute over Israel's diversionary canal project
is likely to be broken by modifications worked out by Soviet and
French UN delegates and the appearance of three new members on
the Security Council. The compromise does not meet Syrian objec-
tions, but is expected to eliminate the threatened Soviet veto, and
two of the new members, Turkey and New Zealand, will probably
give the measure the votes it lacked when the matter is reconsidered
on 21 January. Passage of the modified resolution would throw the
dispute back to General Vagn Bennike, UN truce supervisor in
Palestine,with no prospect of a satisfactory settlement.
Syrian anger over the resolution is already
being directed at the United States. President Shishakli in two lengthy
sessions told American ambassador Moose that the Unified Plan f or
the Jordan Valley increases tension in the area and objected to tying
economic aid to support of the plan. He threatens to begin a water
diversionary project of his own despite known American objections.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Disaffection, reported in the East German Communist Party:
The election of delegates to the East German
Communist Party (SED) Congress to be held
on 24-26 March has been going very badly,
A number
of local barty units have been severely criticized by higher party
authorities for failing to elect individuals nominated by the SED,
and some have been ordered to hold new elections.
The refusal of party members to recognize
"old reliables" as their delegates and the continuing high turnover
in the leadership of local units indicate the serious apathy and
opposition which continue to prevail among SED members.
Comment: Although factionalism and dis-
content have long existed in the SED, the present situation is more
critical because of the need for a united party front prior to the
forthcoming four-power Berlin conference and the party congress.
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Name
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Strong Italian opposition expected to threatened US reduction in defense
aid
Ambassador Luce in Rome anticipates strong
dissatisfaction and severe criticism from
various powerful groups in Italy as a result
of the American government's declared
intention to make the awarding of defense contracts to Italian firms
contingent on the dismissal of Communist workers. These groups,
which are interested in maintaining the profitable status quo, include
some Christian Democrats and industrialists as well as the Communists.
Comment: Italian industrialists and other
rightist-oriented supporters of the Christian Democrats have in the
past given their desire for profits precedence over any move to
eliminate Communism from the nation's life. On the political level,
these same groups have recently been demanding aggressive anti-
Communist measures.
Attempts to screen the worker force in
defense plants would cause further Communist-inspired strikes and
reduce management's profits.
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