CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003772
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 5, 1954

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5 January 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO; TS S C
, NEXT REVIEW DATE: 200 9_ -
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:
ntv '
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Rhee government threatens force to halt Indian screening of
Korean prisoners (page 3).
2. Japanese trade deficit sets record in 1953 (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French apprehensive over defense of Dien Bien Phu (page 4).
4. Philippines believed ready to recognize Associated States of
Indochina (page 5).
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FAR EAST
1. Rhee government threatens force to halt Indian screening of Korean
prisoners:
On 4 January South Korean foreign minister
Pyun asked Ambassador Briggs to inform
General Hull that the South Korean govern-
ment will move armed police into the de-
militarized zone by noon on 6 January to halt the "illegal screening"
of anti-Communist prisoners by Indian custodial troops.
Comment: In a meeting with American
officials on 1 January, Rhee had not supported a similar demand by
Pyun. Therefore, Ambassador Briggs does not anticipate that Pyun's
threat will be implemented.
While it is probable that this move is a
continuation of Rhee's psychological warfare campaign against the
Indians, possibly designed to ensure prompt release of the prisoners
after 22 January, his emotionalism on the prisoner issue could impel
him to act irrationally.
2. Japanese trade deficit sets record in 1953:
Preliminary customs data indicate that
Japan will have a record trade deficit for
1953 of about 1.1 billion dollars, according
to the American embassy. Imports increased
$351,000,000 over 1952 levels, while exports decreased $26,000,000.
The embassy comments that this gap is
partly closed by special American expenditures in Japan, estimated
at about $777,000,000, but a loss of approximately 20 percent of
Japan's accumulated foreign exchange reserves is indicated.
Comment: The Japanese believe that any
reduction of imports would add to the present inflationary situation
which has already hampered efforts to promote exports.
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The recent shift in the balance of political
power favoring Prime Minister Yoshida may enable him to achieve a
sounder economic program to improve Japan's foreign trade position.
Flood damage to the rice crop, however, necessitating greatly in-
creased food imports and domestic agricultural rehabilitation, is
adding to Japan's difficulties.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French apprehensive over defense of Dien Bien Phu:
The American army attach�n Saigon
reports that the French command's optimism
regarding the defense of Dien Bien Phu is
giving way to apprehension. The Viet Minh
probably can take this strongpoint in north-
west Tonkin if it is willing to pay the cost
In casualties.
The French acknowledge that the loss of
Dien Bien Phu would be a major blow to their prestige and would re-
duce their strength by more than the nine battalions recently shipped
from Europe and Africa.
The attach�otes that French Union reserves
are dispersed throughout Indochina at a time which is very favorable for
offensive operations into Viet Minh rear areas north of the Tonkin delta.
Comment: A move against the reported
12 French battalions at Dien Bien Phu by the Viet Minh units in the
area would constitute the largest coordinated attack of the war. Two
Viet Minh divisions and elements of a third are nearby, while another
division is reportedly en route there.
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4. Philippines believed ready to recognize Associated States of Indochina:
told an officer of the American embassy
in Manila on 2 January that Magsaysay had
asked him to go to Indochina as soon as
possible to investigate the militar osition and status of independence
of the three Associated States. asked the advice and assistance
of the embassy.
The embassy officer was left with the distinct
impression that Magsaysay had made up his mind to recognize the Asso-
ciated States in the near future and was seeking a respectable pretext for
doing so.
Comment: Thailand is the only neighboring
country which has recognized the Associated States.
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