CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/12/31

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003770
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 31, 1953

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31 December 1953
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
Chou En-lat says Peiping can guarantee norean peace w111101.11 U 06R
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese official fears political consequences of Viet Minh
offensive (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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5. Prospect of American aid to Pakistan encourages defense discussions
in Middle East (page 5).
6. Egypt may be reassessing its foreign policy (page 6).
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3. Chou En-lai says Peiping can guarantee Korean peace without USSR:
Chinese Communist premier Chou En-lai
recently told the Indian ambassador in Peiping
3.3(h)(2)
that the Chinese are "eager" to have a Korean
political conference and that the American in-
sistence on Soviet participation with a vote is "unreasonable and ridiculous."
Arguing that the American attitude implies a
lack of confidence in Peiping's signature as a guarantee on Korea, Chou
indicated that necessary guarantees should be provided by Communist
China, North Korea, South Korea, and the United States,
Comment: Despite Peiping's frequent hints
that it resents being regarded as a simple instrument of Moscow, it is
believed that the two parties have agreed to have Peiping present the
Communist position in any Korean talks and to preserve Moscow's
freedom of action.
Chou's remarks suggest that the Communists
may propose to drop the Soviet Union from the conference altogether.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese official fears political consequences of Viet Minh offensive:
The immediate importance of the Viet Minh 3.3(h)(2)
drive across central Laos, in the eyes of
Vietnamese nationalists, is the manner in
which it can be played up in France to strengthen
elements in that country favoring a negotiated peace, according to Governor
Tri of Tonkin.
In a conversation with the American consul in
Hanoi on 28 December, Tri cited the "specious but plausible" analogy
that has been made to the 38th Parallel in Korea. He feared that if the
Viet Minh can consolidate its position on the Mekong, while carrying out
maneuvers in northwest Tonkin susceptible of intense propaganda treat-
ment, it can effectively appeal to that portion of French public opinion
which already favors negotiations.
Comment: The political problems posed by
the enemy's move across Laos were reportedly responsible for the French
decision to reinforce the troops in the area. The American army attach�
in Saigon has observed that this reinforcement enabled the Viet Minh to
gain its primary objective, the dispersal of French reserves.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Prospect of American aid to Pakistan encourages defense discussions
in Middle East:
The Pakistani prime minister implied in a
talk with Ambassador Hildreth on 28 Decem-
ber that the Iraqi king and prime minister
might discuss regional defense arrangements
during their visit to Karachi on 17 January,
Mohammed Ali emphasized that his govern-
ment will be acutely embarrassed if the
United States has not decided by then to give
military assistance to Pakistan.
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Also on 28 December, the Turkish prime
minister told Ambassador Warren that the Iraqi ambassador in Ankara
had recently expressed interest in Iraq's early adherence to a possible
defense pact between Turkey and Pakistan.
Comment: Reports that the United States
may grant military aid to Pakistan appear to have stimulated regional
defense thinking in Pakistan, Turkey and Iraq. American assistance
to Pakistan would probably further encourage local initiative in Middle
Eastern defense planning.
6. Egypt may be reassessing its foreign policy:
Egypt's recall for consultation of its envoys
to Moscow, Washington, London, New Delhi, and Karachi indicates
that the Nagib regime is now engaged in a serious attempt to reassess
its future policy toward the West.
Following the recent propaganda campaign
threatening neutralism, the present consultations in Cairo appear to be
aimed at achieving a firm Egyptian position before the meeting of the
Arab League Council scheduled for 9 January.
The lack of progress in recent informal
Anglo-Egyptian talks will probably encourage Egypt to push strongly
in the League sessions for a neutral pan-Arab position.
Despite the probable continuation of strong
anti-Western propaganda, closer Orbit relations are not envisaged, and
Egypt is unlikely for the present to take steps which would close the door
to American economic aid.
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