CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/12/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003757
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 10, 1953

Approved for Release: 2019/07/10 C03003757
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SECURITY INFORMATION
10 December 1953
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO .7-73�
NO CHANCE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 40 Q .9_
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE,: 8.1.*.47.9.. REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Vyshinsky hints at Soviet support of Japanese UN application
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Rhee again seeks American commitment to renew hostilities in
Korea (page 3).
3. Non-Communist diplomats impressed by tour of Manchuria (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4.
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5. Economic deterioration threatens Thailand's military capabilities
(page 5).
6. Lai Chau evacuated by French (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Oil settlement delay may undermine Iranian government (page 6).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. Vyshinsky hints at Soviet support of Japanese UN application:
In response to an expression of hope that
the Soviet Union would support Japan's
application for UN membership, Vyshinsky
told the Japanese UN observer, "In the near
future."
Comment Vyshinsky's remark and the
Soviet abstention in the recent vote on Japan's application for adherence
to the International Court of justice statute are signs that Moscow is
modifying its long-standing opposition to Japanese participation in inter-
national affairs. This may encourage the Japanese government to take
steps which could lead to a restoration of at least limited diplomatic
relations. It may also foreshadow a new Soviet package proposal on
UN admissions including Japan.
The USSR has refused to recognize the San
Francisco Peace Treaty, and last year it vetoed Japan's application for
UN memb_ership, terming japan an American satellite.
FAR EAST
2. Rhee again seeks American commitment to renew hostilities in Korea
President Rhee has apparently decided to
exploit America's desire for a political
conference in an effort to force the United
States into some new agreement, according
to Ambassador Dean. After rejecting the latest UN proposal to the
Communists, Rhee told Dean on 7 December that he would give the
United States complete freedom of action in arranging the conference
in return for a commitment to resume fighting after 90 days of political
discussions. When informed that this was impossible, Rhee accused
the United States of a lack of courage in fighting the USSR, stating,
"If you don't want to fight, get out."
Dean believes that Rhee has decided now
is a better time to force the United States into fighting than after the
conference convenes.
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Comment: Rhee probably is making
one more attempt to gain American support for efforts to unify Korea
militarily. He may also still want to block the conference which he
feels could result only in compromising South Korea's position.
Since Rhee is under no illusions regarding
American determination not to resume hostilities, however, he may
have revived this issue in an attempt to gain new concessions. These
could include a firm American commitment to build up South Korea's
air and naval forces, meeting Rhee's terms on the economic program,
prompt Senate ratification of the mutual defense treaty, or support for
South Korea's position in the proposed talks with Japan.
3. Non-Communist diplomats impressed by tour of Manchuria:
Chinese Communist industrial progress
made a "strong impression" on the Indian,
. Pakistani, Burmese, Swedish, and Swiss
chiefs of mission during their recent tour of Manchurian cities. Their
Chinese Communist escorts emphasized Soviet assistance in the con-
struction program.
comments that any favorable
impressions the Asian diplomats transmit to their government may
prepare the way for Soviet overtures toward those states.
Comment: The diplomats undoubtedly were
shown numerous new construction projects in Manchuria which have re-
ceived Soviet equipment.
Asian governments recognizing Peiping
have proved susceptible to the argument that the regime is primarily
an expression of Chinese nationalism aiming at popular welfare. They
have in the past proved vulnerable to coordinated maneuvers by Moscow
and Peiping to exploit "neutralist" sentiment in the Far East.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4.
5. Economic deterioration threatens Thailand's military capabilities:
3.3(h)(
A three months' study has convinced Ameri-
can officials in Bangkok that Thailand's eco-
nomic position is deteriorating at a rate which
will not permit the government to continue
military expenditures at current levels for more than two or three years.
Even now, the Thai armed forces are only barely capable of maintaining
internal security.
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The officials believe that without increased
American support, Thailand's effectiveness as an anti-Communist force
will certainly deteriorate.
Comment: In the postwar period Thailand
enjoyed a greater prosperity than the other Southeast Asian countries.
Its present economic difficulties derive from the present buyers' market
in rice and the decline in prices of other exports.
6. Lai Chau evacuated by French:
French forces evacuated Lai Chau in northwest 3.3(h)(2)
Tonkin during several days prior to 9 December,
according to the American army attach�n
aigon. The garrison of three battalions and
7 auxiliary companies is now at the new French
stron point of Dien Bien Phu, south of Lai Chau. Meanwhile the Viet Minh
304th Division has moved northwestward in the direction of Dien Bien Phu.
Comment: One enemy division, the 316th, is
near Lai Chau, which as the capital of the Thai federation had long been
the base for French-supported Thai guerrilla operations. Dien Bien Phu,
also in Thai territory, is more easily defended and is better located for
stopping a thrust into Laos from the north.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Oil settlement delay may undermine Iranian government:
Ambassador Henderson reported on 6 Decem- 3.3(h)(2)
ber, while visiting Baghdad, that unless the
British make energetic moves to settle the
Anglo-Iranian oil dispute, the Iranian govern-
men e y ose e self-confidence necessary for decisive action
and fall.
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Henderson pointed out that the government
is in a mood to move quickly and courageously toward an agreement
which will restore oil revenues while taking account of the nationaliza-
tion laws. He cautioned, however, that this mood is sure to change if
the British procrastinate in opening negotiations and then introduce
clearly unacceptable demands.
The Iranian government, he warned, would
prefer resignation to a capitulation which would permit the Anglo-Iranian
Oil Company to regain its former position in the country.
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