CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/11/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003741
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 18, 1953

Approved for Release: 2019/07/10 C03003741
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18 November 1953
Copy No., 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO -5-7
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 200.9
AUTH: HIR 70-2
DATE: if2//4//r..2. REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
Vee Yugoslavia reportedly interested in diverting Austrian trade
from Trieste to Yugoslav port (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet light industry to receive higher supply priority than
heavy industry (page 3).
FAR EAST
te:I/South Korean president pla
4. Chinese Communists find
Formosa .a :e 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Vietnamese political maneuvers threaten Tonkin administration
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Le Iran increases pressure for American military aid (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Austrian ex-foreign minister attributes dismissal to his stand
against USSR (page 6).
Adenauer angles for American intervention on Saar (page 7).
toe Bidault reportedly ready to resign on foreign policy (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Yugoslavia reportedly interested in diverting Austrian trade from
Trieste to Yugoslav port:
Comment: In a public report of his con-
versations in Vienna in the second week of November, Popovic made
no reference to Rijeka but stated that he had discussed freight rates
for Austrian goods to the port of Trieste. Use of Rijeka might have
some appeal to Austria if Trieste becomes an Italian city and Italy
does not offer effective free port guarantees.
Tito's speech on 15 November contained
an outright statement that he expected Italy to get the city of Trieste.
Efforts to persuade the Austrians to use Rijeka would be a logical
preparation for such an event.
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet light industry to receive higher supply priority than heavy
industry:
The USSR Council of Ministers on 5 October
ordered the supply ministries to give first
priority to enterprises manufacturing con-
sumer goods and to fulfill their orders for
raw materials and equipment regardless of other commitments.
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Comment: This is the first indication
that Soviet light industry will generally receive higheroriorities
for raw materials tn the heavy industrial ministries
FAR EAST
3. South Korean president plans visit to Formosa:
South Korean foreign minister Pyun told
General Taylor on 16 November that Presi-
dent Rhee wishes to visit Chiang Kai-shek
in Formosa in about one week. Pyun said
the purpose of Rhee's proposed two-day trip is to return Chiang's 1949
visit to Korea and to discuss a joint statement regarding a Far Eastern
anti-Communist pact.
The embassy in Seoul reports there are no
indications that the proposed visit is in response to a specific invita-
tion from Chiang or even that he has agreed to it.
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Comment: Following discussions in October
between Rhee and Chinese Nationalist representatives on a mutual defense
treaty, both governments indicated to American officials that such a pact
would be impractical without American support. It is known that Rhee
is thinking of asking Chiang to join him in an appeal to the Asian people
on the need for combating communism.
4. Chinese Communists find "evidence� of Nationalist BW:
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Comment: The Peiping regime may
be preparing "evidence" to support charges of Chinese Nationalist
bacterial warfare against the coastal areas opposite Formosa.
Peiping used this same technique in its past propaganda charges
that American forces had conducted BW operations against North
Korea, Manchuria, and North CIO.na.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Vietnamese political maneuvers threaten Tonkin administration:
The American consul in Hanoi reports
that Premier Tam is attempting to bring
about the replacement of Governor Tri
of Tonkin by a nonentity who has bought
his way o-in uence. The consul points out that if this maneuver
succeeds, the consequent demoralization of the Tonkin administra-
tion might largely negate whatever military victories may be won.
Comment: The conflict between Tri
and Tam is essentially one between the nationalism of Tonkin and
the landlord-merchant aristocracy of Saigon. Tri has also been
mentioned lately as a successor to Tam. Once before, with French
backing, Tam broke up a Tonkin administration under Tri, with the
result that an incompetent governor was appointed.
The final decision in this case rests with
Bao Dal, who may permit Tam to triumph over one of Vietnam's
most outspoken nationalists in order to allay French fears that
Vietnam will withdraw from the French Union.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iran increases pressure for American military aid:
Ambassador Henderson in Tehran reports
that in his last four conversations with the
shah, the latter has insisted that an early
American decision be made regarding
future Iranian defense forces.
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Comment: The interest of the shah in
developing a stronger Iranian army has been evident for a long time.
He has repeatedly inquired concerning American views of the proper
function of the Iranian army, apparently hoping thus to determine the
nature and extent of possible American military aid.
The shah's indecisiveness and the lack of
a native military tradition and potential are serious obstacles to de-
velopment of a modern army in Iran.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Austrian ex-foreign minister attributes dismissal to his stand
against USSR:
Karl Gruber told Ambassador Thompson
on 15 November that his dismissal from
the Austrian cabinet last week was due
primarily to his support of controls on
strategic materials and to the belief among persons "around Chancel-
lor Raab" that negotiations with the Soviet Union could not succeed
while he was foreign minister.
Gruber defended the publication of his
controversial memoirs as part of his policy of demonstrating that
negotiations with Moscow can produce only limited results. He
believes that the government may still be tempted to strike a
"dangerous bargain" with Moscow.
Gruber said that former chancellor
Figl will be appointed his successor.
Comment: There is no convincing
evidence that Gruber seriously opposed the government's recent
policy of "removing obstacles to the state treaty."
Figl, chancellor from 1945 until February
of this year, has a reputation for levelheadedness.
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8. Adenauer angles for American intervention on Saar:
In conversation with General Gruenther
and Ambassador Conant on 16 November,
Chancellor Adenauer indicated that he still
had some doubts that the current French-
German efforts to reach a Saar settlement would be successful. He
suggested that American intervention might be required. He also
asked General Gruenther about the possibility of British-American
agreement to rearm West Germany should the French fail to ratify
the EDC treaty.
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Adenauer added, however, that the way
was still open for agreement in the Saar talks, and that a 14 November
message from French foreign minister Bidault seemed to have improved
the situation.
Comment: In view of hints by other West
German officials in recent weeks that American intervention may be
necessary, it appears likely that the Bonn government will ask for
such action as soon as negotiations reach an impasse, which appears
most likely to occur on the economic aspects of a settlement.
9. Bidault reportedly ready to resign on foreign policy:
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Comment: Bidault had voiced a similar
threat to Secretary Dulles on 16 October. The French assembly has
not hesitated in the past to provoke a crisis on the eve of an important
international conference. In view of the imminence of the presidential
elections, however, the government may be able to win a statement of
support from the assembly.
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