CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/04/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003295
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: April 26, 1957

Approved for Release: 2019/12/04 C03003295
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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
26 April 1957
Copy No.
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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REVIEWER
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CONTENTS
T. DEVELOPMENTS IN JORDAN
66 (page 3).
015 2. BRITISH SEE BID FOR MIDDLE EAST TALKS IN BULGANIN
LETTER (page 5).
A/03. BRITISH SEEN FAVORABLE TO NATO COMMON STOCK-
PILE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (page 6).
06 4. IRAQI OFFICERS ARRESTED FOR ANTIREGIME ACTIVITIES
page 7).
A "
v -5. LAOTIAN PRIME MINISTER REPORTEDLY PLANS TO
RESIGN (page 8).
4/56. WEST GERMAN PROBLEMS WITH STATUS-OF-FORCES
AGREEMENTS (page 9).
7. OVERSEAS CHINESE ISSUE IN SOUTH VIETNAM MAY BE
REACHING CRITICAL STAGE (page 10).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
(page 11).
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1. DEVELOPMENTS IN JORDAN
Comment on:
Relative quiet prevailed in Jordan on
25 April following the new Hashim
cabinet's imposition of martial law and
curfew, and the dissolution of all polit-
ical parties. The cabinet will probably
be dominated by the pro-Western leader
Samir Rifai, who is deputy premier and
foreign minister. Although five of the
seven new cabinet members are from
West Jordan, the center of Palestinian
extremism, all the ministers have rela-
tively conservative pro-Western records.
The one newcomer to cabinet status is a
representative of the Bedouin tribes, which
are providing the king with his armed sup-
port.
Meanwhile, the Syrians and refugee Jor-
danian nationalists continue to press Egypt
for a decision on joint action 'to'forestall
consolidation of King Hussain's position.
a mission
representing the Syrian general staff and refugee Jordanian
leftist military and political leaders was to go to Cairo
to discuss with Nasr and Commander in Chief Amer
joint action to be undertaken "before events deteriorate in
Jordan:' The Syrians were reported to be particularly appre-
hensive over action to be taken if Hussain requested interven-
tion by the Iraqi army, and to have decided to engage the Iraqi
army if it entered Jordan. According to Beirut radio, Syrian
president Quwatli flew to Cairo for a four-hour "crucial" con-
ference with Nasr on 25 April.
On 24 April, King Hussain is reported to
have notified Cairo and Damascus that unless Syrian troops
were withdrawn from Jordan within 48 hours, Iraqi troops would
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be brought in.
the Jordanian command had asked that Saudi forces in West
Jordan prepare to move two battalions into the towns of
Nablus and Ramallah to assist Jordanian units in maintain-
ing order.
Saudi and Iraqi officers had conferred on the Jordanian-Iraqi
border.
A limited precautionary mobilization of
reserves appeared to be continuing in Israel as of 25 April.
The American embassy in Tel Aviv tentatively assesses this
to be a result of both mounting tension in Jordan and the need
for troops to participate in Israel's Independence Day celebra-
tions on 5-6 May.
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CONFIDENTIAL
2. BRITISH SEE BID FOR MIDDLE EAST TALKS IN
BULGANIN LETTER
The British Foreign Office, in a pre-
liminary appraisal of Premier Bulganin's
letter to Prime Minister Macmillan,
feels that it contains a veiled bid to par-
icipa e in a s on the Middle East with the United States,
Britain and France. While a definitive British attitude has
not yet been formed, the Foreign Office seems to think that
the USSR cannot be excluded indefinitely from talks concern-
ing developments in the Middle East.
Comment There have been no recent indications that
London believes the situation in the Middle
East could be eased by seeking an accommodation with the
USSR. Macmillan may nevertheless again be considering a
trip to Moscow.
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3. BRITISH SEEN FAVORABLE TO NATO COMMON
STOCKPILE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Britain might support the French sug-
gestion for a NATO "common stockpile"
of nuclear weapons under SACEUR con-
trol if the plan did not interfere with the
Tavored British position in obtaining US nuclear components,
in the view of the American embassy in London. Senior
British officials, in their anxiety to deter additional coun-
tries from producing their own nuclear weapons, had earlier
suggested that the United States might prevent this by sup-
plying such weapons.
Comment
Any method of dissuading European
nations from producing nuclear weapons
would be attractive to London. London's concern is so great
that it would probably consider contributing to such a stock-
pile, or even surolvina nuclear weapons directly to Francp
or Germany
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4. IRAQI OFFICERS ARRESTED FOR. ANTI-
REGIME ACTIVITIES
A group of younger Iraqi army officers,
including a colonel, were arrested on
16 April for antigovernment activities,
according to a well-informed diplomatic
source. It is not known whether the arrests were carried
out to stop an actual conspiracy, or as a warning to disaf-
fected officers.
Comment There have been a number of reports of
discontent among the younger Iraqi offi-
cer element because of what they consider to be Premier
Nun i Saides anti-Nasr, pro-Western policy. It is not be-
lieved, however, that the Iraqi army is seriously disaffected.
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5. LAOTIAN PRIME MINISTER REPORTEDLY PLANS
TO RESIGN
Comment on:
Prime Minister. Souvanna Phouma will
resign in May and a political crisis will
result, in the opinion of a high-ranking
Laotian officer. The officer predicted
that Deputy Premier Katay and Independent Party leader
Phoui would each prevent the other from obtaining majority
support, and that the king would refuse to offer Prince Pet-
sarath the premiership. Other reports have also stated that
Souvanna has threatened to submit his resignation if he has
still not achieved a settlement of the Pathet Lao problem by
the time the National Assembly convenes on 11 May. Sou-
vanna's resignation would pose the threat of a prolonged cab-
inet crisis at a time when the Pathet Lao has stepped up
military pressure in the two northern provinces.
Souvanna may be persuaded not to resign,
however, by the continued feeling that he is in a unique posi-
tion, because of his kinship with Pathet Lao chief Souphannou-
vong, to achieve the peaceful reunification of Laos. It is also
known that the Pathet Lao has
been anxious to keep Souvanna in power, fearing that a more
pro-Western premier might succeed him. It may there-
fore seek to encourage the premi believe that a satisfac-
tory settlement is still possible.
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6.. WEST GERMAN PROBLEMS WITH STATUS-OF-
FORCES AGREEMENTS
Commenting on Bonn's suggestion to
suspend the status-of-forces negotia-
tions, Ambassador Bruce remarks
that although West German officials
are undoubtedly seeking a negotiating advantage, they also
genuinely fear an agreement unacceptable to the Bundestag.
Bruce points out that on two of the most difficult unresolved
items in the negotiations--relating to freedom of the West-
ern forces in Germany to maneuver, and to Allied retention
of real estate requisitioned from the Germans--the Allied
proposals not only exceed rights granted by the Bonn Con-
ventions and those under status-of-forces agreements in
other NATO countries, but also run counter to German laws.
There is intense public interest in both
these subjects, he observes, since German citizens want
their houses and property back and do not want to be dis-
turbed by maneuvers. He thinks German unwillingness to
come to grips with these hard problems is chiefly respons-
ible for the proposal to end the negotiations.
Comment The West German government would un-
doubtedly consider itself in a perilous
position, in view of the coming election, if it announced highly
unpopular status-of-forces agreements on maneuvers and
property requisitioning,at,this time.
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7. OVERSEAS CHINESE ISSUE IN SOUTH VIETNAM MAY BE
REACHING CRITICAL STAGE
Comment on:
Tension between Taipei an aigon con-
tinues to increase as a result of enforce-
ment of South Vietnam's decree imposing
mandatory citizenship on locally born
Chinese. Taipei's insistence that the
Chinese be given the freedom to choose
their citizenship, repeated in a diplomatic
note of protest dated 23 April, is unac-
ceptable to the Ngo Dinh Diem government.
Pressure on the Overseas Chinese to com-
ply with the Vietnamese government's decree is likely to in-
crease, despite the economic dislocation which is bound to
result. Shops and businesses owned by noncitizen Chinese
engaged in eleven important businesses proscribed to fore-
eigners, in which the Chinese predominate, are already being
closed down in the provinces and there are signs that enforce-
ment is about to be tightened in Saigon. There are not enough
Vietnamese with the necessary capital and experience to take
over these businesses.
Saigon's uncompromising attitude and Taipei's
ineffective protection have made the harassed Overseas Chinese
vulnerable to Communist exploitation. There is also a danger
of the outbreak of violence between the Vietnamese and local
Chinese.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 350, 25 April 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities by either Israel or the
Arab states is improbable in the immediate future. Un-
settled issues and tensions, particularly the internal situ-
ation l.n Jordan, continue to constitute possibilities for
violence. Should there be intensified disorders or civil
war in Jordan, military intervention by neighboring Arab
states probably would occur, and Israeli intervention
would be a possibility.
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