CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003286
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 2, 1955

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2 February 1955
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. Li
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE' ,
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: t OZ,K 30 REVIEWEF
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Bohlen sees Soviet move to facilitate Peiping acceptance of UN
invitation (page 3).
2, Indonesian views on agenda of Afro-Asian conference reported
(page 3).
3� Turkey will probably accept invitation to attend Afro-Asian con-
ference (page 4)
FAR EAST
4. Japanese assessment of American attitude toward a Japan-Orbit
rapprochement (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. France opposes meeting on Indochina during Bangkok conference
(page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
6. India to sign agreement for Soviet steel plant (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Fall of Mendes-France might not hurt prospects for Paris accords
(page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Bohlen sees Soviet move to facilitate Peiping acceptance of UN
Invitation:
Ambassador Bohlen feels that one pur-
pose in Moscow's introduction in the UN
Security Council of a resolution calling
for debate on American aggression was
o open the way for eiping to attend in line with the terms of ref-
erence demanded by Chou En-lai. Bohlen feels the Soviet resolu-
tion serves a dual purpose in supporting Peiping's position and
seeking to avoid a major conflict. He believes that Chinese Com-
munist acceptance of a UN invitation is implied in Molotov's state-
ment of 31 January and his offer to transmit British views on the
Formosa situation to Peiping.
.2. Indonesian views on agenda of Afro-Asian conference reported:
a single dissent
would be sufficient to veto any proposal for the agenda.
2 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
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the
agenda would include "three main points." These are the exten-
sion of security and world peace, "discussion" of assistance to
colonial areas, and consideration of economic,matters in general.
Comment: The unanimity rule regard-
ing the conference agenda will encourage maximum attendance
and may help to limit an anticipated Chinese Communist effort
to dominate the meeting.
The main topics for discussion
are a condensation of the declared
purposes of the meeting.
3. Turkey will probably accept invitation to attend Afro-Asian con-
ference:
On 29 January Turkey received through
the Indian embassy in Ankara a formal invi-
tation to attend the Afro-Asian conference.
Prime Minister Menderes is personally consid-
ering e a.visaelty o Turkish representation.
Ambassador Warren believes that Ankara
will accept the invitation in view of the American attitude and the
probability of other non-Communist representation, Deputy Prime
Minister Zorlu is being considered as Turkey's delegate,
Comment: The Turks can be counted on
to seek American guidance, and if Zoriu represents Turkey, he
can be expected to champion Western objectives.
in the same direction,
2 Feb 55
Turkish acceptance might influence Iran
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FAR EAST
4. Japanese assessment of American attitude toward a Japan-Orbit
rapprochement:
there is little Ameri-
can opposition to Japanese recognition of the USSR and that Wash-
ington recognizes that Japan is able to bargain with Moscow over
questions of territory, repatriation of Soviet-held prisoners, and
fishing rights.
Comment: Prime Minister Hatoyama's
enthusiasm for immediate�dT.Fomalic relations with the Orbit will
make it difficult for the Japanese government to maintain a dis-
tinction between negotiations with the USSR and Communist China.
Hatoyama predicted on 1 February that Japan would eventually
recognize Communist China as well as the Chinese Nationalist gov-
ernment.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. France opposes meeting on Indochina during Bangkok conference:
Minister for the Associated States La
Chambre and Premier Mendes-France
are both opposed to holding the next
meeting of British, French and Ameri-
can officials on Indochina in conjunction with the 23 February
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Manila pact conference in Bangkok. They fear that a meeting
under such circumstances would be regarded in France as "bel-
licose" and that the Viet Minh would derive propaganda advan-
tages from the presence of Generals Collins and Ely.
La Chambre continues to envisage a
full-dress meeting�preferably in Washington--including military,
economic and political experts which would "get at the bottom of
things." He stated that the French are convinced that decisions
on whether to continue to support Diem and on what basis, and
what Bao Dails future role is to be, should be reached before
15 March. According to La Chambre, the French are now con-
vinced that popular support for Diem has increased, but fear
that the Diem government has made no "administrative progress."
Comment: La Chambre has been one of
the strongest advocates of Diem's removal. Despite this recog-
nition of the Vietnamese premier's growing popularity, the French
are still seeking methods to curtail his authority, perhaps through
periodic reviews of his accomplishments. In addition, the French
may increase pressure for Bac) Dalb return to Vietnam in the
hope that he will control Diem's anti-French proclivities.
SOUTH ASIA
6. India to sign agreement for Soviet steel plant:
An agreement between the governments
of India and the Soviet Union to erect a
steel plant in India will be signed in New
Delhi on 2 February, according to an Indian broadcast of 31 Janu-
ary,
Comment: This agreement is a political
victory for the liberal Nehru wing of the Congress Party, which
favors rapid socialization of India.
Technical planning for Indian steel pro-
duction is in such a rudimentary state that the country could well
have waited to absorb the output of the new West German plant ex-
pected to be in production in 1958 and to consider the expansion of
existing privately owned failties before accepting the Soviet offer,
2 Feb 55
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Fall of Mendes-France might not hurt prospects for Paris accords:
The American embassy in Paris believes
that overthrow of the Mendes-France gov-
ernment on the North African issue--now
considered a 50-50 chance--would not
necessarily involve a "disastrous delay" in action on the Paris ac-
cords by the Council of the Republic. The embassy estimates that
a cabinet crisis now would last about two to three weeks.
The embassy points out that Mendes- France
might be succeeded by someone more acceptable to the Council of
the Republic, possibly former premier Rene Mayer or Foreign
Minister Edgar Faure. The council might then be more willing to
approve the Paris accords without amendments which would require
their return to the National Assembly.
Comment: The constitutional deadline
for council action on the accords is now 11 March. In the event
of a cabinet crisis lasting a week or more, however, this dead-
line would be postponed for a period equivalent to the time elapsed
before the formation of a new government.
Mendes- Frances chances in the forth-
coming vote depend on the position of the key Radical Socialist
faction headed by Mayer. Although one of the premier's most out-
spoken critics, Mayer voted for the Paris accords in December
and will probably be unwilling to provoke a crisis until after the
council has acted on them.
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