CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/11/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03002346
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: November 4, 1955

Approved for Release: 2019/09/16 CO3002346
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4 November 1955
Copy No.
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO -513
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
n DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _ 4'0 /
AUTH: HR 70-2 deloP
DATE: _ REVIEWER:
v
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
/ '1157/P17 174/
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CONTENTS
1. ISRAELI-EGYPTIAN FRONTIER SITUATION (page 3).
2. EARLY ELECTIONS NOW EXPECTED IN FRANCE (page 4).
3. BREAKDOWN OF LAOTIAN NEGOTIATIONS EXPECTED
SOON (page 5).
4. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT REPORTED WORKING TO
RESTORE LEFTIST GOVERNMENT (page 6).
5. BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT'S REPORTED HEART ATTACK
(page 7).
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1. ISRAELI-EGYPTIAN FRONTIER SITUATION
e Israeli raid in the El Auja area
n the night of 2-3 November again
nderscores Tel Aviv's determina-
ion to maintain an unyielding Iron-
ier policy and to permit no encroach-
ment on Israeli soil. It also appears
intended to force the Western powers, which had not
satisfied Foreign Minister Sharett's requests for secu-
rity assurances and arms, to become actively and favor-
ably concerned with Israeli security.
Israel carried out extensive mobiliza-
tion before it acted in El Auja, and the American military
attach�n Tel Aviv believes that when it initiated the raid,
Israel was prepared for "any eventuality."
Serious violations of the armistice al-
ways raise the possibility that the fighting may grow into
general hostilities, even though the indications are that
neither side is at present prepared to resort to war.
Major Israeli assaults may, however, eventually lead
Egyptian prime minister Nasr to feel that he must resort
to war or lose the support of his army and his people.
4 Nov 55
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2. EARLY ELECTIONS NOW EXPECTED IN FRANCE
Elections for the French National
Assembly will almost certainly be
held by mid-December, even though
the constitution gives the Council
of the Republic two months in which
to express its views on the bill voted
on 3 November dissolving the assembly.
The council is expected to give prompt
backing to the conservative deputies
who pushed the dissolution vote through
the assembly.
The government may now decide to
make a last appeal to the assembly to reconsider the prob-
lem of electoral reform, a dozen proposals for which were
debated before the 3 November vote. Such action must be
taken by 13 November if the elections are to be held in
December, however, and in view of the reluctance of much of
Faure's coalition to accept a change, it is likely the current
system will be retained--a type of proportional representa-
tion which puts a premium on party alliances.
Nevertheless, Mendes- France can still
be expected to try to marshal opponents of early elections.
He will attempt to press the council for delay and, in a
last effort to effect electoral reform, try to consolidate his
control of the Radical Socialists at their national congress
this week.
The Communists voted for dissolution
of the assembly apparently in the hope of improving their
chances for alliances with the Socialists, who may be pre-
vented from affiliation with the center groups to the same
extent as in the 1951 elections. An increase in local Com-
munist-Socialist electoral alliances is likely. In any event,
Communist representation in the assembly will probably
be increased because of friction between the non-Communist
groups.
4 Nov 55
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3. BREAKDOWN OF LAOTIAN NEGOTIATIONS EXPECTED
SOON
Crown Prince Savang believes the
negotiations between the Laotian
government and the Pathet Lao will
be broken off by 10 November.
Savang states that even if the Pathets make last-minute
concessions, it is too late for them to participate in the
December elections.
At the close of the negotiations the
government hopes to get the International Control Com-
mission's support for an appeal to Britain and the USSR
as cochairmen of the 1954 Geneva conference regarding
its dispute with the Pathet Lao.
Comment Pathet Lao forces will probably in-
crease military pressure in the two
northern provinces following a final break in negotia-
tions.
in early October,
the Pathets were ordered by the Wet Minh to increase re-
connaissance in preparation for a large-scale offensive
during the winter dry season.
Savang said earlier that in the event of
a breakdown in negotiations, he would strongly favor a
study of the situation in northern Laos by the Manila pact
powers and action by them should the Viet Minh intervene
in force.
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4. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT REPORTED WORKING TO
RESTORE LEFTIST GOVERNMENT
President Sukarno has sounded out
the National Party, the Nandlatul
Ulama (NU), and several minor par-
ties to ascertain whether a govern-
ment similar to the All cabinet could be reconstructed,
The
"Ali formula" would include Communist support of the
government but not participation in it. Both the NU and
the moderate wing of the National Party reportedly re-
jected the proposal.
The American embassy comments
that Sukarno apparently regards the unexpectedly large
National Party vote in the recent elections as an endorse-
ment of his own political approach and this may encour-
age him to proceed further in his experiments with the
far left.
Comment Sukarno, who continues to be the most
popular political leader in Indonesia,
has developed a strong prejudice against the anti-Commu-
nist Masjumi, which leads the present cabinet. It was
largely as a result of his influence that the National-led
All cabinet, which excluded the Masjumi and depended on
Communist support, was established in 1953 and lasted
for two years.
The outcome of a struggle for leader-
ship within the National Party may be the principal factor
in determining whether Indonesia returns to the "Ali
formula" for its next government. Sukarno is reported
to favor the left wing, which apparently is still willing
to accept Communist support.
4 Nov 55
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5. BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT'S REPORTED HEART ATTACK
Following a light heart attack on
3 November, Brazilian president
Caf�ilho has reportedly been or-
dered to take a complete rest. His
condition is described as not serious.
Should Caf�ie or resign because of
Ill-health, his position would be filled initially by the
president of the Chamber of Deputies, Carlos Luz. With-
in the following 30 days the Brazilian Congress would be
constitutionally required to elect a successor for the re-
mainder of Caf� term, which ends on 31 January 1956.
Until the inauguration at that time of President-elect
Kubitschek, however, the government is unlikely to in-
stitute any major policy changes.
Luz, a federal deputy from the state
of Minas Gerais since 1945 and president of the chamber
since February 1955, belongs to the same party as Kubi-
tschek, but is not considered one of his supporters. Luz
is generally considered pro-US.
4 Nov 55
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