CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03001381
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 11, 1954

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11 July 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 41 57
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
D DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE- 20/0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:-.11V6C2._ REVIEWER;
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
Comment on Iranian concern over Soviet warnings (page 3
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Vietnamese retreat on territorial demands (page 3).
3. Two Viet Minh divisions continue preparations for possible
attack (page 4).
4. Authorization of French conscripts for Indochina would not
imply renewed military effort (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Saudi king may abrogate military agreements with US (page 6).
6. Iraqi foreign minister comments on Middle East problems (page 7).
7. Ex-premier Nun i Said decides not to participate in next Iraqi
government (page 8).
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1
GENERAL
1. Comment on Iranian concern over Soviet warnings:
Soviet ambassador Lavrentyev's 8 July
memorandum to the Iranian Foreign
Ministry appears to be part of a diplo-
matic offensive aimed at blocking closer
Iranian ties with the West. The memoran-
dum demands an explanation of reports
concerning "certain assurances" which Prime
this er a e. i s a legedly given Ambassador Henderson on Middle
East defense plans. It is similar in tone and content to the 2 July
Pravda editorial which Lavrentyev publicized in Tehran by the unusual
means of distributing individual copies to parliament and government
members.
Henderson considered the Pravda piece as
the opening gun of a Soviet campaign to prevent the conclusion or rati-
fication of an oil agreement. Tehran has already transmitted to Moscow
a mild protest against the Soviet press attack--a protest which never-
theless contained an assurance that Iran had no intention of joining a
Western defense bloc.
The Iranian reaction to the Pravda-
Lavrentyev gambit is typical of the confusion and uncertainty which
Soviet pressures usually produce in Iran. Even Moscow's recent
conciliatory gestures on financial and border problems had inspired
concern over Soviet intentions among Iranian officials. The latest
Soviet move may be designed to capitalize on that fear; it will probably
cause still more vacillation and caution on the part of the Iranian
government in its relations with the West.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Vietnamese retreat on territorial demands:
A Vietnamese cabinet minister outlined to
Ambassador Heath on 9 July a proposal that
Premier Diem will present to Premier
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Mendes- France for a territorial settlement in connection with an
armistice in Vietnam. Diem proposes that Hanoi be held at all costs;
otherwise he will refuse to accept any armistice agreed to by the
French.
The proposal further specifies that the
Wet Minh be permitted to retain the areas it now holds in the delta
and approximately the northern third of Annam, the central part of
Vietnam. The remainder of Annam would be allocated to the Viet-
namese government but the Viet Minh would be permitted to "adminis-
tern' a portion thereof. The Viet Minh would be excluded from Cochin-
china except for an enclave to the south of Cambodia.
Comment: Heretofore, the Vietnamese have
forthrightly rejected any idea of partition and have insisted that the
abandoned province in the south delta must be regained.
If Diem refuses to accept any armistice
involving the loss of Hanoi, the French may be able to persuade Bao
Dai, who is in France, to sign it.
3. Two Viet Minh divisions continue preparations for possible attack:
According to the American army attach�
in Saigon, one regiment of the Viet Minh
312th Division is conducting probing attacks
in the Vinh Yen area which have resulted
in the loss of three Vietnamese-manned
reconnaissance units of the 312th Division re-
portedly are active from Son Tay to Phuc Yen. Similar units of the
308th Division continue active between Bac Ninh and Luc Nam (see
map, p. 5).
Comment: This is the first report of
action by combat elements-OT the 312th Division since the fall of Dien
Bien Phu. The movement of this unit from rest areas at Phu Tho was
accomplished within the past two weeks and the entire division appar-
ently is now ready to be committed to combat.
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4. Authorization of French conscripts for Indochina would not imply
renewed military effort
Ambassador Dillon in Paris believes that
the French National Assembly will approve
the use of conscripts in Indochina only if,
after 20 July, the safety of the French
expealuonary rs to depend upon it. He points out that
Premier Mendes-France, in telling the As embly on 6 July that con-
scripts would have to be used if negotiations fail, did not imply that
France would then continue the war to stem Communist aggression.
Dillon further believes that if Mendes- France
falls after obtaining Assembly approval to use draftees, a successor
government will be under greater pressure to come to terms with the
Communists.
Comment The question of using con-
scripts as the only alternative-To�a7cease-fire by 20 July may have
been raised by Mendes-France in the hope of inducing his Gaullist
and other rightist supporters to accept harsh terms at Geneva. If the
Assembly authorizes such a move, however, he may be planning to
use it to justify to France's Western Allies a request for direct inter-
vention or internationalization of the war.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Saudi king may abrogate military agreements with US
According to Ambassador Wadsworth, Crown
Prince Faisal has stated that King Saud is
very angry with the United States and may
terminate the Americ n military mission
and the Dhahran Air Base Agreement if such action is recommended
by the Council of Ministers. Wadsworth expects the council sessions
to reopen on 11 July.
The ambassador comments that the situation
Is increasingly "brittle" and believes that Faisal's remarks were not
"mere skirmishing."
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Comment: While the king may not have
made a final decision, the council will probably reflect the king's
sentiment.
Wadsworth was informed on 27 June that
King Saud had terminated the Point IV program at the recommendation
of the council.
6. Iraqi foreign minister comments on Middle East problems:
Iraqi foreign minister Jamali, in com-
menting on major problems in the Middle
East, told the American delegation at the
UN that the Communists have a very well-
organized and effective anti-West propaganda
program in the Arab states which is very damaging to Western interests.
Taman stated that Iraq would propose discus-
sion of the North African problem in the General Assembly this fall
even if the other Arab and Asian states were unwilling to do so.
Regarding Palestine, the foreign minister
felt that the UN must act to internationalize Jerusalem. He added his
belief that peace was impossible in Palestine except perhaps through a
redivision of territory along the lines of the Bernadotte territorial plan,
which would have given Israel considerably less territory than it now
occupies. In conclusion, he said that the United States has primary
responsibility for the present situation there, and it is accordingly
responsible for solving the problem.
Comment: Jamali's views are significant
since they represent the opinions of an influential, American-educated
Arab leader. It was under Taman's premiership that Iraq signed the
US military aid agreement.
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7. Ex-premier Nun i Said decides not to participate in next Iraqi govern-
ment:
Iraqi elder statesman Nun i Said
will not
accept the responsibility of any cabinet
position, including the premiership, when
he returns to Baghdad in September. Because
o e se sac. s ere a. by his Constitutional Union Party in the recent elec-
tion, he feels that he cannot work with a new government and proposes
the dissolution of his party.
Comment: Nuri's unwillingness to partic-
ipate in a new government offers a serious setback to the prospects
of Iraqi adherence to the Turkish-Pakistani pact this fall.
Without Nun's support, neither jamali nor
any other Iraqi leader is likely to push Iraq's alignment with Turkey
and Pakistan.
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