CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/26

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03001370
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
8
Document Creation Date: 
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 26, 1954
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689427].pdf288.72 KB
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proved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 26 June 1954 Copy No. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO 26 V NO CHANGE IN CLASS. DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: Jeli REVIEWEF Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 80 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 0#4,/ �// TOP SECRET 'Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 rr. L.,. SUMMARY GENERAL 1. Chou En-lai said to have agreed to "two-stage" settlement in Vietnam (page 3). 2. Dutch fear Indonesia may abrogate union and provoke inter- national crisis (page 4). FAR EAST 3. Japan to seek billion dollar American aid program (page 4). SOUTHEAST ASIA 4. French reported implementing plan to abandon southern delta area (page 5). 5. Ablest Cambodian general may be dismissed (page 6). 6. Large Soviet delegation requests visas for Indonesian tour (page 6). SOUTH ASIA 7. Pakistan faces foreign exchange crisis (page 7). WESTERN EUROPE 8. Oslo formally rejects plan for stationing American air units in Norway (page 8). * * * * - 2 - 26 June 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 k.JI: "4"01 GENERAL 1. Chou En-lai said to have agreed to "two-stage't settlement in Vietnam: In a two-hour conversation at Bern on 23 June, Chou En-lai told Mendes-France a settlement in Vietnam should be reached in two stages, according to the acting chief renc e ega on at Geneva. Chou said an armistice should be reached in Vietnam as soon as possible, and a final political settle- ment should be reached thereafter by direct negotiations between the Vietnamese and the Viet Minh. In regard to Laos and Cambodia, Chou said the immediate problem was to obtain the withdrawal of all foreign forces, including the Viet Minh, after which the Laotian and Cambodian governments should arrange political settlements based on majority will. Chou insisted there must be no American bases in either state. Mendes-France complained to Chou that the Tilitary staff talks between the French and the Viet Minh at Geneva had been stalled for several days. Chou agreed to intervene with the Viet Minh to speed the talks. Comment: The Communists have previously maintained that "at least some" political questions must be settled as .a condition for the truce. Chou's statement suggests the Communists may now be thinking in terms of an early military settlement amounting to partition, postponing a political agreement. The Communists have recently arranged direct talks between the Viet Minh and the Laotian and Cambodian delegations at Geneva, and have urged further such talks. A bid may soon be made for direct Vietnamese-Viet Minh talks as well. The Communists have recently been proposing a Viet Minh withdrawal from Laos and Cambodia in exchange for neu- tralization of those states, but have insisted that native "resistance movements" will remain and must be recognized. 3 26 June 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Now, 1 2. Dutch fear Indonesia may abrogate union and provoke international crisis: Foreign Minister Luns believes that Dutch public opinion may force an appeal to the UN if, as he now fears, Indonesia unilaterally abrogates its union with the Netherlands and repudiates e financial agreement between the two governments. Luns doubts the UN would take any helpful action and consequently expects Dutch confidence in the UN, NATO, EDC, and other postwar institu- tions to be undermined. Luns also complained to Ambassador Matthews on 24 June that the Indonesians are "counting heavily" on assurances from American "official sources" that Dutch interests in Southeast Asia will receive little consideration in Washington. Comment: While the Dutch have long regarded the union statute as ( ear-T-1, they are seriously alarmed over the threat to their extensive economic interests in Southeast Asia. Discussions to end the union agreement are to start on 29 June, Both Dutch and Indonesians have contitn- hously sought American support for their positions, and an unsucces- ful appeal to the UN would prolbably revive Dutch resentment over the United States' role in the establishment of an independent Indonesia. FAR EAST 3. Japan to seek billion dollar American aid program: - 4 - 26 June 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 I: � Japanese officials, including Yoshida, have recently blamed Japan's economic ills on the United States. The im- pression also is being created that the United States is failing to meet its commitments toward japan. SOUTHEAST ASIA 4. French reported implementing plan to abandon southern delta area: An official of the Vietnamese Ministry of National Defense informed the American embassy in Saigon on 24 june that three days previously the French had withdrawn from much of the southern portion of the Tonkin delta, leaving the Vietnamese forces there without artillery support and fully exposed to the Viet Minh. The official said Vietnamese authorities plan to protest to the French concerning the withdrawal. General Salan had informed the embassy the previous day that the French had had to draw in their delta lines and might shortly have to evacuate the civilian populace outside those lines. Comment: The plan of the French to withdraw their units from iTirMithern delta area and leave its security to Vietnamese forces was recently reconsidered in the light of enemy capabilities and Vietnamese weaknesses, but has ap- parently been revived. Although this regrou.pment will result in an increase in French mobile reserves and an enhanced capability to protect the delta nucleus, it will have a profoundly disturbing effect on Vietnamese morale throughout the delta. -5- 26 June 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 1 1%.. L., 5. Ablest Cambodian general may be dismissed: Cambodian defense minister Tioulong, who is also commanding general of the Cambodian army, says the government's resignation, to relieve him of his portfolio. The imme- diate cause, he told American charg�oodman, was his failure to obey royal orders to provide honors recently to General Navarre. The king was so angered he decided to remove Tioulong from the Defense Ministry. It is not certain yet if Tioulong will also lose his position as head, of the army. Goodman comments that it is incredible the king would at this time discipline his most able lieutenant. Comment: Tioulong is generally considered the only Cambodian capable of holding the army together. Under his leadership, the Cambodians several days ago defeated one of the two regular Viet Minh battalions in Cambodia and sent it retreating north- ward toward Laos. The success of any plan for American assistance in training an effective army would be largely dependent on Tioulong's retention of command. 6. Large Soviet delegation requests visas for Indonesian tour: Members of the 71-man Soviet delegation to the Indonesian International Fair, be- ginning 1 August, have applied for six- month visitor's visas in order to "tour the Indonesian archipelago," The delegation includes a 31-man military group representing the Soviet air, army, and navy and an undetermined number of security and intelligence personnel. -6 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 26 june 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 1 Ut JLA.....A.L. *quo Comment: Indonesia opened its embassy In Moscow in April, but the Soviet Union has not yet established diplomatic representation in Indonesia. In line with its independent foreign policy, Indonesia's leftist government is likely to place a few restrictions on the delegation but in general will receive it sympathetically. During the past few months, a steady stream of foreign Communists and fellow travelers has visited Indonesia; many have been personally received by President Sukarno. SOUTH ASIA Pakistan faces foreign exchange crisis: Senior Pakistani officials concerned with economic development have told American officials that they believe a critical shortage of foreign exchange threatens Pakistan's po ca an econom c s ability. Karachi estimates the gap between available dollar and sterling resources and requirements for essential imports during the coming fiscal year at more than $90,000,000. The officials expressed the hope that the United States could assist in partially bridging the gap. They also hope to divert about $15,0009000 worth of American and Colombo plan aid to pay for industrial imports. Comment: The Pakistani regime's ability to re-establish its political prestige now depends largely on easing quickly the stringent economic position of consumers--particularly since the 30 May imposition of governor's rule in East Pakistan and the concomitant promise of economic relief. Diversion of present resources to consumer Items would force the abandonment of the country's industrial and agri- cultural development plans and thus make for recurring financial crises. - 7 - 26 Iune 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370 l.71-0-Z=V=1� *re WESTERN EUROPE 8. Oslo formally rejects plan for stationing American air units in Norway: Norwegian foreign minister Lange informed the American embassy on 23 June that his government cannot agree to the American proposal to assign air force units to Norway on a rotation basis,. He said that this would conflict with Norway's policy of not permitting the stationing of foreign troops on its terri- tory in peacetime. The only "practicable course" he saw for strength- ening the country's air defenses was for the United States to equip an additional Norwegian air wing. comment: Norway has now joined Denmark in formally rejecting the concept of foreign troops on its territory during peacetime. Government leaders agree that NATO requirements demand, greater air strength in northern Europe than the two countries can provide, but hold that the stationing of foreign troops would be politically unacceptable and would be regarded as provocative by the USSR. - 8- 26 June 54 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001370