CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/10/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000834
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: October 9, 1954

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9 October 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS iA
I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE; _.!?_-_e_ki.S.)
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 1 J; v% go REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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3.3(h)(2)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Uruguay may challenge Guatemalan credentials in UN (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Large air base nearing completion in East China (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Laotians bitter over Thai intrigues (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian parliamentary committee delays approval of oil agree-
ment (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Austria ready to accept Soviet offer to renew treaty talks (page 6)0
6. Bonn leaders fear London accords may promote revival of German
militarism (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Honduras elections on 10 October may be marked by disturbances
(page 7).
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GENERAL
Uruguay may challenge Guatemalan credentials in UN:
Uruguay's permanent UN representative,
Rodriguez Fabregat, plans to challenge
the credentials of the Guatemalan dele-
gation at the 12 October meeting of the
Credentials Committee, according to
a report reaching the American delegation. Fabregat allegedly
intends to charge that the Guatemalan delegation is not qualified
to sit in the General Assembly because its credentials were is-
sued by a regime which is not representative of the Guatemalan
people�
Ambassador Lodge comments that such
a move would offer the USSR an ideal opportunity to draw an
analogy between this and the Chinese representation issue.
Comment: The 6 October meeting of
the Credentials Committee�whose decisions are subject to
General Assembly approval--was adjourned until 12 October at
the request of Fabregat, who said he intended to discuss the
credentials of "certain states" In the General Assembly Uruguay,
as well as Argentina and Ecuador, has criticized the Security
Council's handling of an appeal from the former Arbenz govern-
ment in Guatemala.
While eventual approval of the
GuatemaLan delegation's credentials can be expected, an air-
ing of the issue would almost certainly arouse some criticism
of the United States,
FAR EAST
Large air base nearing completion in East China:
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Comment: Previous reports concerning
construction at Chuhsien have indicated it will be one of the larg-
est bases in East China. Jet fighters based there will be within
range of all the Nationalist-held islands, including Formosa it-
self. Other fields in East China have not been improved and made
suitable for sustained jet operations, but it is estimated they could
be made ready in from five days to two weeks.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Laotians bitter over Thai intrigues:
The Laotian premier told the American
minister in Vientiane on 6 October that
the Thai government seemed determined
to stir up trouble in Laos in order to
increase its inf1uene�d perhaps reduce Laos to vassalage. He
said his government knew the names of Thai police officers who
sheltered the assassins of Laos' defense minister both before and
after the 18 September crime. The Thai government had not yet
answered a request that the killers be turned over to Laos.
The premier said if Thai behavior does
not change, he would retaliate by sending armed bands across
the border and stirring up the 6,000,000 Laotians in Thailand.
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Comment: Laotian officials claim to
have evidence that agents of Laotian prince Petsarath, who has
lived in Thailand since 1946, carried out the 18 September kill-
ing with Thai government support.
I Thai leaders have traditionally regarded Laotians as in-
feriors and Laos as a buffer area. They might feel that with the
decline of French power in the area they should take steps to in-
stall a government in Laos subject to Thai control.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian parliamentary committee delays approval of oil agree-
ment:
The Iranian mixed parliamentary com-
mittee charged with examination of the
oil agreement is seriously troubled by
the agreement's failure to provide for
assured production levels after the third year, according to
-Ambassador Henderson. The committee has requested clarifi-
cation of production intentions from the consortium. The oppo-
sition can base its most effective objections against ratification
on the uncertainty of long-range production.
Henderson says the parliament "quite
possibly" will not ratify the agreement until the last week in
October. He reports, moreover, that he and the British ambas-
sador are increasingly concerned over the way things are going
in Tehran. Henderson adds that the situation is not one of bar-
gaining but of "great political delicacy!'
Comment:
committee approval of the agree-
ment, guarantees the amount of oil production for the
first three years. After that period, the consortium's plan is
to fit Iranian production into the over-all pattern of the Middle
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East output. The consortium hesitates to make a firm commit-
ment assuring Iran of specific production levels beyond three
years.
Opposition elements could use the deep-
seated Iranian suspicion of foreign intentions to impede, but
probably not prevent, approval of the agreement.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Austria ready to accept Soviet offer to renew treaty talks:
The Austrian government desires to
accept the Soviet proposal of 12 August
for new Austrian treaty talks, but to
point out that the conclusion of a treaty
an e rawa, o occupation forces are inseparable.
French and British officials seem to
feel that such a reply, which the Austrians wish to deliver to
Moscow on 12 October, would be acceptable to their governments,
according to tha American embassy in Vienna.
Foreign Minister Figl believes the note
should be sent promptly to take advantage of the favorable atmos-
phere following the successful London meeting and to counter
rumors that Austria is willing to sign a treaty without the com-
plete evacuation of foreign ,troops � Figl also believes that Molo-
tov's 6 October proposal for the evacuation of occupation forces
from Germany justifies an Austrian demand for evacuation.
Comment: The United States has
opposed an Austrian treaty which fails to provide for the with-
drawal of all occupation forces.
Moscow might reply to the proposed
Austrian note by expressing a willingness to reduce its occupa-
tion forces sharply. Soviet officials in Vienna have already
hinted at this The idea of a settlement on such terms has ap-
parently already been rejected in Austrian thinking, however.
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6. Bonn leaders fear London accords may promote revival of German
Adenauer and
other Bonn coalition leaders are said to
fear that once West German remilitariza-
don is started, a military-political machine will rise and displace
the present civilian control over military matters. Coalition lead-
ers are also reported to feel that the London decisions will make
European integration more difficult.
Comment: The Bonn defense planning
office is at present headed by elements devoted to the develop-
ment of German democracy. Some elements in this office,
however, as well as many former German officers, appear to
favor a return to the old Prussian militarism. As the new army
is organized and expanded, a dangerous power struggle could
develop, particularly since defense planning office officials
have not been allowed to develop popular support.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Honduras elections on 10 October may be marked by disturbances:
The American embassy in Tegucigalpa
believes there may be un-co-ordinated
local disturbances, with some danger
to American citizens, during and af-
ter the 10 October presidential and
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congressional elections in Honduras. The embassy does not
expect any organized hostilities, however.
Comment: Election frauds by any one
of the three contending paTtle-s�m�a3 well provoke violence, but
no attempt to seize the government by force is expected.
If, as is probable, none of the three
presidential candidates receives an absolute majority, congress
will choose between the two polling the most votes. Current es-
timates give the moderate Reformist Party, which has named
General Abraham Williams its candidate for president, a slight
edge but less than a majority in the Congress, with the Communist-
infiltrated Liberal Party running a close second. Strong political
pressures might then force a Reformist-Liberal coalition in favor
of Williams against the Nationalist Party's candidate, ex-dictator
Carias.
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